Sensible Stats / FIFA World Cup 2026
World Cup Projections
Hybrid Gradient Boosted and Dixon-Coles Poisson forecasting for international football. Simulating 10,000 tournament paths including co-host venue advantages and the complex 3rd-place qualification matrix.
Opening Day Preview
Thursday 11 June
🇲🇽Mexico2-0South Africa🇿🇦
19:00 UTC48%Draw 23%29%
World Cup Fixtures & Predictions
Hybrid GBT and Dixon-Coles Poisson projections for all 2026 matches. Predictions update in real-time as team ratings calibrate.
Group Stage· Group A
11 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 48%Draw: 23%Away: 29%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:15/100
Group Stage· Group A
12 Jun 2026, 02:00Home: 40%Draw: 27%Away: 33%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:7/100
Group Stage· Group B
12 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 37%Draw: 22%Away: 41%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:14/100
Group Stage· Group D
13 Jun 2026, 01:00Home: 34%Draw: 20%Away: 46%
NeutralUpset Index:21/100
Group Stage· Group B
13 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 26%Draw: 23%Away: 51%
NeutralUpset Index:9/100
Group Stage· Group C
13 Jun 2026, 22:00Home: 42%Draw: 27%Away: 31%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage· Group C
14 Jun 2026, 01:00Home: 35%Draw: 23%Away: 42%
NeutralUpset Index:11/100
Group Stage· Group D
14 Jun 2026, 04:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:4/100
Group Stage· Group E
14 Jun 2026, 17:00Home: 68%Draw: 15%Away: 17%
NeutralUpset Index:15/100
Group Stage· Group F
14 Jun 2026, 20:00Home: 44%Draw: 29%Away: 27%
NeutralUpset Index:7/100
Group Stage· Group E
14 Jun 2026, 23:00Home: 41%Draw: 28%Away: 31%
NeutralUpset Index:2/100
Group Stage· Group F
15 Jun 2026, 02:00Home: 39%Draw: 25%Away: 36%
NeutralUpset Index:1/100
Group Stage· Group H
15 Jun 2026, 16:00Home: 63%Draw: 20%Away: 17%
NeutralUpset Index:12/100
Group Stage· Group G
15 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 47%Draw: 26%Away: 27%
NeutralUpset Index:8/100
Group Stage· Group H
15 Jun 2026, 22:00Home: 35%Draw: 26%Away: 39%
NeutralUpset Index:14/100
Group Stage· Group G
16 Jun 2026, 01:00Home: 50%Draw: 21%Away: 29%
NeutralUpset Index:15/100
Group Stage· Group I
16 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 65%Draw: 19%Away: 16%
NeutralUpset Index:13/100
Group Stage· Group I
16 Jun 2026, 22:00Home: 41%Draw: 25%Away: 34%
NeutralUpset Index:11/100
Group Stage· Group J
17 Jun 2026, 01:00Home: 65%Draw: 19%Away: 16%
NeutralUpset Index:11/100
Group Stage· Group J
17 Jun 2026, 04:00Home: 49%Draw: 22%Away: 29%
NeutralUpset Index:14/100
Group Stage· Group K
17 Jun 2026, 17:00Home: 51%Draw: 24%Away: 25%
NeutralUpset Index:12/100
Group Stage· Group L
17 Jun 2026, 20:00Home: 51%Draw: 23%Away: 26%
NeutralUpset Index:11/100
Group Stage· Group L
17 Jun 2026, 23:00Home: 36%Draw: 25%Away: 39%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:12/100
Group Stage· Group K
18 Jun 2026, 02:00Home: 34%Draw: 31%Away: 35%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:15/100
Group Stage· Group A
18 Jun 2026, 16:00Home: 41%Draw: 26%Away: 33%
NeutralUpset Index:5/100
Group Stage· Group B
18 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 50%Draw: 21%Away: 29%
NeutralUpset Index:15/100
Group Stage· Group B
18 Jun 2026, 22:00Home: 45%Draw: 23%Away: 32%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:6/100
Group Stage· Group A
19 Jun 2026, 01:00Home: 42%Draw: 31%Away: 27%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:5/100
Group Stage· Group D
19 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 33%Draw: 24%Away: 43%
NeutralUpset Index:9/100
Group Stage· Group C
19 Jun 2026, 22:00Home: 24%Draw: 21%Away: 55%
NeutralUpset Index:15/100
Group Stage· Group C
20 Jun 2026, 00:30Home: 68%Draw: 15%Away: 17%
NeutralUpset Index:16/100
Group Stage· Group D
20 Jun 2026, 03:00Home: 46%Draw: 23%Away: 31%
NeutralUpset Index:11/100
Group Stage· Group F
20 Jun 2026, 17:00Home: 56%Draw: 20%Away: 24%
NeutralUpset Index:14/100
Group Stage· Group E
20 Jun 2026, 20:00Home: 51%Draw: 23%Away: 26%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:12/100
Group Stage· Group E
21 Jun 2026, 00:00Home: 42%Draw: 21%Away: 37%
NeutralUpset Index:17/100
Group Stage· Group F
21 Jun 2026, 04:00Home: 33%Draw: 25%Away: 42%
NeutralUpset Index:12/100
Group Stage· Group H
21 Jun 2026, 16:00Home: 72%Draw: 14%Away: 14%
NeutralUpset Index:17/100
Group Stage· Group G
21 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 46%Draw: 27%Away: 27%
NeutralUpset Index:6/100
Group Stage· Group H
21 Jun 2026, 22:00Home: 41%Draw: 27%Away: 32%
NeutralUpset Index:6/100
Group Stage· Group G
22 Jun 2026, 01:00Home: 41%Draw: 24%Away: 35%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:18/100
Group Stage· Group J
22 Jun 2026, 17:00Home: 63%Draw: 20%Away: 17%
NeutralUpset Index:11/100
Group Stage· Group I
22 Jun 2026, 21:00Home: 74%Draw: 12%Away: 14%
NeutralUpset Index:19/100
Group Stage· Group I
23 Jun 2026, 00:00Home: 26%Draw: 23%Away: 51%
NeutralUpset Index:8/100
Group Stage· Group J
23 Jun 2026, 03:00Home: 37%Draw: 27%Away: 36%
NeutralUpset Index:15/100
Group Stage· Group K
23 Jun 2026, 17:00Home: 66%Draw: 16%Away: 18%
