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Sensible Stats / UEFA Champions League

Champions League Projections

Calibrated Dixon-Coles Poisson forecasting for European fixtures. Resolving squad fatigue, home advantage, and Monte Carlo tournament progression.

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Match Projections

2 matches predicted
UCL Group StageConf. 44%

Juventus

Galatasaray

2-1

Projected Score

Home 43%Draw 28%Away 28%

Expected Goals: 2.01 - 1.41

  • Juventus hold a 260-point edge over Galatasaray on the underlying team rating.
  • Galatasaray come in with better recent form.
UCL Group StageConf. 35%

Sporting Lisbon

Bodo/Glimt

2-1

Projected Score

Home 39%Draw 27%Away 34%

Expected Goals: 1.81 - 1.65

  • Sporting Lisbon hold a 255-point edge over Bodo/Glimt on the underlying team rating.
  • Sporting Lisbon come in with better recent form.