Sensible Stats / Model Accountability

Logged before kickoff.
Never rewritten.

Every World Cup prediction is frozen to a public log the moment a match goes live — including the injury adjustments and rating state it was made with. When the model is wrong, that stays on the record too.

Log updated 25 Jul 2026, 06:07 UTCModel v0.8.0← Tournament hub

Matches settled

104

0 predictions frozen & waiting

Outcome accuracy

63%

66 correct calls

Exact scores

Predicted scoreline hit

Avg Brier score

0.529

Lower is better · 0.667 = guessing

The record

Frozen pre-match probabilities against final results, newest first. Per-model splits show the Dixon-Coles and GBT components behind each hybrid call.

Spain1–0Argentina19 Jul

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 38 / 32 / 30%

Brier: 0.577DC 39% · GBT 29% home

France4–6England18 Jul

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 41 / 31 / 28%

Brier: 0.783DC 41% · GBT 42% home

England1–2Argentina15 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 31 / 32 / 37%

Brier: 0.595DC 32% · GBT 27% home

France0–2Spain14 Jul

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 39 / 32 / 29%

Brier: 0.759DC 39% · GBT 35% home

Argentina3–1Switzerland12 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 51 / 28 / 21%

Brier: 0.363DC 52% · GBT 53% home

Norway1–2England11 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 22 / 28 / 50%

Brier: 0.377DC 21% · GBT 31% home

Spain2–1Belgium10 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 44 / 30 / 26%

Brier: 0.471DC 45% · GBT 39% home

France2–0Morocco9 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 48 / 29 / 23%

Brier: 0.407DC 50% · GBT 38% home

Switzerland0–0Colombia7 Jul

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 36 / 31 / 33%

Brier: 0.715DC 36% · GBT 42% home

Argentina3–2Egypt7 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 58 / 25 / 17%

Brier: 0.268DC 59% · GBT 51% home

United States1–4Belgium7 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 31 / 30 / 39%

Brier: 0.558DC 30% · GBT 36% home

Portugal0–1Spain6 Jul

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 32 / 31 / 37%

Brier: 0.595DC 31% · GBT 36% home

Mexico2–3England6 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 1-2 predicted

Hybrid: 30 / 32 / 38%

Brier: 0.577DC 30% · GBT 30% home

Brazil1–2Norway5 Jul

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 46 / 29 / 25%

Brier: 0.858DC 47% · GBT 39% home

Paraguay0–1France4 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 8 / 17 / 75%

Brier: 0.098DC 7% · GBT 22% home

Canada0–3Morocco4 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 21 / 28 / 51%

Brier: 0.363DC 20% · GBT 36% home

Colombia1–0Ghana4 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 62 / 23 / 15%

Brier: 0.220DC 63% · GBT 48% home

Argentina3–2Cabo Verde3 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 72 / 18 / 10%

Brier: 0.121DC 73% · GBT 54% home

Australia1–1Egypt3 Jul

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 30 / 30 / 40%

Brier: 0.740DC 30% · GBT 28% home

Switzerland2–0Algeria3 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 45 / 29 / 26%

Brier: 0.454DC 45% · GBT 39% home

Portugal2–1Croatia2 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 43 / 30 / 27%

Brier: 0.488DC 45% · GBT 33% home

Spain3–0Austria2 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 62 / 23 / 15%

Brier: 0.220DC 63% · GBT 50% home

United States2–0Bosnia-Herzegovina2 Jul

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 58 / 25 / 17%

Brier: 0.268DC 60% · GBT 47% home

Belgium3–2Senegal1 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 42 / 30 / 28%

Brier: 0.505DC 43% · GBT 37% home

England2–1DR Congo1 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 62 / 23 / 15%

Brier: 0.220DC 63% · GBT 52% home

Mexico2–0Ecuador1 Jul

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 54 / 28 / 18%

Brier: 0.322DC 55% · GBT 48% home

France3–0Sweden30 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 71 / 19 / 10%

Brier: 0.130DC 72% · GBT 53% home

Côte d'Ivoire1–2Norway30 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 31 / 31 / 38%

Brier: 0.577DC 31% · GBT 34% home

Netherlands1–1Morocco30 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 38 / 31 / 31%

Brier: 0.717DC 37% · GBT 47% home

Germany1–1Paraguay29 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 56 / 26 / 18%

Brier: 0.894DC 57% · GBT 44% home

Brazil2–1Japan29 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 45 / 29 / 26%

Brier: 0.454DC 44% · GBT 51% home

South Africa0–1Canada28 Jun

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 26 / 28 / 46%

Brier: 0.438DC 23% · GBT 51% home

Algeria3–3Austria28 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 36 / 26 / 38%

Brier: 0.822DC 33% · GBT 39% home

Jordan1–3Argentina28 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 23 / 12 / 65%