NeutralUpset Index:16/100
Group Stage· Group L
23 Jun 2026, 20:00Home: 72%Draw: 13%Away: 15%
NeutralUpset Index:17/100
Group Stage· Group L
23 Jun 2026, 23:00Home: 49%Draw: 22%Away: 29%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:19/100
Group Stage· Group K
24 Jun 2026, 02:00Home: 39%Draw: 32%Away: 29%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage· Group B
24 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 24%Draw: 23%Away: 53%
NeutralUpset Index:4/100
Group Stage· Group B
24 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 47%Draw: 26%Away: 27%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:4/100
Group Stage· Group C
24 Jun 2026, 22:00Home: 68%Draw: 15%Away: 17%
NeutralUpset Index:16/100
Group Stage· Group C
24 Jun 2026, 22:00Home: 40%Draw: 23%Away: 37%
NeutralUpset Index:24/100
Group Stage· Group A
25 Jun 2026, 01:00Home: 31%Draw: 27%Away: 42%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:12/100
Group Stage· Group A
25 Jun 2026, 01:00Home: 26%Draw: 23%Away: 51%
NeutralUpset Index:9/100
Group Stage· Group E
25 Jun 2026, 20:00Home: 38%Draw: 25%Away: 37%
NeutralUpset Index:16/100
Group Stage· Group E
25 Jun 2026, 20:00Home: 41%Draw: 24%Away: 35%
NeutralUpset Index:17/100
Group Stage· Group F
25 Jun 2026, 23:00Home: 44%Draw: 25%Away: 31%
NeutralUpset Index:10/100
Group Stage· Group F
25 Jun 2026, 23:00Home: 33%Draw: 24%Away: 43%
NeutralUpset Index:21/100
Group Stage· Group D
26 Jun 2026, 02:00Home: 37%Draw: 29%Away: 34%
NeutralUpset Index:10/100
Group Stage· Group D
26 Jun 2026, 02:00Home: 41%Draw: 27%Away: 32%
NeutralUpset Index:5/100
Group Stage· Group I
26 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 32%Draw: 19%Away: 49%
NeutralUpset Index:35/100
Group Stage· Group I
26 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 54%Draw: 21%Away: 25%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:14/100
Group Stage· Group H
27 Jun 2026, 00:00Home: 50%Draw: 21%Away: 29%
NeutralUpset Index:15/100
Group Stage· Group H
27 Jun 2026, 00:00Home: 26%Draw: 27%Away: 47%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:21/100
Group Stage· Group G
27 Jun 2026, 03:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:3/100
Group Stage· Group G
27 Jun 2026, 03:00Home: 36%Draw: 20%Away: 44%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:27/100
Group Stage· Group L
27 Jun 2026, 21:00Home: 68%Draw: 17%Away: 15%
NeutralUpset Index:11/100
Group Stage· Group L
27 Jun 2026, 21:00Home: 21%Draw: 19%Away: 60%
NeutralUpset Index:17/100
Group Stage· Group K
27 Jun 2026, 23:30Home: 34%Draw: 26%Away: 40%
NeutralUpset Index:16/100
Group Stage· Group K
27 Jun 2026, 23:30Home: 46%Draw: 23%Away: 31%
NeutralUpset Index:14/100
Group Stage· Group J
28 Jun 2026, 02:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:2/100
Group Stage· Group J
28 Jun 2026, 02:00Home: 33%Draw: 16%Away: 51%
NeutralUpset Index:37/100
Group Stage
28 Jun 2026, 19:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
29 Jun 2026, 17:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
29 Jun 2026, 20:30Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
30 Jun 2026, 01:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
30 Jun 2026, 17:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
30 Jun 2026, 21:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
1 Jul 2026, 01:00Home: 39%Draw: 32%Away: 29%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
1 Jul 2026, 16:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
1 Jul 2026, 20:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
2 Jul 2026, 00:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
2 Jul 2026, 19:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
2 Jul 2026, 23:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
3 Jul 2026, 03:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
3 Jul 2026, 18:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
3 Jul 2026, 22:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
4 Jul 2026, 01:30Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
4 Jul 2026, 17:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
4 Jul 2026, 21:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
5 Jul 2026, 20:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
6 Jul 2026, 00:00Home: 39%Draw: 32%Away: 29%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
6 Jul 2026, 19:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
7 Jul 2026, 00:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
7 Jul 2026, 16:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
7 Jul 2026, 20:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
Host AdvantageUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
9 Jul 2026, 20:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
10 Jul 2026, 19:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
11 Jul 2026, 21:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
12 Jul 2026, 01:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
14 Jul 2026, 19:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
15 Jul 2026, 19:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
18 Jul 2026, 21:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100
Group Stage
19 Jul 2026, 19:00Home: 41%Draw: 29%Away: 30%
NeutralUpset Index:0/100