Champions League Projections
Calibrated Dixon-Coles Poisson forecasting for European fixtures. Resolving squad fatigue, home advantage, and Monte Carlo tournament progression.
Match Projections
126 matches predictedArsenal
Lille
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.70 - 1.39
- Lille hold a 65-point edge over Arsenal on the underlying team rating.
- Arsenal come in with better recent form.
Arsenal
Borussia Dortmund
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.48 - 1.71
- Borussia Dortmund hold a 150-point edge over Arsenal on the underlying team rating.
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.13 - 1.47
- Real Madrid hold a 280-point edge over Arsenal on the underlying team rating.
Arsenal
Sabah FK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.86 - 0.81
- Arsenal come in with better recent form.
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe SK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.33 - 1.23
- Aston Villa come in with better recent form.
Aston Villa
Viking FK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.92 - 1.23
- Aston Villa come in with better recent form.
Aston Villa
PSG
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.29 - 2.18
- PSG hold a 180-point edge over Aston Villa on the underlying team rating.
Aston Villa
Borussia Dortmund
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.66 - 1.93
- Borussia Dortmund hold a 150-point edge over Aston Villa on the underlying team rating.
Barcelona
Aston Villa
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.47 - 1.09
- Barcelona hold a 220-point edge over Aston Villa on the underlying team rating.
Barcelona
Manchester City
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.19 - 1.03
- Barcelona hold a 220-point edge over Manchester City on the underlying team rating.
Bayern Munich
Arsenal
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.19 - 0.80
- Bayern Munich hold a 240-point edge over Arsenal on the underlying team rating.
Club Brugge
Liverpool
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.72 - 1.55
- Liverpool come in with better recent form.
Fenerbahçe SK
Liverpool
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.37 - 1.07
- Liverpool come in with better recent form.
Galatasaray
Aston Villa
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.45 - 1.64
- Aston Villa come in with better recent form.
Inter Milan
Liverpool
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.45 - 1.32
- Inter Milan hold a 210-point edge over Liverpool on the underlying team rating.
- Liverpool come in with better recent form.
LASK Linz
Liverpool
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.01 - 1.07
- Liverpool come in with better recent form.
Lens
Manchester City
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.95 - 1.37
Liverpool
Villarreal
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.82 - 1.47
- Liverpool come in with better recent form.
Liverpool
FC Porto
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.61 - 0.86
- Liverpool come in with better recent form.
Liverpool
Lens
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.61 - 1.77
Manchester City
PSG
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.22 - 1.93
- PSG hold a 180-point edge over Manchester City on the underlying team rating.
Manchester City
PAE AEK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.00 - 1.09
Manchester City
Napoli
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.26 - 0.81
- Manchester City come in with better recent form.
Manchester City
Sporting Lisbon
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.23 - 1.70
- Sporting Lisbon hold a 135-point edge over Manchester City on the underlying team rating.
RB Leipzig
Manchester City
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.32 - 1.65
- RB Leipzig hold a 110-point edge over Manchester City on the underlying team rating.
- Manchester City come in with better recent form.
Real Betis Balompié
Arsenal
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.95 - 1.30
Slavia Prague
Arsenal
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.62 - 1.46
- Arsenal come in with better recent form.
Slavia Prague
Aston Villa
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.83 - 1.64
- Aston Villa come in with better recent form.
AS Roma
Real Madrid
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.11 - 1.33
- Real Madrid hold a 260-point edge over AS Roma on the underlying team rating.
- Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
AS Roma
Slovan Bratislava
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.05 - 0.99
- AS Roma come in with better recent form.
AS Roma
Sporting Lisbon
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.14 - 1.54
- Sporting Lisbon hold a 115-point edge over AS Roma on the underlying team rating.
- Sporting Lisbon come in with better recent form.
AS Roma
Lille
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.66 - 1.26
- Lille hold a 45-point edge over AS Roma on the underlying team rating.
- AS Roma come in with better recent form.
