Sensible Stats

PL / Live / 2025/26

v0.1.1

The sharp, live read on the Premier League.

Forecasting the table, not shouting about it.

Teams

Fixtures left

Data

football-data.org

Matchday

MW 36

Status

Live

Model controls

Filter the board without flattening it.

ClubFixture search

Current filter

Club: All teamsSearch: NonePredictions: 20

Matchday digest

Key stories this matchday

▸

1 PL match today

Manchester City 3–0 Crystal Palace (FT)

↓

West Ham United in the drop zone — relegation fight intensifying

West Ham United are 2 points from safety. Model relegation probabilities — Tottenham Hotspur 19%, West Ham United 81%, Burnley 100%, Wolverhampton Wanderers 100%.

★

Arsenal ahead — 79% to 21% in the title race

Arsenal lead Manchester City by 2 points. Arsenal 79% title probability vs Manchester City at 21%.

Remaining board

Predicted fixtures

20 shown

Matchday 37 / 15 May 2026, 19:00

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Low / 35%Last 3: 0W 1D 2L — mixed form.3 wins

Aston Villa

39.4%

Draw

27.5%

Liverpool

33.2%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.48-1.42.

Liverpool come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Liverpool come in with better recent form.
Both sides are in live table-pressure spots.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Aston Villa home win: 39.4%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.1

Team strength

-0.9

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-0.3

= 39.4% home win

Head to head · Aston Villa perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Aston Villa away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

2.0 goals/game

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 11:30

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest

Low / 50%3 wins3 wins

Manchester United

46.7%

Draw

27.5%

Nottingham Forest

25.8%

H2H0W 1D 0L(1 meetings · draws often)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.78-1.15.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 14:00

Brentford vs Crystal Palace

Low / 47%Last 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.5 winless

Brentford

45.5%

Draw

28.7%

Crystal Palace

25.8%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.50-1.02.

Brentford come in with better recent form.

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 14:00

Everton vs Sunderland

Low / 42%5 winless4 winless

Everton

43.3%

Draw

30.3%

Sunderland

26.4%

H2H0W 1D 0L(1 meetings · draws often)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.33-0.94.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 14:00

Leeds vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Low / 35%7 unbeatenLast 3: 2W 0D 1L — mixed form.

Leeds

34.9%

Draw

28.8%

Brighton & Hove Albion

36.4%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.27-1.42.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 14:00

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham

Low / 39%6 winlessLast 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

29.4%

Draw

29.5%

Fulham

41.1%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 0.87-1.49.

Fulham come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Fulham come in with better recent form.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Wolverhampton Wanderers home win: 29.4%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.5

Team strength

-3.9

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-6.7

= 29.4% home win

Head to head · Wolverhampton Wanderers perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Wolverhampton Wanderers away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

3.0 goals/game

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 16:30

Newcastle United vs West Ham United

Low / 49%4 lossesLast 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.

Newcastle United

46.0%

Draw

27.1%

West Ham United

26.9%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.85-1.16.

West Ham United are in a live table-pressure spot.

Model notes

West Ham United are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Context

Why Newcastle United home win: 46.0%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.9

Team strength

+2.0

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+3.6

= 46.0% home win

Head to head · Newcastle United perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Newcastle United away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

4.0 goals/game

Matchday 37 / 18 May 2026, 19:00

Arsenal vs Burnley

High / 87%3 wins5 losses

Arsenal

66.2%

Draw

21.4%

Burnley

12.5%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-0. Goal means 2.60-0.59.

Arsenal come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Arsenal come in with better recent form.
Arsenal are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Arsenal home win: 66.2%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.8

Team strength

+9.1

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+15.8

= 66.2% home win

Head to head · Arsenal perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

1W 0D 0L

Arsenal away

1W 0D 0L

Recent form: W (last 1 meetings).

2.0 goals/game

Matchday 37 / 19 May 2026, 18:30

Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Low / 44%10 unbeaten10 unbeaten

Bournemouth

29.4%

Draw

26.6%

Manchester City

44.0%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.17-1.93.

Manchester City are in a live table-pressure spot.

Matchday 37 / 19 May 2026, 19:15

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur

Low / 48%6 losses4 unbeaten

Chelsea

45.6%

Draw

27.1%

Tottenham Hotspur

27.3%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.81-1.19.