Brier: 0.190DC 4% · GBT 39% home

Colombia0–0Portugal27 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 30 / 28 / 42%

Brier: 0.785DC 27% · GBT 32% home

DR Congo3–1Uzbekistan27 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 44 / 29 / 27%

Brier: 0.471DC 43% · GBT 52% home

Croatia2–1Ghana27 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 47 / 22 / 31%

Brier: 0.425DC 57% · GBT 39% home

Panama0–2England27 Jun

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 16 / 16 / 68%

Brier: 0.154DC 8% · GBT 22% home

Egypt1–1IR Iran27 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 41 / 25 / 34%

Brier: 0.846DC 36% · GBT 47% home

New Zealand1–5Belgium27 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 23 / 19 / 58%

Brier: 0.265DC 13% · GBT 32% home

Cabo Verde0–0Saudi Arabia27 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 38 / 30 / 32%

Brier: 0.737DC 39% · GBT 35% home

Uruguay0–1Spain27 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 20 / 24 / 56%

Brier: 0.291DC 13% · GBT 25% home

Norway1–4France26 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 21 / 18 / 61%

Brier: 0.229DC 10% · GBT 29% home

Senegal5–0Iraq26 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 54 / 21 / 25%

Brier: 0.318DC 66% · GBT 46% home

Paraguay0–0Australia26 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 37 / 23 / 40%

Brier: 0.890DC 19% · GBT 53% home

Türkiye3–2United States26 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 32 / 25 / 43%

Brier: 0.710DC 26% · GBT 38% home

Japan1–1Sweden25 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 40 / 29 / 31%

Brier: 0.760DC 45% · GBT 35% home

Tunisia1–3Netherlands25 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 22 / 20 / 58%

Brier: 0.265DC 12% · GBT 29% home

Curaçao0–2Côte d'Ivoire25 Jun

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 28 / 22 / 50%

Brier: 0.377DC 15% · GBT 38% home

Ecuador2–1Germany25 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 29 / 23 / 48%

Brier: 0.787DC 19% · GBT 39% home

Czechia0–3Mexico25 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 34 / 24 / 42%

Brier: 0.510DC 19% · GBT 46% home

South Africa1–0Korea Republic25 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 33 / 23 / 44%

Brier: 0.695DC 19% · GBT 45% home

Morocco4–2Haiti24 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 62 / 16 / 22%

Brier: 0.218DC 79% · GBT 48% home

Scotland0–3Brazil24 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 28 / 22 / 50%

Brier: 0.377DC 18% · GBT 36% home

Bosnia-Herzegovina3–1Qatar24 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 33 / 26 / 41%

Brier: 0.685DC 28% · GBT 38% home

Switzerland2–1Canada24 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 39 / 28 / 33%

Brier: 0.559DC 43% · GBT 37% home

Colombia1–0DR Congo24 Jun

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 51 / 28 / 21%

Brier: 0.363DC 51% · GBT 40% home

Panama0–1Croatia23 Jun

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 35 / 24 / 41%

Brier: 0.528DC 21% · GBT 50% home

England0–0Ghana23 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 67 / 15 / 18%

Brier: 1.204DC 79% · GBT 53% home

Portugal5–0Uzbekistan23 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 63 / 17 / 20%

Brier: 0.206DC 74% · GBT 52% home

Jordan1–2Algeria23 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 25 / 22 / 53%

Brier: 0.332DC 18% · GBT 33% home

Norway3–2Senegal23 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 28 / 26 / 46%

Brier: 0.798DC 29% · GBT 27% home

France3–0Iraq22 Jun

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Home win · 3-0 predicted

Hybrid: 68 / 11 / 21%

Brier: 0.159DC 87% · GBT 47% home

Argentina2–0Austria22 Jun

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 58 / 22 / 20%

Brier: 0.265DC 59% · GBT 58% home

New Zealand1–3Egypt22 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 32 / 23 / 45%

Brier: 0.458DC 19% · GBT 45% home

Uruguay2–2Cabo Verde21 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 46 / 29 / 25%

Brier: 0.778DC 47% · GBT 34% home

Belgium0–0IR Iran21 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 40 / 26 / 34%

Brier: 0.823DC 46% · GBT 34% home

Spain4–0Saudi Arabia21 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 70 / 15 / 15%

Brier: 0.135DC 80% · GBT 60% home

Tunisia0–4Japan21 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 27 / 22 / 51%

Brier: 0.361DC 17% · GBT 36% home

Ecuador0–0Curaçao21 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 54 / 21 / 25%

Brier: 0.978DC 60% · GBT 49% home

Germany2–1Côte d'Ivoire20 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 48 / 25 / 27%

Brier: 0.406DC 54% · GBT 42% home

Netherlands5–1Sweden20 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 52 / 24 / 24%

