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Sensible Stats / UEFA Champions League

Champions League Projections

Calibrated Dixon-Coles Poisson forecasting for European fixtures. Resolving squad fatigue, home advantage, and Monte Carlo tournament progression.

Match Projections

126 matches predicted
English Club SpotlightConf. 36%

Arsenal

Lille

2-1

Projected Score

Home 41%Draw 28%Away 32%

Expected Goals: 1.70 - 1.39

  • Lille hold a 65-point edge over Arsenal on the underlying team rating.
  • Arsenal come in with better recent form.
English Club SpotlightConf. 38%

Arsenal

Borussia Dortmund

1-2

Projected Score

Home 32%Draw 27%Away 41%

Expected Goals: 1.48 - 1.71

  • Borussia Dortmund hold a 150-point edge over Arsenal on the underlying team rating.
English Club SpotlightConf. 41%

Arsenal

Real Madrid

0-1

Projected Score

Home 28%Draw 30%Away 42%

Expected Goals: 1.13 - 1.47

  • Real Madrid hold a 280-point edge over Arsenal on the underlying team rating.
English Club SpotlightConf. 59%

Arsenal

Sabah FK

1-0

Projected Score

Home 53%Draw 28%Away 19%

Expected Goals: 1.86 - 0.81

  • Arsenal come in with better recent form.
English Club SpotlightConf. 35%

Aston Villa

Fenerbahçe SK

1-0

Projected Score

Home 36%Draw 32%Away 32%

Expected Goals: 1.33 - 1.23

  • Aston Villa come in with better recent form.
English Club SpotlightConf. 49%

Aston Villa

Viking FK

2-1

Projected Score

Home 46%Draw 28%Away 25%

Expected Goals: 1.92 - 1.23

  • Aston Villa come in with better recent form.
English Club SpotlightConf. 55%

Aston Villa

PSG

1-2

Projected Score

Home 25%Draw 26%Away 49%

Expected Goals: 1.29 - 2.18

  • PSG hold a 180-point edge over Aston Villa on the underlying team rating.
English Club SpotlightConf. 38%

Aston Villa

Borussia Dortmund

1-2

Projected Score

Home 32%Draw 26%Away 42%

Expected Goals: 1.66 - 1.93

  • Borussia Dortmund hold a 150-point edge over Aston Villa on the underlying team rating.
English Club SpotlightConf. 81%

Barcelona

Aston Villa

2-1

Projected Score

Home 63%Draw 22%Away 15%

Expected Goals: 2.47 - 1.09

  • Barcelona hold a 220-point edge over Aston Villa on the underlying team rating.
English Club SpotlightConf. 80%

Barcelona

Manchester City

2-1

Projected Score

Home 62%Draw 22%Away 15%

Expected Goals: 2.19 - 1.03

  • Barcelona hold a 220-point edge over Manchester City on the underlying team rating.
English Club SpotlightConf. 85%

Bayern Munich

Arsenal

2-0

Projected Score

Home 65%Draw 22%Away 13%

Expected Goals: 2.19 - 0.80

  • Bayern Munich hold a 240-point edge over Arsenal on the underlying team rating.
English Club SpotlightConf. 46%

Club Brugge

Liverpool

2-1

Projected Score

Home 44%Draw 27%Away 28%

Expected Goals: 1.72 - 1.55

  • Liverpool come in with better recent form.
English Club SpotlightConf. 42%

Fenerbahçe SK

Liverpool

1-0

Projected Score

Home 44%Draw 31%Away 25%

Expected Goals: 1.37 - 1.07

  • Liverpool come in with better recent form.
English Club SpotlightConf. 35%

Galatasaray

Aston Villa

2-1

Projected Score

Home 37%Draw 29%Away 33%

Expected Goals: 1.45 - 1.64

  • Aston Villa come in with better recent form.
English Club SpotlightConf. 43%

Inter Milan

Liverpool

2-1

Projected Score

Home 43%Draw 29%Away 28%

Expected Goals: 1.45 - 1.32

  • Inter Milan hold a 210-point edge over Liverpool on the underlying team rating.
  • Liverpool come in with better recent form.
English Club SpotlightConf. 35%

