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Sensible Stats / FIFA World Cup 2026

World Cup Projections

Who wins, how likely, and why — every match and every route to the final, from 10,000 simulated tournaments. Each prediction was frozen before kickoff, and the record is public.

How this works →The frozen prediction log →
← Premier League

Tournament Pulse

What happened overnight, and what matters today.

  • Argentina are out

    Spain beat Argentina 1–0 in the Final — Argentina's tournament ends here, while Spain advance.

Biggest Movers

Largest shifts in the model's projections versus the pre-tournament baseline.

Live Movement
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WorldCupNext26

Retro Edition

Real World Cup 2026 data served through a Windows 98 desktop experience.

World Cup Fixtures & Predictions

Hybrid GBT and Dixon-Coles Poisson projections for all 2026 matches. Predictions update in real-time as team ratings calibrate.

Model accountability: every prediction frozen before kickoff →

Group Stage· Group A
11 Jun 2026, 19:00
Mexico
2 - 0✓ Called itPred: MEX 2-0 RSA
South Africa
Group Stage· Group A
12 Jun 2026, 02:00
Korea Republic
2 - 1✓ Called itPred: KOR 1-0 CZE
Czechia
Group Stage· Group B
12 Jun 2026, 19:00
Canada
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: CAN 1-0 BIH
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Group Stage· Group D
13 Jun 2026, 01:00
United States
4 - 1✓ Called itPred: USA 1-0 PAR
Paraguay
Group Stage· Group B
13 Jun 2026, 19:00
Qatar
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: QAT 0-1 SUI
Switzerland
Group Stage· Group C
13 Jun 2026, 22:00
Brazil
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: BRA 1-0 MAR
Morocco
Group Stage· Group C
14 Jun 2026, 01:00
Haiti
0 - 1✓ Called itPred: HAI 0-1 SCO
Scotland
Group Stage· Group D
14 Jun 2026, 04:00
Australia
2 - 0💀 UpsetPred: AUS 0-1 TUR
Türkiye
Group Stage· Group E
14 Jun 2026, 17:00
Germany
7 - 1✓ Called itPred: GER 2-0 CUW
Curaçao
Group Stage· Group F
14 Jun 2026, 20:00
Netherlands
2 - 2💀 UpsetPred: NED 1-0 JPN
Japan
Group Stage· Group E
14 Jun 2026, 23:00
Côte d'Ivoire
1 - 0💀 UpsetPred: CIV 0-1 ECU
Ecuador
Group Stage· Group F
15 Jun 2026, 02:00
Sweden
5 - 1✓ Called itPred: SWE 1-0 TUN
Tunisia
Group Stage· Group H
15 Jun 2026, 16:00
Spain
0 - 0💀 UpsetPred: ESP 2-0 CPV
Cabo Verde
Group Stage· Group G
15 Jun 2026, 19:00
Belgium
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: BEL 1-0 EGY
Egypt
Group Stage· Group H
15 Jun 2026, 22:00
Saudi Arabia
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: KSA 0-1 URU
Uruguay
Group Stage· Group G
16 Jun 2026, 01:00