Tottenham Hotspur come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Tottenham Hotspur come in with better recent form.
Tottenham Hotspur are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Chelsea home win: 45.6%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.9

Team strength

+1.5

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+3.7

= 45.6% home win

Head to head · Chelsea perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

1W 0D 0L

Chelsea away

1W 0D 0L

Recent form: W (last 1 meetings).

1.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Sunderland vs Chelsea

Low / 35%4 winless6 losses

Sunderland

34.9%

Draw

29.7%

Chelsea

35.4%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.17-1.32.

Sunderland come in with better recent form.

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United

Low / 38%Last 3: 2W 0D 1L — mixed form.3 wins

Brighton & Hove Albion

41.1%

Draw

27.6%

Manchester United

31.2%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.53-1.38.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Low / 50%5 winless3 wins

Crystal Palace

24.1%

Draw

28.4%

Arsenal

47.5%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 0-1. Goal means 0.71-1.62.

Arsenal come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Arsenal come in with better recent form.
Arsenal are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Crystal Palace home win: 24.1%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.1

Team strength

-5.8

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-9.7

= 24.1% home win

Head to head · Crystal Palace perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Crystal Palace away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

1.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

Low / 45%5 losses6 winless

Burnley

44.4%

Draw

28.5%

Wolverhampton Wanderers

27.0%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.52-1.04.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Fulham vs Newcastle United

Low / 35%Last 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.4 losses

Fulham

39.4%

Draw

29.0%

Newcastle United

31.6%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.42-1.30.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Liverpool vs Brentford

Low / 47%3 winsLast 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.

Liverpool

45.3%

Draw

26.8%

Brentford

27.9%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.76-1.30.

Liverpool come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Liverpool come in with better recent form.
Liverpool are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Liverpool home win: 45.3%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.3

Team strength

+1.1

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+3.4

= 45.3% home win

Head to head · Liverpool perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Liverpool away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

5.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Manchester City vs Aston Villa

Medium / 62%10 unbeatenLast 3: 0W 1D 2L — mixed form.

Manchester City

53.4%

Draw

25.7%

Aston Villa

20.9%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-0. Goal means 2.04-0.90.

Manchester City come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Manchester City come in with better recent form.
Both sides are in live table-pressure spots.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Manchester City home win: 53.4%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.3

Team strength

+4.5

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+8.1

= 53.4% home win

Head to head · Manchester City perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Manchester City away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

1.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth

Low / 35%3 wins10 unbeaten

Nottingham Forest

38.7%

Draw

28.1%

Bournemouth

33.2%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.45-1.36.

Bournemouth come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Bournemouth come in with better recent form.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Nottingham Forest home win: 38.7%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.8

Team strength

-0.7

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-0.9

= 38.7% home win

Head to head · Nottingham Forest perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Nottingham Forest away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

2.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton

Low / 35%4 unbeaten5 winless

Tottenham Hotspur

39.1%

Draw

28.7%

Everton

32.2%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.33-1.32.

Tottenham Hotspur come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Tottenham Hotspur come in with better recent form.
Tottenham Hotspur are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Tottenham Hotspur home win: 39.1%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.9

Team strength

-0.9

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-0.4

= 39.1% home win

Head to head · Tottenham Hotspur perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

1W 0D 0L

Tottenham Hotspur away

1W 0D 0L

Recent form: W (last 1 meetings).

3.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

West Ham United vs Leeds

Low / 35%Last 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.7 unbeaten

West Ham United

38.3%

Draw

27.6%

Leeds

34.1%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.39-1.52.

Leeds come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Leeds come in with better recent form.
West Ham United are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why West Ham United home win: 38.3%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.0

Team strength

-1.8

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-0.4

= 38.3% home win

Head to head · West Ham United perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