LASK Linz

Liverpool

1-0

Projected Score

Home 36%Draw 34%Away 30%

Expected Goals: 1.01 - 1.07

  • Liverpool come in with better recent form.
English Club SpotlightConf. 62%

Lens

Manchester City

2-1

Projected Score

Home 53%Draw 25%Away 22%

Expected Goals: 1.95 - 1.37

    English Club SpotlightConf. 38%

    Liverpool

    Villarreal

    2-1

    Projected Score

    Home 41%Draw 28%Away 31%

    Expected Goals: 1.82 - 1.47

    • Liverpool come in with better recent form.
    English Club SpotlightConf. 49%

    Liverpool

    FC Porto

    1-0

    Projected Score

    Home 48%Draw 31%Away 22%

    Expected Goals: 1.61 - 0.86

    • Liverpool come in with better recent form.
    English Club SpotlightConf. 35%

    Liverpool

    Lens

    1-2

    Projected Score

    Home 34%Draw 27%Away 39%

    Expected Goals: 1.61 - 1.77

      English Club SpotlightConf. 53%

      Manchester City

      PSG

      1-2

      Projected Score

      Home 25%Draw 27%Away 48%

      Expected Goals: 1.22 - 1.93

      • PSG hold a 180-point edge over Manchester City on the underlying team rating.
      English Club SpotlightConf. 35%

      Manchester City

      PAE AEK

      0-1

      Projected Score

      Home 31%Draw 34%Away 35%

      Expected Goals: 1.00 - 1.09

        English Club SpotlightConf. 35%

        Manchester City

        Napoli

        1-0

        Projected Score

        Home 41%Draw 34%Away 25%

        Expected Goals: 1.26 - 0.81

        • Manchester City come in with better recent form.
        English Club SpotlightConf. 49%

        Manchester City

        Sporting Lisbon

        1-2

        Projected Score

        Home 27%Draw 27%Away 46%

        Expected Goals: 1.23 - 1.70

        • Sporting Lisbon hold a 135-point edge over Manchester City on the underlying team rating.
        English Club SpotlightConf. 35%

        RB Leipzig

        Manchester City

        2-1

        Projected Score

        Home 38%Draw 28%Away 34%

        Expected Goals: 1.32 - 1.65

        • RB Leipzig hold a 110-point edge over Manchester City on the underlying team rating.
        • Manchester City come in with better recent form.
        English Club SpotlightConf. 63%

        Real Betis Balompié

        Arsenal

        2-1

        Projected Score

        Home 53%Draw 25%Away 22%

        Expected Goals: 1.95 - 1.30

          English Club SpotlightConf. 45%

          Slavia Prague

          Arsenal

          2-1

          Projected Score

          Home 44%Draw 27%Away 28%

          Expected Goals: 1.62 - 1.46

          • Arsenal come in with better recent form.
          English Club SpotlightConf. 46%

          Slavia Prague

          Aston Villa

          2-1

          Projected Score

          Home 45%Draw 27%Away 28%

          Expected Goals: 1.83 - 1.64

          • Aston Villa come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 35%

          AS Roma

          Real Madrid

          0-1

          Projected Score

          Home 32%Draw 31%Away 37%

          Expected Goals: 1.11 - 1.33

          • Real Madrid hold a 260-point edge over AS Roma on the underlying team rating.
          • Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 62%

          AS Roma

          Slovan Bratislava

          2-0

          Projected Score

          Home 54%Draw 27%Away 19%

          Expected Goals: 2.05 - 0.99

          • AS Roma come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 38%

          AS Roma

          Sporting Lisbon

          0-1

          Projected Score

          Home 30%Draw 30%Away 40%

          Expected Goals: 1.14 - 1.54

          • Sporting Lisbon hold a 115-point edge over AS Roma on the underlying team rating.
          • Sporting Lisbon come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 45%

          AS Roma

          Lille

          2-1

          Projected Score

          Home 44%Draw 29%Away 27%

          Expected Goals: 1.66 - 1.26

          • Lille hold a 45-point edge over AS Roma on the underlying team rating.
          • AS Roma come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 39%

          Atletico Madrid

          Manchester United

          2-1

          Projected Score

          Home 41%Draw 29%Away 30%

          Expected Goals: 1.33 - 1.49

          • Atletico Madrid hold a 140-point edge over Manchester United on the underlying team rating.
          • Manchester United come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 58%