IR Iran
2 - 2💀 UpsetPred: IRN 2-0 NZL
New Zealand
Group Stage· Group I
16 Jun 2026, 19:00
France
3 - 1✓ Called itPred: FRA 2-0 SEN
Senegal
Group Stage· Group I
16 Jun 2026, 22:00
Iraq
1 - 4✓ Called itPred: IRQ 0-1 NOR
Norway
Group Stage· Group J
17 Jun 2026, 01:00
Argentina
3 - 0✓ Called itPred: ARG 2-0 ALG
Algeria
Group Stage· Group J
17 Jun 2026, 04:00
Austria
3 - 1✓ Called itPred: AUT 2-0 JOR
Jordan
Group Stage· Group K
17 Jun 2026, 17:00
Portugal
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: POR 2-0 COD
DR Congo
Group Stage· Group L
17 Jun 2026, 20:00
England
4 - 2✓ Called itPred: ENG 1-0 CRO
Croatia
Group Stage· Group L
17 Jun 2026, 23:00
Ghana
1 - 0💀 UpsetPred: GHA 0-1 PAN
Panama
Group Stage· Group K
18 Jun 2026, 02:00
Uzbekistan
1 - 3✓ Called itPred: UZB 0-1 COL
Colombia
Group Stage· Group A
18 Jun 2026, 16:00
Czechia
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: CZE 1-0 RSA
South Africa
Group Stage· Group B
18 Jun 2026, 19:00
Switzerland
4 - 1✓ Called itPred: SUI 1-0 BIH
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Group Stage· Group B
18 Jun 2026, 22:00
Canada
6 - 0✓ Called itPred: CAN 1-0 QAT
Qatar
Group Stage· Group A
19 Jun 2026, 01:00
Mexico
1 - 0✓ Called itPred: MEX 1-0 KOR
Korea Republic
Group Stage· Group D
19 Jun 2026, 19:00
United States
2 - 0✓ Called itPred: USA 1-0 AUS
Australia
Group Stage· Group C
19 Jun 2026, 22:00
Scotland
0 - 1✓ Called itPred: SCO 0-2 MAR
Morocco
Group Stage· Group C
20 Jun 2026, 00:30
Brazil
3 - 0✓ Called itPred: BRA 2-0 HAI
Haiti
Group Stage· Group D
20 Jun 2026, 03:00
Türkiye
0 - 1💀 UpsetPred: TUR 1-0 PAR
Paraguay
Group Stage· Group F
20 Jun 2026, 17:00
Netherlands
5 - 1✓ Called itPred: NED 1-0 SWE
Sweden
Group Stage· Group E
20 Jun 2026, 20:00
Germany
2 - 1✓ Called itPred: GER 1-0 CIV
Côte d'Ivoire
Group Stage· Group E
21 Jun 2026, 00:00
Ecuador
0 - 0💀 UpsetPred: ECU 2-0 CUW
Curaçao
Group Stage· Group F
21 Jun 2026, 04:00
Tunisia
0 - 4✓ Called itPred: TUN 0-2 JPN
Japan
Group Stage· Group H
21 Jun 2026, 16:00
Spain
4 - 0✓ Called itPred: ESP 2-0 KSA
Saudi Arabia
Group Stage· Group G
21 Jun 2026, 19:00
Belgium
0 - 0💀 UpsetPred: BEL 1-0 IRN
IR Iran
Group Stage· Group H
21 Jun 2026, 22:00
Uruguay
2 - 2💀 UpsetPred: URU 1-0 CPV
Cabo Verde
Group Stage· Group G
22 Jun 2026, 01:00
New Zealand
1 - 3✓ Called itPred: NZL 0-1 EGY
Egypt
Group Stage· Group J
22 Jun 2026, 17:00
Argentina
2 - 0✓ Called itPred: ARG 2-0 AUT
Austria
Group Stage· Group I
22 Jun 2026, 21:00
France
3 - 0✓ Called itPred: FRA 3-0 IRQ
Iraq
Group Stage· Group I
23 Jun 2026, 00:00
Norway
3 - 2💀 UpsetPred: NOR 0-1 SEN
Senegal
Group Stage· Group J
23 Jun 2026, 03:00
Jordan
