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Sensible Stats / FIFA World Cup 2026

World Cup Projections

Who wins, how likely, and why — every match and every route to the final, from 10,000 simulated tournaments. Each prediction was frozen before kickoff, and the record is public.

Tournament Review

The final result and the decisive stories from the settled tournament record.

  • Spain are world champions

    Spain beat Argentina 1–0 in the Final — Spain win the World Cup; Argentina finish runners-up.

Biggest Movers

Final shifts in the model record versus the pre-tournament baseline.

Final Movement
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WorldCupNext26

Retro Edition

Real World Cup 2026 data served through a Windows 98 desktop experience.

World Cup Fixtures & Predictions

The settled 2026 record pairs every final score with the hybrid GBT and Dixon-Coles call frozen before kickoff.

Model accountability: every prediction frozen before kickoff →

Group Stage· Group A
11 Jun 2026, 20:00
Mexico
2 - 0✓ Called itPred: MEX 2-0 RSA
South Africa
Group Stage· Group A
12 Jun 2026, 03:00
Korea Republic
2 - 1✓ Called itPred: KOR 1-0 CZE
Czechia
Group Stage· Group B
12 Jun 2026, 20:00
Canada
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: CAN 1-0 BIH
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Group Stage· Group D
13 Jun 2026, 02:00
United States
4 - 1✓ Called itPred: USA 1-0 PAR
Paraguay
Group Stage· Group B
13 Jun 2026, 20:00
Qatar
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: QAT 0-1 SUI
Switzerland
Group Stage· Group C
13 Jun 2026, 23:00
Brazil
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: BRA 1-0 MAR
Morocco
Group Stage· Group C
14 Jun 2026, 02:00
Haiti
0 - 1✓ Called itPred: HAI 0-1 SCO
Scotland
Group Stage· Group D
14 Jun 2026, 05:00
Australia
2 - 0💀 UpsetPred: AUS 0-1 TUR
Türkiye
Group Stage· Group E
14 Jun 2026, 18:00
Germany
7 - 1✓ Called itPred: GER 2-0 CUW
Curaçao
Group Stage· Group F
14 Jun 2026, 21:00
Netherlands
2 - 2💀 UpsetPred: NED 1-0 JPN
Japan
Group Stage· Group E
15 Jun 2026, 00:00
Côte d'Ivoire
1 - 0💀 UpsetPred: CIV 0-1 ECU
Ecuador
Group Stage· Group F
15 Jun 2026, 03:00
Sweden
5 - 1✓ Called itPred: SWE 1-0 TUN
Tunisia

92 fixtures remain in this view