          Atletico Madrid

          Bayern Munich

          0-2

          Projected Score

          Home 22%Draw 27%Away 51%

          Expected Goals: 0.95 - 2.10

          • Bayern Munich hold a 100-point edge over Atletico Madrid on the underlying team rating.
          • Bayern Munich come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 52%

          Atletico Madrid

          Viking FK

          2-1

          Projected Score

          Home 48%Draw 27%Away 25%

          Expected Goals: 1.74 - 1.23

          • Atletico Madrid hold a 120-point edge over Viking FK on the underlying team rating.
          UCL Group StageConf. 35%

          Atletico Madrid

          Fenerbahçe SK

          1-0

          Projected Score

          Home 37%Draw 31%Away 32%

          Expected Goals: 1.21 - 1.23

          • Atletico Madrid hold a 120-point edge over Fenerbahçe SK on the underlying team rating.
          • Fenerbahçe SK come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 50%

          Barcelona

          Como 1907

          2-1

          Projected Score

          Home 47%Draw 25%Away 28%

          Expected Goals: 1.98 - 1.56

          • Barcelona hold a 200-point edge over Como 1907 on the underlying team rating.
          UCL Group StageConf. 88%

          Bayern Munich

          Slavia Prague

          2-0

          Projected Score

          Home 68%Draw 20%Away 13%

          Expected Goals: 2.60 - 0.99

          • Bayern Munich hold a 220-point edge over Slavia Prague on the underlying team rating.
          • Bayern Munich come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 77%

          Bayern Munich

          Real Betis Balompié

          2-1

          Projected Score

          Home 60%Draw 22%Away 18%

          Expected Goals: 2.53 - 1.19

          • Bayern Munich hold a 220-point edge over Real Betis Balompié on the underlying team rating.
          UCL Group StageConf. 68%

          Bodo/Glimt

          Borussia Dortmund

          1-2

          Projected Score

          Home 20%Draw 24%Away 56%

          Expected Goals: 1.07 - 2.35

          • Borussia Dortmund hold a 130-point edge over Bodo/Glimt on the underlying team rating.
          • Borussia Dortmund come in with better recent form.
          UCL Group StageConf. 47%

          Bodo/Glimt

          Lille

          1-2

          Projected Score

          Home 27%Draw 28%Away 45%

          Expected Goals: 1.23 - 2.10

          • Lille hold a 45-point edge over Bodo/Glimt on the underlying team rating.
          UCL Group StageConf. 35%

          Bodo/Glimt

          LASK Linz

          0-1

          Projected Score

          Home 29%Draw 35%Away 36%

          Expected Goals: 0.86 - 1.22

            UCL Group StageConf. 40%

            Bodo/Glimt

            Atletico Madrid

            0-1

            Projected Score

            Home 29%Draw 30%Away 42%

            Expected Goals: 1.07 - 1.71

            • Atletico Madrid hold a 120-point edge over Bodo/Glimt on the underlying team rating.
            UCL Group StageConf. 54%

            Borussia Dortmund

            Real Betis Balompié

            2-1

            Projected Score

            Home 49%Draw 23%Away 28%

            Expected Goals: 2.32 - 1.87

            • Borussia Dortmund hold a 130-point edge over Real Betis Balompié on the underlying team rating.
            UCL Group StageConf. 66%

            Borussia Dortmund

            Inter Milan

            2-1

            Projected Score

            Home 55%Draw 24%Away 21%

            Expected Goals: 2.23 - 1.30

            • Inter Milan hold a 60-point edge over Borussia Dortmund on the underlying team rating.
            • Borussia Dortmund come in with better recent form.
            UCL Group StageConf. 44%

            Borussia Dortmund

            PAE AEK

            1-0

            Projected Score

            Home 44%Draw 29%Away 27%

            Expected Goals: 1.43 - 1.23

            • Borussia Dortmund hold a 130-point edge over PAE AEK on the underlying team rating.
            UCL Group StageConf. 35%