Atletico Madrid
Manchester United
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.33 - 1.49
- Atletico Madrid hold a 140-point edge over Manchester United on the underlying team rating.
- Manchester United come in with better recent form.
Atletico Madrid
Bayern Munich
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 0.95 - 2.10
- Bayern Munich hold a 100-point edge over Atletico Madrid on the underlying team rating.
- Bayern Munich come in with better recent form.
Atletico Madrid
Viking FK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.74 - 1.23
- Atletico Madrid hold a 120-point edge over Viking FK on the underlying team rating.
Atletico Madrid
Fenerbahçe SK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.21 - 1.23
- Atletico Madrid hold a 120-point edge over Fenerbahçe SK on the underlying team rating.
- Fenerbahçe SK come in with better recent form.
Barcelona
Como 1907
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.98 - 1.56
- Barcelona hold a 200-point edge over Como 1907 on the underlying team rating.
Bayern Munich
Slavia Prague
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.60 - 0.99
- Bayern Munich hold a 220-point edge over Slavia Prague on the underlying team rating.
- Bayern Munich come in with better recent form.
Bayern Munich
Real Betis Balompié
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.53 - 1.19
- Bayern Munich hold a 220-point edge over Real Betis Balompié on the underlying team rating.
Bodo/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.07 - 2.35
- Borussia Dortmund hold a 130-point edge over Bodo/Glimt on the underlying team rating.
- Borussia Dortmund come in with better recent form.
Bodo/Glimt
Lille
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.23 - 2.10
- Lille hold a 45-point edge over Bodo/Glimt on the underlying team rating.
Bodo/Glimt
LASK Linz
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 0.86 - 1.22
Bodo/Glimt
Atletico Madrid
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.07 - 1.71
- Atletico Madrid hold a 120-point edge over Bodo/Glimt on the underlying team rating.
Borussia Dortmund
Real Betis Balompié
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.32 - 1.87
- Borussia Dortmund hold a 130-point edge over Real Betis Balompié on the underlying team rating.
Borussia Dortmund
Inter Milan
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.23 - 1.30
- Inter Milan hold a 60-point edge over Borussia Dortmund on the underlying team rating.
- Borussia Dortmund come in with better recent form.
Borussia Dortmund
PAE AEK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.43 - 1.23
- Borussia Dortmund hold a 130-point edge over PAE AEK on the underlying team rating.
Club Brugge
Lens
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.87 - 2.17
- Lens come in with better recent form.
Club Brugge
Bodo/Glimt
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.44 - 1.06
Como 1907
Manchester United
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.11 - 1.20
Como 1907
PAE AEK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.51 - 0.99
Como 1907
PSG
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.85 - 1.75
- PSG hold a 160-point edge over Como 1907 on the underlying team rating.
FC Porto
PSV
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 0.85 - 1.29
- PSV hold a 65-point edge over FC Porto on the underlying team rating.
- PSV come in with better recent form.
FC Porto
Napoli
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 0.86 - 0.94
FC Porto
Slavia Prague
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.24 - 1.60
Fenerbahçe SK
Slavia Prague
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.68 - 1.25
- Fenerbahçe SK come in with better recent form.
Fenerbahçe SK
Villarreal
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.68 - 1.25
- Fenerbahçe SK come in with better recent form.
Feyenoord
Como 1907
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.18 - 2.35
- Como 1907 come in with better recent form.
Feyenoord
Inter Milan
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.44 - 1.73
- Inter Milan hold a 150-point edge over Feyenoord on the underlying team rating.
Feyenoord
FC Porto
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.51 - 1.21
Feyenoord
RB Leipzig
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.80 - 1.68
- RB Leipzig hold a 50-point edge over Feyenoord on the underlying team rating.
Galatasaray
Barcelona
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.12 - 2.35
- Barcelona hold a 200-point edge over Galatasaray on the underlying team rating.
- Barcelona come in with better recent form.
Galatasaray
Stuttgart
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.15 - 2.20
- Stuttgart hold a 70-point edge over Galatasaray on the underlying team rating.
- Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
Galatasaray
Feyenoord
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.92 - 1.45
Inter Milan
Club Brugge
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.77 - 1.53
- Inter Milan hold a 190-point edge over Club Brugge on the underlying team rating.
Inter Milan
Shakhtar Donetsk
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.23 - 1.22
- Inter Milan hold a 190-point edge over Shakhtar Donetsk on the underlying team rating.
- Shakhtar Donetsk come in with better recent form.
Inter Milan
Stuttgart
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.21 - 1.87
- Inter Milan hold a 120-point edge over Stuttgart on the underlying team rating.
- Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
LASK Linz
Slovan Bratislava
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.51 - 0.99
LASK Linz
Fenerbahçe SK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 0.86 - 0.99
- Fenerbahçe SK come in with better recent form.
LASK Linz
FC Porto
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.10 - 0.73
Lens
Sporting Lisbon
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.73 - 1.97
- Sporting Lisbon hold a 115-point edge over Lens on the underlying team rating.
Lens
Como 1907
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.77 - 2.08
Lens
Bodo/Glimt
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.60 - 0.94
- Lens come in with better recent form.
Lille
Galatasaray
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.14 - 1.41
- Lille hold a 45-point edge over Galatasaray on the underlying team rating.
Lille
Bayern Munich
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.17 - 2.35
- Bayern Munich hold a 175-point edge over Lille on the underlying team rating.
- Bayern Munich come in with better recent form.
Lille
Slovan Bratislava
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.60 - 1.41
- Lille hold a 45-point edge over Slovan Bratislava on the underlying team rating.
Manchester United
AS Roma
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.40 - 1.09
- Manchester United come in with better recent form.
Manchester United
RB Leipzig
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.15 - 1.12
- RB Leipzig hold a 110-point edge over Manchester United on the underlying team rating.
- Manchester United come in with better recent form.
Manchester United
Bayern Munich
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.11 - 1.86
- Bayern Munich hold a 240-point edge over Manchester United on the underlying team rating.
Napoli
Bodo/Glimt
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.43 - 0.73
Napoli
Club Brugge
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.24 - 1.25
Napoli
Viking FK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.24 - 0.99
PAE AEK
Real Madrid
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.11 - 1.05
- Real Madrid hold a 260-point edge over PAE AEK on the underlying team rating.
PAE AEK
Galatasaray
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.68 - 0.78
- PAE AEK come in with better recent form.
PAE AEK
AS Roma
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.16 - 0.78
- PAE AEK come in with better recent form.
PSG
Barcelona
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.97 - 1.64
PSG
AS Roma
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.05 - 0.96
- PSG hold a 160-point edge over AS Roma on the underlying team rating.
- PSG come in with better recent form.
PSG
Galatasaray
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.60 - 0.96
- PSG hold a 160-point edge over Galatasaray on the underlying team rating.
- PSG come in with better recent form.
PSV
Club Brugge
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.71 - 1.23
- PSV hold a 65-point edge over Club Brugge on the underlying team rating.
- PSV come in with better recent form.
PSV
Atletico Madrid
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.48 - 1.01
- Atletico Madrid hold a 55-point edge over PSV on the underlying team rating.
- PSV come in with better recent form.
PSV
Stuttgart
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.17 - 1.51
- Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
RB Leipzig
PSV
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.18 - 1.55
- PSV come in with better recent form.
RB Leipzig
Lens
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.53 - 2.31
- RB Leipzig hold a 90-point edge over Lens on the underlying team rating.
- Lens come in with better recent form.
RB Leipzig
Shakhtar Donetsk
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.19 - 1.52
- RB Leipzig hold a 90-point edge over Shakhtar Donetsk on the underlying team rating.
- Shakhtar Donetsk come in with better recent form.
Real Betis Balompié
FC Porto
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.26 - 0.94
- Real Betis Balompié come in with better recent form.
Real Betis Balompié
Feyenoord
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.60 - 1.28
- Real Betis Balompié come in with better recent form.