West Ham United away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

3.0 goals/game

Current table

Live standings

Live data only

#	Club	P	GD	Pts	Status
1	Arsenal Title	36	42	79	SafeReliable
2	Manchester City Top 4	36	43	77	SafeReliable
3	Manchester United Top 4	36	15	65	SafeVariable
4	Liverpool Top 4	36	12	59	SafeVariable
5	Aston Villa Mid	36	4	59	SafeVariable
6	Bournemouth Mid	36	4	55	SafeVariable
7	Brighton & Hove Albion Mid	36	10	53	SafeVariable
8	Brentford Mid	36	3	51	SafeVariable
9	Chelsea Mid	36	6	49	SafeVariable
10	Everton Mid	36	0	49	SafeVariable
11	Fulham Mid	36	-6	48	SafeVariable
12	Sunderland Mid	36	-9	48	SafeVariable
13	Newcastle United Mid	36	-2	46	SafeVariable
14	Leeds Mid	36	-5	44	SafeVariable
15	Crystal Palace Mid	36	-9	44	SafeVariable
16	Nottingham Forest Mid	36	-2	43	SafeVariable
17	Tottenham Hotspur Mid	36	-9	38	+2 / 2gVariable
18	West Ham United Bottom 3	36	-20	36	+0 / 2gVariable
19	Burnley Bottom 3	36	-36	21	RelegatedErratic
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers Bottom 3	36	-41	18	RelegatedErratic

Rank 1

Arsenal

Title

79 pts

Played

Points

Form / W W W L L

Club hub

Rank 2

Manchester City

Top 4

77 pts

Played

Points

Form / W W D W W

Club hub

Rank 3

Manchester United

Top 4

65 pts

Played

Points

Form / D W W W L

Club hub

Rank 4

Liverpool

Top 4

59 pts

Played

Points

Form / D L W W W

Club hub

Rank 5

Aston Villa

Mid

59 pts

Played

Points

Form / D L L W D

Club hub

Rank 6

Bournemouth

Mid

55 pts

Played

Points

Form / W W D W W

Club hub

Rank 7

Brighton & Hove Albion

Mid

53 pts

Played

Points

Form / W L W D W

Club hub

Rank 8

Brentford

Mid

51 pts

Played

Points

Form / L W L D D

Club hub

Rank 9

Chelsea

Mid

49 pts

Played

Points

Form / D L L L L

Club hub

Rank 10

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Sensible Stats

PL / Live / 2025/26

v0.1.1

The sharp, live read on the Premier League.

Forecasting the table, not shouting about it.

Teams

Fixtures left

Data

football-data.org

Matchday

MW 36

Status

Live

Model controls

Filter the board without flattening it.

ClubFixture search

Current filter

Club: All teamsSearch: NonePredictions: 20

Matchday digest

Key stories this matchday

▸

1 PL match today

Manchester City 3–0 Crystal Palace (FT)

↓

West Ham United in the drop zone — relegation fight intensifying

West Ham United are 2 points from safety. Model relegation probabilities — Tottenham Hotspur 19%, West Ham United 81%, Burnley 100%, Wolverhampton Wanderers 100%.

★

Arsenal ahead — 79% to 21% in the title race

Arsenal lead Manchester City by 2 points. Arsenal 79% title probability vs Manchester City at 21%.

Remaining board

Predicted fixtures

20 shown

Matchday 37 / 15 May 2026, 19:00

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Low / 35%Last 3: 0W 1D 2L — mixed form.3 wins

Aston Villa

39.4%

Draw

27.5%

Liverpool

33.2%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.48-1.42.

Liverpool come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Liverpool come in with better recent form.
Both sides are in live table-pressure spots.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Aston Villa home win: 39.4%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.1

Team strength

-0.9

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-0.3

= 39.4% home win

Head to head · Aston Villa perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Aston Villa away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

2.0 goals/game

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 11:30

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest

Low / 50%3 wins3 wins

Manchester United

46.7%

Draw

27.5%

Nottingham Forest

25.8%

H2H0W 1D 0L(1 meetings · draws often)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.78-1.15.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 14:00

Brentford vs Crystal Palace

Low / 47%Last 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.5 winless

Brentford

45.5%

Draw

28.7%

Crystal Palace

25.8%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.50-1.02.

Brentford come in with better recent form.

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 14:00

Everton vs Sunderland

Low / 42%5 winless4 winless

Everton

43.3%

Draw

30.3%

Sunderland

26.4%

H2H0W 1D 0L(1 meetings · draws often)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.33-0.94.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 14:00

Leeds vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Low / 35%7 unbeatenLast 3: 2W 0D 1L — mixed form.

Leeds

34.9%

Draw

28.8%

Brighton & Hove Albion

36.4%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.27-1.42.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 14:00

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham

Low / 39%6 winlessLast 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

29.4%

Draw

29.5%

Fulham

41.1%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 0.87-1.49.