            Club Brugge

            Lens

            1-2

            Projected Score

            Home 37%Draw 25%Away 38%

            Expected Goals: 1.87 - 2.17

            • Lens come in with better recent form.
            UCL Group StageConf. 73%

            Club Brugge

            Bodo/Glimt

            2-1

            Projected Score

            Home 59%Draw 24%Away 17%

            Expected Goals: 2.44 - 1.06

              UCL Group StageConf. 74%

              Como 1907

              Manchester United

              2-1

              Projected Score

              Home 60%Draw 24%Away 17%

              Expected Goals: 2.11 - 1.20

                UCL Group StageConf. 50%

                Como 1907

                PAE AEK

                1-0

                Projected Score

                Home 48%Draw 30%Away 22%

                Expected Goals: 1.51 - 0.99

                  UCL Group StageConf. 40%

                  Como 1907

                  PSG

                  2-1

                  Projected Score

                  Home 43%Draw 26%Away 32%

                  Expected Goals: 1.85 - 1.75

                  • PSG hold a 160-point edge over Como 1907 on the underlying team rating.
                  UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                  FC Porto

                  PSV

                  0-1

                  Projected Score

                  Home 28%Draw 33%Away 39%

                  Expected Goals: 0.85 - 1.29

                  • PSV hold a 65-point edge over FC Porto on the underlying team rating.
                  • PSV come in with better recent form.
                  UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                  FC Porto

                  Napoli

                  0-0

                  Projected Score

                  Home 33%Draw 36%Away 31%

                  Expected Goals: 0.86 - 0.94

                    UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                    FC Porto

                    Slavia Prague

                    1-2

                    Projected Score

                    Home 32%Draw 30%Away 38%

                    Expected Goals: 1.24 - 1.60

                      UCL Group StageConf. 47%

                      Fenerbahçe SK

                      Slavia Prague

                      2-1

                      Projected Score

                      Home 45%Draw 29%Away 26%

                      Expected Goals: 1.68 - 1.25

                      • Fenerbahçe SK come in with better recent form.
                      UCL Group StageConf. 47%

                      Fenerbahçe SK

                      Villarreal

                      2-1

                      Projected Score

                      Home 45%Draw 29%Away 26%

                      Expected Goals: 1.68 - 1.25

                      • Fenerbahçe SK come in with better recent form.
                      UCL Group StageConf. 64%

                      Feyenoord

                      Como 1907

                      1-2

                      Projected Score

                      Home 21%Draw 25%Away 54%

                      Expected Goals: 1.18 - 2.35

                      • Como 1907 come in with better recent form.
                      UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                      Feyenoord

                      Inter Milan

                      1-2

                      Projected Score

                      Home 35%Draw 28%Away 37%

                      Expected Goals: 1.44 - 1.73

                      • Inter Milan hold a 150-point edge over Feyenoord on the underlying team rating.
                      UCL Group StageConf. 43%

                      Feyenoord

                      FC Porto

                      1-0

                      Projected Score

                      Home 44%Draw 30%Away 26%

                      Expected Goals: 1.51 - 1.21

                        UCL Group StageConf. 39%

                        Feyenoord

                        RB Leipzig

                        2-1

                        Projected Score

                        Home 42%Draw 27%Away 31%

                        Expected Goals: 1.80 - 1.68

                        • RB Leipzig hold a 50-point edge over Feyenoord on the underlying team rating.
                        UCL Group StageConf. 64%

                        Galatasaray

                        Barcelona

                        1-2

                        Projected Score

                        Home 22%Draw 25%Away 54%

                        Expected Goals: 1.12 - 2.35

                        • Barcelona hold a 200-point edge over Galatasaray on the underlying team rating.
                        • Barcelona come in with better recent form.
                        UCL Group StageConf. 57%

                        Galatasaray

                        Stuttgart

                        1-2

                        Projected Score

                        Home 23%Draw 26%Away 51%

                        Expected Goals: 1.15 - 2.20

                        • Stuttgart hold a 70-point edge over Galatasaray on the underlying team rating.
                        • Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
                        UCL Group StageConf. 48%

                        Galatasaray

                        Feyenoord

                        2-1

                        Projected Score

                        Home 45%Draw 27%Away 27%

                        Expected Goals: 1.92 - 1.45

                          UCL Group StageConf. 44%

                          Inter Milan

                          Club Brugge

                          2-1

                          Projected Score

                          Home 44%Draw 26%Away 29%

                          Expected Goals: 1.77 - 1.53

                          • Inter Milan hold a 190-point edge over Club Brugge on the underlying team rating.
                          UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                          Inter Milan