Brier: 0.346DC 54% · GBT 52% home

Türkiye0–1Paraguay20 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 39 / 24 / 37%

Brier: 0.607DC 52% · GBT 26% home

Brazil3–0Haiti20 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 66 / 15 / 19%

Brier: 0.174DC 79% · GBT 52% home

Scotland0–1Morocco19 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-2 predicted

Hybrid: 21 / 21 / 58%

Brier: 0.265DC 18% · GBT 25% home

United States2–0Australia19 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 40 / 26 / 34%

Brier: 0.543DC 43% · GBT 39% home

Mexico1–0Korea Republic19 Jun

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 42 / 29 / 29%

Brier: 0.505DC 47% · GBT 35% home

Canada6–0Qatar18 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 40 / 24 / 36%

Brier: 0.547DC 45% · GBT 36% home

Switzerland4–1Bosnia-Herzegovina18 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 50 / 23 / 27%

Brier: 0.376DC 59% · GBT 42% home

Czechia1–1South Africa18 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 41 / 24 / 35%

Brier: 0.868DC 44% · GBT 39% home

Uzbekistan1–3Colombia18 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 31 / 25 / 44%

Brier: 0.472DC 20% · GBT 42% home

Ghana1–0Panama17 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 31 / 24 / 45%

Brier: 0.736DC 22% · GBT 40% home

England4–2Croatia17 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 46 / 25 / 29%

Brier: 0.438DC 50% · GBT 42% home

Portugal1–1DR Congo17 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 66 / 21 / 13%

Brier: 1.077DC 68% · GBT 51% home

Austria3–1Jordan17 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 48 / 22 / 30%

Brier: 0.409DC 60% · GBT 36% home

Argentina3–0Algeria17 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 56 / 21 / 23%

Brier: 0.291DC 63% · GBT 50% home

Iraq1–4Norway16 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 28 / 24 / 48%

Brier: 0.406DC 25% · GBT 32% home

France3–1Senegal16 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 56 / 21 / 23%

Brier: 0.291DC 62% · GBT 51% home

IR Iran2–2New Zealand16 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 48 / 22 / 30%

Brier: 0.929DC 61% · GBT 37% home

Saudi Arabia1–1Uruguay15 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 30 / 24 / 46%

Brier: 0.879DC 21% · GBT 39% home

Belgium1–1Egypt15 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 43 / 25 / 32%

Brier: 0.850DC 48% · GBT 37% home

Spain0–0Cabo Verde15 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 77 / 15 / 8%

Brier: 1.322DC 80% · GBT 53% home

Sweden5–1Tunisia15 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 44 / 24 / 32%

Brier: 0.474DC 38% · GBT 51% home

Côte d'Ivoire1–0Ecuador14 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 36 / 27 / 37%

Brier: 0.619DC 33% · GBT 41% home

Netherlands2–2Japan14 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 40 / 29 / 31%

Brier: 0.760DC 45% · GBT 35% home

Germany7–1Curaçao14 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 68 / 16 / 16%

Brier: 0.154DC 74% · GBT 61% home

Australia2–0Türkiye14 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 34 / 29 / 37%

Brier: 0.657DC 34% · GBT 34% home

Haiti0–1Scotland14 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 2-1 predicted

Hybrid: 41 / 23 / 36%

Brier: 0.631DC 23% · GBT 51% home

Brazil1–1Morocco13 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 39 / 27 / 34%

Brier: 0.801DC 35% · GBT 42% home

Qatar1–1Switzerland13 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 0-1 predicted

Hybrid: 29 / 23 / 48%

Brier: 0.907DC 23% · GBT 32% home

United States4–1Paraguay13 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 36 / 22 / 42%

Brier: 0.634DC 59% · GBT 27% home

Canada1–1Bosnia-Herzegovina12 Jun

✗ Missed

Frozen call: Away win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 36 / 23 / 41%

Brier: 0.891DC 52% · GBT 30% home

Korea Republic2–1Czechia12 Jun

✓ Called it

Frozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted

Hybrid: 44 / 26 / 30%

Brier: 0.471DC 46% · GBT 44% home

Mexico2–0South Africa11 Jun

✓ Called it · exact score

Frozen call: Home win · 2-0 predicted

Hybrid: 46 / 24 / 30%

Brier: 0.439DC 62% · GBT 39% home

How the log works

Predictions are refreshed up to kickoff as ratings evolve (results, daily squad news), then frozen the moment a match goes live.
Results are settled against the frozen probabilities — outcome call, exact-score check, and Brier score — by an automated job, with every change committed to a public git history.
Later model improvements cannot touch past entries. If we change the model mid-tournament, the old predictions stand as made.
All percentages are model confidence from Monte Carlo simulation — analysis, not betting advice.