Fulham come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Fulham come in with better recent form.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Wolverhampton Wanderers home win: 29.4%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.5

Team strength

-3.9

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-6.7

= 29.4% home win

Head to head · Wolverhampton Wanderers perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Wolverhampton Wanderers away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

3.0 goals/game

Matchday 37 / 17 May 2026, 16:30

Newcastle United vs West Ham United

Low / 49%4 lossesLast 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.

Newcastle United

46.0%

Draw

27.1%

West Ham United

26.9%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.85-1.16.

West Ham United are in a live table-pressure spot.

Model notes

West Ham United are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Context

Why Newcastle United home win: 46.0%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.9

Team strength

+2.0

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+3.6

= 46.0% home win

Head to head · Newcastle United perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Newcastle United away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

4.0 goals/game

Matchday 37 / 18 May 2026, 19:00

Arsenal vs Burnley

High / 87%3 wins5 losses

Arsenal

66.2%

Draw

21.4%

Burnley

12.5%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-0. Goal means 2.60-0.59.

Arsenal come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Arsenal come in with better recent form.
Arsenal are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Arsenal home win: 66.2%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.8

Team strength

+9.1

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+15.8

= 66.2% home win

Head to head · Arsenal perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

1W 0D 0L

Arsenal away

1W 0D 0L

Recent form: W (last 1 meetings).

2.0 goals/game

Matchday 37 / 19 May 2026, 18:30

Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Low / 44%10 unbeaten10 unbeaten

Bournemouth

29.4%

Draw

26.6%

Manchester City

44.0%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.17-1.93.

Manchester City are in a live table-pressure spot.

Matchday 37 / 19 May 2026, 19:15

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur

Low / 48%6 losses4 unbeaten

Chelsea

45.6%

Draw

27.1%

Tottenham Hotspur

27.3%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.81-1.19.

Tottenham Hotspur come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Tottenham Hotspur come in with better recent form.
Tottenham Hotspur are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Chelsea home win: 45.6%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.9

Team strength

+1.5

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+3.7

= 45.6% home win

Head to head · Chelsea perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

1W 0D 0L

Chelsea away

1W 0D 0L

Recent form: W (last 1 meetings).

1.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Sunderland vs Chelsea

Low / 35%4 winless6 losses

Sunderland

34.9%

Draw

29.7%

Chelsea

35.4%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.17-1.32.

Sunderland come in with better recent form.

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United

Low / 38%Last 3: 2W 0D 1L — mixed form.3 wins

Brighton & Hove Albion

41.1%

Draw

27.6%

Manchester United

31.2%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.53-1.38.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Low / 50%5 winless3 wins

Crystal Palace

24.1%

Draw

28.4%

Arsenal

47.5%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 0-1. Goal means 0.71-1.62.

Arsenal come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Arsenal come in with better recent form.
Arsenal are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Crystal Palace home win: 24.1%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.1

Team strength

-5.8

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-9.7

= 24.1% home win

Head to head · Crystal Palace perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Crystal Palace away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

1.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

Low / 45%5 losses6 winless

Burnley

44.4%

Draw

28.5%

Wolverhampton Wanderers

27.0%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.52-1.04.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Fulham vs Newcastle United

Low / 35%Last 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.4 losses

Fulham

39.4%

Draw

29.0%

Newcastle United

31.6%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.42-1.30.

This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Liverpool vs Brentford

Low / 47%3 winsLast 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.

Liverpool

45.3%

Draw

26.8%

Brentford

27.9%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.76-1.30.

Liverpool come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Liverpool come in with better recent form.
Liverpool are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Liverpool home win: 45.3%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.3

Team strength

+1.1

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+3.4

= 45.3% home win

Head to head · Liverpool perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Liverpool away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

5.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Manchester City vs Aston Villa

Medium / 62%10 unbeatenLast 3: 0W 1D 2L — mixed form.

Manchester City

53.4%

Draw

25.7%

Aston Villa

20.9%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-0. Goal means 2.04-0.90.

Manchester City come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Manchester City come in with better recent form.
Both sides are in live table-pressure spots.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Manchester City home win: 53.4%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.3

Team strength

+4.5

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

+8.1

= 53.4% home win

Head to head · Manchester City perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Manchester City away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

1.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth

Low / 35%3 wins10 unbeaten

Nottingham Forest

38.7%

Draw

28.1%

Bournemouth

33.2%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.45-1.36.