                          Shakhtar Donetsk

                          1-0

                          Projected Score

                          Home 38%Draw 31%Away 30%

                          Expected Goals: 1.23 - 1.22

                          • Inter Milan hold a 190-point edge over Shakhtar Donetsk on the underlying team rating.
                          • Shakhtar Donetsk come in with better recent form.
                          UCL Group StageConf. 44%

                          Inter Milan

                          Stuttgart

                          1-2

                          Projected Score

                          Home 29%Draw 27%Away 44%

                          Expected Goals: 1.21 - 1.87

                          • Inter Milan hold a 120-point edge over Stuttgart on the underlying team rating.
                          • Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
                          UCL Group StageConf. 44%

                          LASK Linz

                          Slovan Bratislava

                          1-0

                          Projected Score

                          Home 45%Draw 31%Away 24%

                          Expected Goals: 1.51 - 0.99

                            UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                            LASK Linz

                            Fenerbahçe SK

                            0-0

                            Projected Score

                            Home 32%Draw 36%Away 32%

                            Expected Goals: 0.86 - 0.99

                            • Fenerbahçe SK come in with better recent form.
                            UCL Group StageConf. 37%

                            LASK Linz

                            FC Porto

                            1-0

                            Projected Score

                            Home 43%Draw 35%Away 22%

                            Expected Goals: 1.10 - 0.73

                              UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                              Lens

                              Sporting Lisbon

                              1-2

                              Projected Score

                              Home 37%Draw 25%Away 38%

                              Expected Goals: 1.73 - 1.97

                              • Sporting Lisbon hold a 115-point edge over Lens on the underlying team rating.
                              UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                              Lens

                              Como 1907

                              1-2

                              Projected Score

                              Home 37%Draw 26%Away 38%

                              Expected Goals: 1.77 - 2.08

                                UCL Group StageConf. 88%

                                Lens

                                Bodo/Glimt

                                2-0

                                Projected Score

                                Home 68%Draw 20%Away 12%

                                Expected Goals: 2.60 - 0.94

                                • Lens come in with better recent form.
                                UCL Group StageConf. 59%

                                Lille

                                Galatasaray

                                2-1

                                Projected Score

                                Home 51%Draw 25%Away 23%

                                Expected Goals: 2.14 - 1.41

                                • Lille hold a 45-point edge over Galatasaray on the underlying team rating.
                                UCL Group StageConf. 60%

                                Lille

                                Bayern Munich

                                1-2

                                Projected Score

                                Home 24%Draw 25%Away 51%

                                Expected Goals: 1.17 - 2.35

                                • Bayern Munich hold a 175-point edge over Lille on the underlying team rating.
                                • Bayern Munich come in with better recent form.
                                UCL Group StageConf. 68%

                                Lille

                                Slovan Bratislava

                                2-1

                                Projected Score

                                Home 56%Draw 24%Away 20%

                                Expected Goals: 2.60 - 1.41

                                • Lille hold a 45-point edge over Slovan Bratislava on the underlying team rating.
                                UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                Manchester United

                                AS Roma

                                1-0

                                Projected Score

                                Home 37%Draw 32%Away 31%

                                Expected Goals: 1.40 - 1.09

                                • Manchester United come in with better recent form.
                                UCL Group StageConf. 52%

                                Manchester United

                                RB Leipzig

                                2-1

                                Projected Score

                                Home 48%Draw 27%Away 25%

                                Expected Goals: 2.15 - 1.12

                                • RB Leipzig hold a 110-point edge over Manchester United on the underlying team rating.
                                • Manchester United come in with better recent form.
                                UCL Group StageConf. 57%

                                Manchester United

                                Bayern Munich

                                1-2

                                Projected Score

                                Home 22%Draw 27%Away 51%

                                Expected Goals: 1.11 - 1.86

                                • Bayern Munich hold a 240-point edge over Manchester United on the underlying team rating.
                                UCL Group StageConf. 49%

                                Napoli

                                Bodo/Glimt

                                1-0

                                Projected Score

                                Home 49%Draw 32%Away 19%

                                Expected Goals: 1.43 - 0.73

                                  UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                  Napoli

                                  Club Brugge

                                  1-0

                                  Projected Score

                                  Home 37%Draw 32%Away 31%

                                  Expected Goals: 1.24 - 1.25

                                    UCL Group StageConf. 37%

                                    Napoli

                                    Viking FK

                                    1-0

                                    Projected Score

                                    Home 41%Draw 33%Away 26%

                                    Expected Goals: 1.24 - 0.99

                                      UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                      PAE AEK