Real Betis Balompié
Como 1907
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.77 - 2.08
Real Madrid
RB Leipzig
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.38 - 0.97
- Real Madrid hold a 170-point edge over RB Leipzig on the underlying team rating.
- Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
Real Madrid
PSV
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.54 - 0.96
- Real Madrid hold a 195-point edge over PSV on the underlying team rating.
- Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
Real Madrid
LASK Linz
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.56 - 0.70
- Real Madrid hold a 260-point edge over LASK Linz on the underlying team rating.
- Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
Sabah FK
Slavia Prague
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.24 - 1.95
Sabah FK
Borussia Dortmund
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.07 - 2.35
- Borussia Dortmund hold a 130-point edge over Sabah FK on the underlying team rating.
- Borussia Dortmund come in with better recent form.
Sabah FK
Barcelona
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 0.83 - 2.35
- Barcelona hold a 200-point edge over Sabah FK on the underlying team rating.
- Barcelona come in with better recent form.
Sabah FK
Napoli
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 0.86 - 1.15
Shakhtar Donetsk
PAE AEK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 0.92 - 0.99
- PAE AEK come in with better recent form.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Sporting Lisbon
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.14 - 1.54
- Sporting Lisbon hold a 115-point edge over Shakhtar Donetsk on the underlying team rating.
- Sporting Lisbon come in with better recent form.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Fenerbahçe SK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.16 - 0.99
Shakhtar Donetsk
Real Madrid
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.11 - 1.33
- Real Madrid hold a 260-point edge over Shakhtar Donetsk on the underlying team rating.
- Real Madrid come in with better recent form.
Slavia Prague
Villarreal
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.11 - 1.80
Slovan Bratislava
Stuttgart
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.15 - 2.35
- Stuttgart hold a 70-point edge over Slovan Bratislava on the underlying team rating.
- Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
Slovan Bratislava
Real Betis Balompié
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.49 - 2.35
- Real Betis Balompié come in with better recent form.
Slovan Bratislava
Shakhtar Donetsk
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.16 - 1.74
- Shakhtar Donetsk come in with better recent form.
Slovan Bratislava
Inter Milan
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.43 - 1.84
- Inter Milan hold a 190-point edge over Slovan Bratislava on the underlying team rating.
Sporting Lisbon
LASK Linz
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.81 - 0.72
- Sporting Lisbon hold a 115-point edge over LASK Linz on the underlying team rating.
- Sporting Lisbon come in with better recent form.
Sporting Lisbon
Manchester United
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.00 - 1.17
- Sporting Lisbon hold a 135-point edge over Manchester United on the underlying team rating.
Sporting Lisbon
Barcelona
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.74 - 1.65
- Barcelona hold a 85-point edge over Sporting Lisbon on the underlying team rating.
Stuttgart
Atletico Madrid
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.23 - 1.01
- Atletico Madrid hold a 50-point edge over Stuttgart on the underlying team rating.
- Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
Stuttgart
Lille
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.56 - 1.25
- Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
Stuttgart
Club Brugge
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.58 - 1.23
- Stuttgart hold a 70-point edge over Club Brugge on the underlying team rating.
- Stuttgart come in with better recent form.
Viking FK
Bayern Munich
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 0.92 - 2.35
- Bayern Munich hold a 220-point edge over Viking FK on the underlying team rating.
- Bayern Munich come in with better recent form.
Viking FK
Sabah FK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.82 - 1.06
Viking FK
Feyenoord
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.92 - 1.45
Viking FK
PSV
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.15 - 1.46
- PSV hold a 65-point edge over Viking FK on the underlying team rating.
- PSV come in with better recent form.
Villarreal
Napoli
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.47 - 1.06
Villarreal
PSG
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.42 - 2.35
- PSG hold a 160-point edge over Villarreal on the underlying team rating.
- PSG come in with better recent form.
Villarreal
Sabah FK
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 2.29 - 1.06
Villarreal
Manchester United
Projected Score
Expected Goals: 1.62 - 1.72
- Manchester United come in with better recent form.