1 - 2✓ Called itPred: JOR 0-2 ALG
Algeria
Group Stage· Group K
23 Jun 2026, 17:00
Portugal
5 - 0✓ Called itPred: POR 2-0 UZB
Uzbekistan
Group Stage· Group L
23 Jun 2026, 20:00
England
0 - 0💀 UpsetPred: ENG 2-0 GHA
Ghana
Group Stage· Group L
23 Jun 2026, 23:00
Panama
0 - 1✓ Called itPred: PAN 0-1 CRO
Croatia
Group Stage· Group K
24 Jun 2026, 02:00
Colombia
1 - 0✓ Called itPred: COL 1-0 COD
DR Congo
Group Stage· Group B
24 Jun 2026, 19:00
Bosnia-Herzegovina
3 - 1💀 UpsetPred: BIH 0-1 QAT
Qatar
Group Stage· Group B
24 Jun 2026, 19:00
Switzerland
2 - 1✓ Called itPred: SUI 1-0 CAN
Canada
Group Stage· Group C
24 Jun 2026, 22:00
Morocco
4 - 2✓ Called itPred: MAR 2-0 HAI
Haiti
Group Stage· Group C
24 Jun 2026, 22:00
Scotland
0 - 3✓ Called itPred: SCO 0-2 BRA
Brazil
Group Stage· Group A
25 Jun 2026, 01:00
Czechia
0 - 3✓ Called itPred: CZE 0-2 MEX
Mexico
Group Stage· Group A
25 Jun 2026, 01:00
South Africa
1 - 0💀 UpsetPred: RSA 0-1 KOR
Korea Republic
Group Stage· Group E
25 Jun 2026, 20:00
Curaçao
0 - 2✓ Called itPred: CUW 0-2 CIV
Côte d'Ivoire
Group Stage· Group E
25 Jun 2026, 20:00
Ecuador
2 - 1💀 UpsetPred: ECU 0-2 GER
Germany
Group Stage· Group F
25 Jun 2026, 23:00
Japan
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: JPN 1-0 SWE
Sweden
Group Stage· Group F
25 Jun 2026, 23:00
Tunisia
1 - 3✓ Called itPred: TUN 0-2 NED
Netherlands
Group Stage· Group D
26 Jun 2026, 02:00
Paraguay
0 - 0💀 UpsetPred: PAR 0-1 AUS
Australia
Group Stage· Group D
26 Jun 2026, 02:00
Türkiye
3 - 2💀 UpsetPred: TUR 0-2 USA
United States
Group Stage· Group I
26 Jun 2026, 19:00
Norway
1 - 4✓ Called itPred: NOR 0-2 FRA
France
Group Stage· Group I
26 Jun 2026, 19:00
Senegal
5 - 0✓ Called itPred: SEN 2-0 IRQ
Iraq
Group Stage· Group H
27 Jun 2026, 00:00
Cabo Verde
0 - 0💀 UpsetPred: CPV 1-0 KSA
Saudi Arabia
Group Stage· Group H
27 Jun 2026, 00:00
Uruguay
0 - 1✓ Called itPred: URU 0-2 ESP
Spain
Group Stage· Group G
27 Jun 2026, 03:00
Egypt
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: EGY 1-0 IRN
IR Iran
Group Stage· Group G
27 Jun 2026, 03:00
New Zealand
1 - 5✓ Called itPred: NZL 0-2 BEL
Belgium
Group Stage· Group L
27 Jun 2026, 21:00
Croatia
2 - 1✓ Called itPred: CRO 1-0 GHA
Ghana
Group Stage· Group L
27 Jun 2026, 21:00
Panama
0 - 2✓ Called itPred: PAN 0-2 ENG
England
Group Stage· Group K
27 Jun 2026, 23:30
Colombia
0 - 0💀 UpsetPred: COL 0-1 POR
Portugal
Group Stage· Group K
27 Jun 2026, 23:30
DR Congo
3 - 1✓ Called itPred: COD 1-0 UZB
Uzbekistan
Group Stage· Group J
28 Jun 2026, 02:00
Algeria
3 - 3💀 UpsetPred: ALG 0-1 AUT
Austria
Group Stage· Group J
28 Jun 2026, 02:00
Jordan
1 - 3✓ Called itPred: JOR 0-2 ARG
Argentina
Round of 32
28 Jun 2026, 19:00