                                      Real Madrid

                                      1-0

                                      Projected Score

                                      Home 35%Draw 33%Away 32%

                                      Expected Goals: 1.11 - 1.05

                                      • Real Madrid hold a 260-point edge over PAE AEK on the underlying team rating.
                                      UCL Group StageConf. 59%

                                      PAE AEK

                                      Galatasaray

                                      1-0

                                      Projected Score

                                      Home 53%Draw 29%Away 18%

                                      Expected Goals: 1.68 - 0.78

                                      • PAE AEK come in with better recent form.
                                      UCL Group StageConf. 37%

                                      PAE AEK

                                      AS Roma

                                      1-0

                                      Projected Score

                                      Home 42%Draw 34%Away 23%

                                      Expected Goals: 1.16 - 0.78

                                      • PAE AEK come in with better recent form.
                                      UCL Group StageConf. 44%

                                      PSG

                                      Barcelona

                                      2-1

                                      Projected Score

                                      Home 44%Draw 26%Away 29%

                                      Expected Goals: 1.97 - 1.64

                                        UCL Group StageConf. 69%

                                        PSG

                                        AS Roma

                                        2-0

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 57%Draw 25%Away 18%

                                        Expected Goals: 2.05 - 0.96

                                        • PSG hold a 160-point edge over AS Roma on the underlying team rating.
                                        • PSG come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 88%

                                        PSG

                                        Galatasaray

                                        2-0

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 69%Draw 19%Away 12%

                                        Expected Goals: 2.60 - 0.96

                                        • PSG hold a 160-point edge over Galatasaray on the underlying team rating.
                                        • PSG come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 49%

                                        PSV

                                        Club Brugge

                                        2-1

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 47%Draw 28%Away 25%

                                        Expected Goals: 1.71 - 1.23

                                        • PSV hold a 65-point edge over Club Brugge on the underlying team rating.
                                        • PSV come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 45%

                                        PSV

                                        Atletico Madrid

                                        1-0

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 46%Draw 30%Away 24%

                                        Expected Goals: 1.48 - 1.01

                                        • Atletico Madrid hold a 55-point edge over PSV on the underlying team rating.
                                        • PSV come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                        PSV

                                        Stuttgart

                                        0-1

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 31%Draw 30%Away 38%

                                        Expected Goals: 1.17 - 1.51

                                        • Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                        RB Leipzig

                                        PSV

                                        0-1

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 32%Draw 31%Away 37%

                                        Expected Goals: 1.18 - 1.55

                                        • PSV come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 43%

                                        RB Leipzig

                                        Lens

                                        1-2

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 31%Draw 25%Away 44%

                                        Expected Goals: 1.53 - 2.31

                                        • RB Leipzig hold a 90-point edge over Lens on the underlying team rating.
                                        • Lens come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                        RB Leipzig

                                        Shakhtar Donetsk

                                        0-1

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 34%Draw 31%Away 36%

                                        Expected Goals: 1.19 - 1.52

                                        • RB Leipzig hold a 90-point edge over Shakhtar Donetsk on the underlying team rating.
                                        • Shakhtar Donetsk come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 77%

                                        Real Betis Balompié

                                        FC Porto

                                        2-0

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 61%Draw 24%Away 15%

                                        Expected Goals: 2.26 - 0.94

                                        • Real Betis Balompié come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 81%

                                        Real Betis Balompié

                                        Feyenoord

                                        2-1

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 63%Draw 21%Away 16%

                                        Expected Goals: 2.60 - 1.28

                                        • Real Betis Balompié come in with better recent form.
                                        UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                        Real Betis Balompié

                                        Como 1907

                                        1-2

                                        Projected Score

                                        Home 37%Draw 26%Away 38%

                                        Expected Goals: 1.77 - 2.08

                                          UCL Group StageConf. 80%

                                          Real Madrid

                                          RB Leipzig

                                          2-0

                                          Projected Score

                                          Home 62%Draw 23%Away 15%

                                          Expected Goals: 2.38 - 0.97

                                          • Real Madrid hold a 170-point edge over RB Leipzig on the underlying team rating.
                                          • Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
                                          UCL Group StageConf. 53%

