Sensible Stats / Model AccountabilityLocked before kickoff.
Locked before kickoff.
Never rewritten.
Every Champions League prediction is frozen to a public log hours before kickoff, with the measured lead time recorded per fixture. When the model is wrong, that stays on the record too.
Fixtures settled
12
0 predictions frozen & waiting
Outcome accuracy
50%
6 correct calls
Exact scores
2
Predicted scoreline hit
Avg Brier score
0.651
Lower is better · 0.667 = guessing
The record
Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities against final results, newest first. Knockout legs are graded on the 90-minute scoreline; a tie decided in extra time or on penalties still records who went through.
Bayern Munich5–0Bodo/GlimtLeague phase MD1 · 10 Sept
✓ Called itFrozen call: Home win · 2-1 predicted · locked 5h 53m before kickoff
Probabilities: 48 / 27 / 25%
Brier: 0.403
Manchester United4–0Sabah FKLeague phase MD1 · 10 Sept
✓ Called itFrozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted · locked 5h 53m before kickoff
Probabilities: 36 / 30 / 34%
Brier: 0.617
Como 19074–1RB LeipzigLeague phase MD1 · 10 Sept
✓ Called itFrozen call: Home win · 2-1 predicted · locked 5h 53m before kickoff
Probabilities: 40 / 29 / 31%
Brier: 0.541
Slavia Prague2–3LensLeague phase MD1 · 10 Sept
✗ MissedFrozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted · locked 5h 53m before kickoff
Probabilities: 42 / 29 / 29%
Brier: 0.773
Fenerbahçe SK1–1AS RomaLeague phase MD1 · 10 Sept
✗ MissedFrozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted · locked 3h 38m before kickoff
Probabilities: 42 / 29 / 29%
Brier: 0.755
PSV1–1Shakhtar DonetskLeague phase MD1 · 10 Sept
✗ MissedFrozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted · locked 3h 38m before kickoff
Probabilities: 44 / 29 / 27%
Brier: 0.772
Real Madrid2–1Inter MilanLeague phase MD1 · 8 Sept
✓ Called it · exact scoreFrozen call: Home win · 2-1 predicted · locked 5h 57m before kickoff
Probabilities: 44 / 28 / 27%
Brier: 0.466
FC Porto0–2Manchester CityLeague phase MD1 · 8 Sept
✗ MissedFrozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted · locked 5h 57m before kickoff
Probabilities: 47 / 28 / 25%
Brier: 0.870
Borussia Dortmund3–2VillarrealLeague phase MD1 · 8 Sept
✓ Called itFrozen call: Home win · 2-1 predicted · locked 5h 57m before kickoff
Probabilities: 46 / 28 / 26%
Brier: 0.439
Lille2–3Real Betis BalompiéLeague phase MD1 · 8 Sept
✗ MissedFrozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted · locked 5h 57m before kickoff
Probabilities: 43 / 29 / 28%
Brier: 0.795
Club Brugge2–3Aston VillaLeague phase MD1 · 8 Sept
✗ MissedFrozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted · locked 3h 42m before kickoff
Probabilities: 47 / 28 / 25%
Brier: 0.870
PAE AEK1–0LASK LinzLeague phase MD1 · 8 Sept
✓ Called it · exact scoreFrozen call: Home win · 1-0 predicted · locked 3h 42m before kickoff
Probabilities: 42 / 29 / 29%
Brier: 0.506
How the log works
- A daily job freezes every fixture inside the 12-hour pre-kickoff window and records the measured lead time — the number shown is the one written down, never a rounded promise.
- Results are settled against the frozen probabilities — outcome call, exact-score check, and Brier score — with every change committed to a public git history.
- Knockout legs are graded on the regulation scoreline: the model prices 90 minutes, so a shootout is never counted as a "predicted" win. Who actually advanced is recorded alongside, so two-leg calls can be scored too.
- Later model improvements cannot touch past entries. If the model changes mid-season, the old predictions stand as made.
- All percentages are model confidence from simulation — analysis, not betting advice.