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Club hub

Bournemouth

Deep dive into the live model state for Bournemouth: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.

Current rank
14
Points
0
Goal diff
0
Projected finish
6

Current state

#14

Mid
Power score1577
ClubElo feedClubElo England ratings
xG feedUnderstat cached snapshot
Availability feedManual availability snapshot
Player load feedFPL player load snapshot
Current rank
#14
0 pts
Projected finish
#6
20.1% top 4 probability
Next fixture
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
23 Aug 2026, 13:00
Next-fixture edge
22.1%
Bournemouth win probability
Model readiness
Ready
77 XI / 78 load snapshots
Form consistency:Reliable

Team Snapshot

Team snapshot and key signals

Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.

Shot Map

0 goals0 on target0 shots · 0.0 xG+0.0 vs xG
Loading shot data…
Goal On target Off target / blockedCircle size = xG value

Match Phase Breakdown

Loading phase data…

Passing Network

Loading network…

Goal timing

Goal distribution by 10-minute window

42 scored · 29 conceded · 38 matches

Peak scoring window

80-90+' · 0.26/match

Peak conceding window

40-50' · 0.10/match

0-10'
0.10/match (4)0.05/match (2)
10-20'
0.10/match (4)0.08/match (3)
20-30'
0.08/match (3)0.05/match (2)
30-40'
0.13/match (5)0.08/match (3)
40-50'
0.08/match (3)0.10/match (4)
50-60'
0.08/match (3)0.08/match (3)
60-70'
0.10/match (4)0.10/match (4)
70-80'
0.16/match (6)0.10/match (4)
80-90+'
0.26/match (10)0.10/match (4)

Model snapshot

Current rating split

Internal Elo
1521
ClubElo
1872
Blended Elo
1598

Hybrid Elo Rating

1644

low confidence

⚠ Divergence: 351 pts

Internal 1521External 1872
65%35%
Attack55
Defence52
Recent form50
Availability57

Table context

Where the club sits now

#12 Tottenham Hotspur

GD +0

0

points

#13 Manchester City

GD +0

0

points

#14 Bournemouth

GD +0

0

points

#15 Brighton & Hove Albion

GD +0

0

points

#16 Aston Villa

GD +0

0

points

Fan sentiment

Loading…

Fear — Greed0 · 50 · 100

Role board

Squad role board

Selected role profile

Adrien Truffert

DEF / Protector-led / High load

Finisher
6 / 100
Creator
9 / 100
Connector
23 / 100
Protection
64 / 100
Form
0 / 100
Load
88 / 100
Goals
0
0.0 xG
Assists
2
0.0 xA
Starts
29
2568 mins

Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 29 straight starts.

Top finisher

Junior Kroupi

0.24 finisher / 0.13 recent attack

Top creator

Marcus Tavernier

0.13 creator / 0.08 recent creator

Top connector

Alex Scott

0.27 control / MID

Top protector

Adrien Truffert

0.64 defence / Protector-led

Best current form

Đorđe Petrović

0 / 100 form / 0.13 recent attack

Highest load

Đorđe Petrović

88% load / 0 form

Unavailable context

Justin Kluivert / injuryLewis Cook / injuryBen Gannon Doak / injuryLuis Sinisterra / injuryJulio Soler / injuryRomain Faivre / injuryMatai Akinmboni / injury

Run-in map

Remaining fixtures and likely haul

probability-led / band-adjusted context
Remaining fixtures
38
16 vs top eight
Expected haul
55.5 pts
1.46 PPG from here
Historical run-in fit
N/A
Historical bucket context still shallow
Run-in fit
Unknown
0 strongest-fit / 0 weakest-fit

Fit read

unknown

Bournemouth's remaining mix is live, but the band-history sample is still thin.

Run-in split uses the live current table snapshot to classify each remaining opponent. Expected points come from match probabilities; historical split PPG is context from Bournemouth's finished matches in the same band and venue split.

Pressure points

8 top-four and 16 top-eight tests remain.

Shape of the run-in

0 fixtures mirror their strongest band split; 0 hit their weakest split.

Fixture board

The model probability is the forward-looking call. Historical split PPG is a context layer from the club’s finished matches against the same opponent band and venue split.

Away / 23 Aug 2026, 13:00

Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.96
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-30-48

Home / 29 Aug 2026, 14:00

Bournemouth vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.89
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
54-27-19

Away / 5 Sept 2026, 11:30

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.25
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
32-28-39

Home / 12 Sept 2026, 14:00

Bournemouth vs Brentford

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.76
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-30-22

Home / 20 Sept 2026, 13:00

Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.69
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-30-24

Away / 10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.44
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
39-28-34

Home / 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.70
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-31-23

Away / 24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Manchester United vs Bournemouth

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.96
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-30-48

Home / 31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Bournemouth vs Leeds

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.68
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-30-24

Away / 7 Nov 2026, 15:00

Ipswich vs Bournemouth

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.66
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-31-24

Home / 21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.68
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-32-23

Away / 28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Fulham vs Bournemouth

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.17
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
29-31-41

Home / 2 Dec 2026, 20:00

Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.63
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-33-24

Home / 5 Dec 2026, 15:00

Bournemouth vs Hull City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.73
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-32-21

Away / 12 Dec 2026, 15:00

Arsenal vs Bournemouth

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.97
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-31-47

Home / 19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Bournemouth vs Coventry City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.74
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-32-21

Away / 26 Dec 2026, 15:00

Tottenham Hotspur vs Bournemouth

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.27
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
32-30-38

Away / 30 Dec 2026, 20:00

Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.28
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
33-30-37

Home / 2 Jan 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-32-26

Away / 6 Jan 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.15
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Home / 16 Jan 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Ipswich

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.75
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-32-20

Away / 23 Jan 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.34
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
35-30-36

Home / 30 Jan 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Fulham

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.79
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-32-19

Away / 6 Feb 2027, 12:00

Leeds vs Bournemouth

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.32
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-31-35

Away / 10 Feb 2027, 12:00

Aston Villa vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.98
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-32-46

Home / 20 Feb 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.79
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-31-20

Away / 27 Feb 2027, 12:00

Coventry City vs Bournemouth

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.65
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-31-24

Home / 3 Mar 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Tottenham Hotspur

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.63
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
43-33-24

Home / 13 Mar 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.75
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
48-31-21

Away / 20 Mar 2027, 12:00

Brentford vs Bournemouth

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.17
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
29-31-41

Home / 10 Apr 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.28
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
33-28-39

Away / 17 Apr 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Bournemouth

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.29
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
33-29-38

Home / 24 Apr 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Arsenal

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.05
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
25-30-45

Away / 1 May 2027, 12:00

Hull City vs Bournemouth

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.70
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-30-24

Home / 8 May 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.42
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
38-28-34

Away / 15 May 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Bournemouth

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.34
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
35-28-36

Home / 23 May 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.93
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
55-28-17

Away / 30 May 2027, 12:00

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.09
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-31-43

Analyst brief

Structured interpretation layer

deterministic / evidence-backed

Bournemouth are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

Bournemouth are #14 now and project to finish #6.

This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.

Bournemouth are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

7 absences; availability impact 43%; injuries 7, suspensions 0.

availability

Bournemouth's recent chance creation profile is running ahead of their season baseline.

Recent xG diff +0.59 vs season xG diff +0.27.

performance

Bournemouth are currently projecting outside the top four.

Projected finish #6; title 5.0%, top four 20.1%, relegation 13.2%.

projection