                                          Real Madrid

                                          PSV

                                          1-0

                                          Projected Score

                                          Home 50%Draw 29%Away 21%

                                          Expected Goals: 1.54 - 0.96

                                          • Real Madrid hold a 195-point edge over PSV on the underlying team rating.
                                          • Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
                                          UCL Group StageConf. 62%

                                          Real Madrid

                                          LASK Linz

                                          1-0

                                          Projected Score

                                          Home 55%Draw 29%Away 16%

                                          Expected Goals: 1.56 - 0.70

                                          • Real Madrid hold a 260-point edge over LASK Linz on the underlying team rating.
                                          • Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
                                          UCL Group StageConf. 42%

                                          Sabah FK

                                          Slavia Prague

                                          1-2

                                          Projected Score

                                          Home 29%Draw 28%Away 43%

                                          Expected Goals: 1.24 - 1.95

                                            UCL Group StageConf. 65%

                                            Sabah FK

                                            Borussia Dortmund

                                            1-2

                                            Projected Score

                                            Home 21%Draw 24%Away 55%

                                            Expected Goals: 1.07 - 2.35

                                            • Borussia Dortmund hold a 130-point edge over Sabah FK on the underlying team rating.
                                            • Borussia Dortmund come in with better recent form.
                                            UCL Group StageConf. 76%

                                            Sabah FK

                                            Barcelona

                                            0-2

                                            Projected Score

                                            Home 16%Draw 23%Away 61%

                                            Expected Goals: 0.83 - 2.35

                                            • Barcelona hold a 200-point edge over Sabah FK on the underlying team rating.
                                            • Barcelona come in with better recent form.
                                            UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                            Sabah FK

                                            Napoli

                                            0-1

                                            Projected Score

                                            Home 30%Draw 35%Away 35%

                                            Expected Goals: 0.86 - 1.15

                                              UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                              Shakhtar Donetsk

                                              PAE AEK

                                              0-0

                                              Projected Score

                                              Home 34%Draw 36%Away 31%

                                              Expected Goals: 0.92 - 0.99

                                              • PAE AEK come in with better recent form.
                                              UCL Group StageConf. 38%

                                              Shakhtar Donetsk

                                              Sporting Lisbon

                                              0-1

                                              Projected Score

                                              Home 30%Draw 30%Away 40%

                                              Expected Goals: 1.14 - 1.54

                                              • Sporting Lisbon hold a 115-point edge over Shakhtar Donetsk on the underlying team rating.
                                              • Sporting Lisbon come in with better recent form.
                                              UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                              Shakhtar Donetsk

                                              Fenerbahçe SK

                                              1-0

                                              Projected Score

                                              Home 39%Draw 34%Away 27%

                                              Expected Goals: 1.16 - 0.99

                                                UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                                Shakhtar Donetsk

                                                Real Madrid

                                                0-1

                                                Projected Score

                                                Home 32%Draw 31%Away 37%

                                                Expected Goals: 1.11 - 1.33

                                                • Real Madrid hold a 260-point edge over Shakhtar Donetsk on the underlying team rating.
                                                • Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
                                                UCL Group StageConf. 46%

                                                Slavia Prague

                                                Villarreal

                                                2-1

                                                Projected Score

                                                Home 45%Draw 25%Away 30%

                                                Expected Goals: 2.11 - 1.80

                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 66%

                                                  Slovan Bratislava

                                                  Stuttgart

                                                  1-2

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 21%Draw 24%Away 55%

                                                  Expected Goals: 1.15 - 2.35

                                                  • Stuttgart hold a 70-point edge over Slovan Bratislava on the underlying team rating.
                                                  • Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 53%

                                                  Slovan Bratislava

                                                  Real Betis Balompié

                                                  1-2

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 27%Draw 25%Away 48%

                                                  Expected Goals: 1.49 - 2.35

                                                  • Real Betis Balompié come in with better recent form.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 36%

                                                  Slovan Bratislava

                                                  Shakhtar Donetsk

                                                  1-2

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 30%Draw 30%Away 39%

                                                  Expected Goals: 1.16 - 1.74

                                                  • Shakhtar Donetsk come in with better recent form.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                                  Slovan Bratislava