Bournemouth come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Bournemouth come in with better recent form.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Nottingham Forest home win: 38.7%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.8

Team strength

-0.7

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-0.9

= 38.7% home win

Head to head · Nottingham Forest perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

Nottingham Forest away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

2.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton

Low / 35%4 unbeaten5 winless

Tottenham Hotspur

39.1%

Draw

28.7%

Everton

32.2%

H2H1W 0D 0L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 1-0. Goal means 1.33-1.32.

Tottenham Hotspur come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Tottenham Hotspur come in with better recent form.
Tottenham Hotspur are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why Tottenham Hotspur home win: 39.1%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+6.9

Team strength

-0.9

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-0.4

= 39.1% home win

Head to head · Tottenham Hotspur perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

1W 0D 0L

Tottenham Hotspur away

1W 0D 0L

Recent form: W (last 1 meetings).

3.0 goals/game

Matchday 38 / 24 May 2026, 15:00

West Ham United vs Leeds

Low / 35%Last 3: 1W 0D 2L — mixed form.7 unbeaten

West Ham United

38.3%

Draw

27.6%

Leeds

34.1%

H2H0W 0D 1L(1 meetings)

Most likely score 2-1. Goal means 1.39-1.52.

Leeds come in with better recent form.

Model notes

Leeds come in with better recent form.
West Ham United are in a live table-pressure spot.
This projection is being shaped by late-season run-in context.

FormContext

Why West Ham United home win: 38.3%

League neutral

33.5%

Home venue

+7.0

Team strength

-1.8

Squad fitness

+0.0

Context

-0.4

= 38.3% home win

Head to head · West Ham United perspective · 1 meetings

Overall

0W 0D 1L

West Ham United away

0W 0D 1L

Recent form: L (last 1 meetings).

3.0 goals/game

Current table

Live standings

Live data only

#	Club	P	GD	Pts	Status
1	Arsenal Title	36	42	79	SafeReliable
2	Manchester City Top 4	36	43	77	SafeReliable
3	Manchester United Top 4	36	15	65	SafeVariable
4	Liverpool Top 4	36	12	59	SafeVariable
5	Aston Villa Mid	36	4	59	SafeVariable
6	Bournemouth Mid	36	4	55	SafeVariable
7	Brighton & Hove Albion Mid	36	10	53	SafeVariable
8	Brentford Mid	36	3	51	SafeVariable
9	Chelsea Mid	36	6	49	SafeVariable
10	Everton Mid	36	0	49	SafeVariable
11	Fulham Mid	36	-6	48	SafeVariable
12	Sunderland Mid	36	-9	48	SafeVariable
13	Newcastle United Mid	36	-2	46	SafeVariable
14	Leeds Mid	36	-5	44	SafeVariable
15	Crystal Palace Mid	36	-9	44	SafeVariable
16	Nottingham Forest Mid	36	-2	43	SafeVariable
17	Tottenham Hotspur Mid	36	-9	38	+2 / 2gVariable
18	West Ham United Bottom 3	36	-20	36	+0 / 2gVariable
19	Burnley Bottom 3	36	-36	21	RelegatedErratic
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers Bottom 3	36	-41	18	RelegatedErratic

Rank 1

Arsenal

Title

79 pts

Played

Points

Form / W W W L L

Club hub

Rank 2

Manchester City

Top 4

77 pts

Played

Points

Form / W W D W W

Club hub

Rank 3

Manchester United

Top 4

65 pts

Played

Points

Form / D W W W L

Club hub

Rank 4

Liverpool

Top 4

59 pts

Played

Points

Form / D L W W W

Club hub

Rank 5

Aston Villa

Mid

59 pts

Played

Points

Form / D L L W D

Club hub

Rank 6

Bournemouth

Mid

55 pts

Played

Points

Form / W W D W W

Club hub

Rank 7

Brighton & Hove Albion

Mid

53 pts

Played

Points

Form / W L W D W

Club hub

Rank 8

Brentford

Mid

51 pts

Played

Points

Form / L W L D D

Club hub

Rank 9

Chelsea

Mid

49 pts

Played

Points

Form / D L L L L

Club hub

Rank 10

No short-turnaround fixtures detected in the current fixture set.