Top finisher
Johan Manzambi
0.35 finisher / 0.35 recent attack
Club hub
Resolving season-matched standings, fixtures, ratings and evidence.
Current state
#16
Team Snapshot
This season against last, table context, rating split, role leaders, the analyst brief and the Performance Index.
Season on season
Aston Villa are 1 point ahead of last season after 5 matches: 4 points against 3 in 2025/26, a season they finished #4 on 65 points.
Cumulative points curve & finish-line pace
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1653
⚠ Divergence: 373 pts
Table context
#14 Sunderland
GD -4
4
points
#15 Crystal Palace
GD -5
4
points
#16 Aston Villa
GD -5
4
points
#17 Bournemouth
GD -2
3
points
#18 Coventry City
GD -9
3
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / Managed load
Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.6 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 5 straight starts.
Top finisher
Johan Manzambi
0.35 finisher / 0.35 recent attack
Top creator
Johan Manzambi
0.23 creator / 0.28 recent creator
Top connector
Boubacar Kamara
0.29 control / MID
Top protector
Zion Suzuki
0.55 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Emiliano Buendía Stati
26 / 100 form / 0.22 recent attack
Highest load
John McGinn
32% load / 25 form
Unavailable context
Analyst brief
Aston Villa are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
9 absences; availability impact 44%; injuries 9, suspensions 0.
Aston Villa are #16 now and project to finish #6, with 4 points from 5 matches in 2026/27.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Aston Villa are carrying a stronger full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +30.4 vs last season stage pace +22.8 (+7.6).
Aston Villa are underperforming their own recent three-season pace baseline.
Current pace delta vs recent average: -30.4 points.
Aston Villa sit in the middle of their recent Premier League range rather than at an extreme.
Same-stage rank 3/4; best benchmark 2024/25.
Performance Index
Top-line read
Process improving
Aston Villa's chance differential in this spell is 0.87 xG per match better than their season level, without a finishing collapse offsetting it.
Sub-indices
+0.48 xG/90 against the season baseline.
+0.39 xGA/90 better than season norm.
+0.12 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 5 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.80 |
| Goal diff / game | +0.00 | -1.00 |
| xG for / game | 1.48 | 1.00 |
| xGA / game | 1.78 | 2.17 |
| xG diff / game | -0.30 | -1.17 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.15 | -0.20 |
| Defensive delta / game |
Consistency & variance
Swingy
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is +0.00 per match against the club's best 3-game spell.
Finishing swing is +0.05 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last 3 have come against average opponent rank 13.7, versus 9.2 across the season.
Lineup continuity is +0.06 against the season norm.
What might help
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
9 missing players and 44% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.
Best defensive spell
08-31 to 09-12
Aston Villa has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 5/5 across the season sample used here.
| +0.44 |
| +0.37 |
| Average opponent rank | 13.7 | 9.2 |
| Average rest days | 6.2 | 6.8 |
| Lineup continuity | 41% | 35% |
| Player load index | 82% | 72% |