                                                  Inter Milan

                                                  1-2

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 34%Draw 28%Away 38%

                                                  Expected Goals: 1.43 - 1.84

                                                  • Inter Milan hold a 190-point edge over Slovan Bratislava on the underlying team rating.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 72%

                                                  Sporting Lisbon

                                                  LASK Linz

                                                  1-0

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 59%Draw 26%Away 15%

                                                  Expected Goals: 1.81 - 0.72

                                                  • Sporting Lisbon hold a 115-point edge over LASK Linz on the underlying team rating.
                                                  • Sporting Lisbon come in with better recent form.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 75%

                                                  Sporting Lisbon

                                                  Manchester United

                                                  2-1

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 60%Draw 23%Away 17%

                                                  Expected Goals: 2.00 - 1.17

                                                  • Sporting Lisbon hold a 135-point edge over Manchester United on the underlying team rating.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 39%

                                                  Sporting Lisbon

                                                  Barcelona

                                                  2-1

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 42%Draw 27%Away 31%

                                                  Expected Goals: 1.74 - 1.65

                                                  • Barcelona hold a 85-point edge over Sporting Lisbon on the underlying team rating.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 75%

                                                  Stuttgart

                                                  Atletico Madrid

                                                  2-1

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 60%Draw 24%Away 16%

                                                  Expected Goals: 2.23 - 1.01

                                                  • Atletico Madrid hold a 50-point edge over Stuttgart on the underlying team rating.
                                                  • Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 76%

                                                  Stuttgart

                                                  Lille

                                                  2-1

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 60%Draw 22%Away 17%

                                                  Expected Goals: 2.56 - 1.25

                                                  • Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 79%

                                                  Stuttgart

                                                  Club Brugge

                                                  2-1

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 61%Draw 22%Away 17%

                                                  Expected Goals: 2.58 - 1.23

                                                  • Stuttgart hold a 70-point edge over Club Brugge on the underlying team rating.
                                                  • Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 69%

                                                  Viking FK

                                                  Bayern Munich

                                                  0-2

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 19%Draw 25%Away 57%

                                                  Expected Goals: 0.92 - 2.35

                                                  • Bayern Munich hold a 220-point edge over Viking FK on the underlying team rating.
                                                  • Bayern Munich come in with better recent form.
                                                  UCL Group StageConf. 55%

                                                  Viking FK

                                                  Sabah FK

                                                  2-1

                                                  Projected Score

                                                  Home 50%Draw 28%Away 22%

                                                  Expected Goals: 1.82 - 1.06

                                                    UCL Group StageConf. 48%

                                                    Viking FK

                                                    Feyenoord

                                                    2-1

                                                    Projected Score

                                                    Home 45%Draw 27%Away 27%

                                                    Expected Goals: 1.92 - 1.45

                                                      UCL Group StageConf. 35%

                                                      Viking FK

                                                      PSV

                                                      0-1

                                                      Projected Score

                                                      Home 32%Draw 31%Away 37%

                                                      Expected Goals: 1.15 - 1.46

                                                      • PSV hold a 65-point edge over Viking FK on the underlying team rating.
                                                      • PSV come in with better recent form.
                                                      UCL Group StageConf. 44%

                                                      Villarreal

                                                      Napoli

                                                      1-0

                                                      Projected Score

                                                      Home 45%Draw 31%Away 25%

                                                      Expected Goals: 1.47 - 1.06

                                                        UCL Group StageConf. 54%

                                                        Villarreal

                                                        PSG

                                                        1-2

                                                        Projected Score

                                                        Home 27%Draw 24%Away 49%

                                                        Expected Goals: 1.42 - 2.35

                                                        • PSG hold a 160-point edge over Villarreal on the underlying team rating.
                                                        • PSG come in with better recent form.
                                                        UCL Group StageConf. 70%

                                                        Villarreal

                                                        Sabah FK

                                                        2-1

                                                        Projected Score

                                                        Home 58%Draw 25%Away 18%

                                                        Expected Goals: 2.29 - 1.06

                                                          UCL Group StageConf. 43%

                                                          Villarreal

                                                          Manchester United

                                                          2-1

                                                          Projected Score

                                                          Home 43%Draw 27%Away 29%

                                                          Expected Goals: 1.62 - 1.72

                                                          • Manchester United come in with better recent form.