South Africa
0 - 1✓ Called itPred: RSA 0-1 CAN
Canada
Round of 32
29 Jun 2026, 17:00
Brazil
2 - 1✓ Called itPred: BRA 1-0 JPN
Japan
Round of 32
29 Jun 2026, 20:30
Germany
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: GER 2-0 PAR
Paraguay
Round of 32
30 Jun 2026, 01:00
Netherlands
1 - 1💀 UpsetPred: NED 1-0 MAR
Morocco
Round of 32
30 Jun 2026, 17:00
Côte d'Ivoire
1 - 2✓ Called itPred: CIV 0-1 NOR
Norway
Round of 32
30 Jun 2026, 21:00
France
3 - 0✓ Called itPred: FRA 2-0 SWE
Sweden
Round of 32
1 Jul 2026, 02:00
Mexico
2 - 0✓ Called itPred: MEX 1-0 ECU
Ecuador
Round of 32
1 Jul 2026, 16:00
England
2 - 1✓ Called itPred: ENG 2-0 COD
DR Congo
Round of 32
1 Jul 2026, 20:00
Belgium
3 - 2✓ Called itPred: BEL 1-0 SEN
Senegal
Round of 32
2 Jul 2026, 00:00
United States
2 - 0✓ Called itPred: USA 2-0 BIH
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Round of 32
2 Jul 2026, 19:00
Spain
3 - 0✓ Called itPred: ESP 2-0 AUT
Austria
Round of 32
2 Jul 2026, 23:00
Portugal
2 - 1✓ Called itPred: POR 1-0 CRO
Croatia
Round of 32
3 Jul 2026, 03:00
Switzerland
2 - 0✓ Called itPred: SUI 1-0 ALG
Algeria
Round of 32
3 Jul 2026, 18:00
Australia
1 - 1✓ Called itPred: AUS 0-1 EGY
Egypt
Round of 32
3 Jul 2026, 22:00
Argentina
3 - 2✓ Called itPred: ARG 2-0 CPV
Cabo Verde
Round of 32
4 Jul 2026, 01:30
Colombia
1 - 0✓ Called itPred: COL 2-0 GHA
Ghana
Round of 16
4 Jul 2026, 17:00
Canada
0 - 3✓ Called itPred: CAN 0-1 MAR
Morocco
Round of 16
4 Jul 2026, 21:00
Paraguay
0 - 1✓ Called itPred: PAR 0-2 FRA
France
Round of 16
5 Jul 2026, 20:00
Brazil
1 - 2💀 UpsetPred: BRA 1-0 NOR
Norway
Round of 16
6 Jul 2026, 01:00
Mexico
2 - 3✓ Called itPred: MEX 1-2 ENG
England
Round of 16
6 Jul 2026, 19:00
Portugal
0 - 1✓ Called itPred: POR 0-1 ESP
Spain
Round of 16
7 Jul 2026, 00:00
United States
1 - 4✓ Called itPred: USA 0-1 BEL
Belgium
Round of 16
7 Jul 2026, 16:00
Argentina
3 - 2✓ Called itPred: ARG 1-0 EGY
Egypt
Round of 16
7 Jul 2026, 20:00
Switzerland
0 - 0💀 UpsetPred: SUI 0-1 COL
Colombia
Quarter-finals
9 Jul 2026, 20:00
France
2 - 0✓ Called itPred: FRA 1-0 MAR
Morocco
Quarter-finals
10 Jul 2026, 19:00
Spain
2 - 1✓ Called itPred: ESP 1-0 BEL
Belgium
Quarter-finals
11 Jul 2026, 21:00
Norway
1 - 2✓ Called itPred: NOR 0-1 ENG
England
Quarter-finals
12 Jul 2026, 01:00
Argentina
3 - 1✓ Called itPred: ARG 1-0 SUI
Switzerland
Semifinals
14 Jul 2026, 19:00
France
0 - 2💀 UpsetPred: FRA 1-0 ESP
Spain
Semifinals
15 Jul 2026, 19:00
England
1 - 2✓ Called itPred: ENG 0-1 ARG
Argentina
Third Place Play-off
18 Jul 2026, 21:00
France
4 - 6💀 UpsetPred: FRA 1-0 ENG
England
World Cup Final
19 Jul 2026, 19:00
Spain
1 - 0✓ Called itPred: ESP 1-0 ARG
Argentina