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Brighton & Hove Albion

Deep dive into the live model state for Brighton & Hove Albion: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.

Current rank
15
Points
0
Goal diff
0
Projected finish
9

Current state

#15

Mid
Power score1557
ClubElo feedClubElo England ratings
xG feedUnderstat cached snapshot
Availability feedManual availability snapshot
Player load feedFPL player load snapshot
Current rank
#15
0 pts
Projected finish
#9
19.8% top 4 probability
Next fixture
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa
23 Aug 2026, 13:00
Next-fixture edge
36.2%
Brighton & Hove Albion win probability
Model readiness
Ready
77 XI / 78 load snapshots
Form consistency:Reliable

Team Snapshot

Team snapshot and key signals

Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.

Shot Map

0 goals0 on target0 shots · 0.0 xG+0.0 vs xG
Loading shot data…
Goal On target Off target / blockedCircle size = xG value

Match Phase Breakdown

Loading phase data…

Passing Network

Loading network…

Goal timing

Goal distribution by 10-minute window

35 scored · 28 conceded · 38 matches

Peak scoring window

80-90+' · 0.29/match

Peak conceding window

70-80' · 0.13/match

0-10'
0.10/match (4)0.03/match (1)
10-20'
0.05/match (2)0.10/match (4)
20-30'
0.05/match (2)0.05/match (2)
30-40'
0.05/match (2)0.10/match (4)
40-50'
0.13/match (5)0.08/match (3)
50-60'
0.08/match (3)0.05/match (2)
60-70'
0.08/match (3)0.05/match (2)
70-80'
0.08/match (3)0.13/match (5)
80-90+'
0.29/match (11)0.13/match (5)

Model snapshot

Current rating split

Internal Elo
1506
ClubElo
1842
Blended Elo
1580

Hybrid Elo Rating

1624

low confidence

⚠ Divergence: 336 pts

Internal 1506External 1842
65%35%
Attack52
Defence53
Recent form50
Availability64

Table context

Where the club sits now

#13 Manchester City

GD +0

0

points

#14 Bournemouth

GD +0

0

points

#15 Brighton & Hove Albion

GD +0

0

points

#16 Aston Villa

GD +0

0

points

#17 Newcastle United

GD +0

0

points

Fan sentiment

Loading…

Fear — Greed0 · 50 · 100

Role board

Squad role board

Selected role profile

Jan Paul van Hecke

DEF / Protector-led / High load

Finisher
7 / 100
Creator
9 / 100
Connector
22 / 100
Protection
61 / 100
Form
0 / 100
Load
79 / 100
Goals
3
0.0 xG
Assists
2
0.0 xA
Starts
27
2400 mins

Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 4 recent starts, 4 straight starts.

Top finisher

Danny Welbeck

0.25 finisher / 0.13 recent attack

Top creator

Yankuba Minteh

0.16 creator / 0.08 recent creator

Top connector

Yankuba Minteh

0.26 control / MID

Top protector

Lewis Dunk

0.60 defence / Protector-led

Best current form

Bart Verbruggen

0 / 100 form / 0.13 recent attack

Highest load

Bart Verbruggen

88% load / 0 form

Unavailable context

Stefanos Tzimas / injuryKaoru Mitoma / injuryLewis Dunk / injuryAdam Webster / injuryEvan Ferguson / injurySolly March / injury

Run-in map

Remaining fixtures and likely haul

probability-led / band-adjusted context
Remaining fixtures
38
16 vs top eight
Expected haul
52.5 pts
1.38 PPG from here
Historical run-in fit
N/A
Historical bucket context still shallow
Run-in fit
Unknown
0 strongest-fit / 0 weakest-fit

Fit read

unknown

Brighton & Hove Albion's remaining mix is live, but the band-history sample is still thin.

Run-in split uses the live current table snapshot to classify each remaining opponent. Expected points come from match probabilities; historical split PPG is context from Brighton & Hove Albion's finished matches in the same band and venue split.

Pressure points

8 top-four and 16 top-eight tests remain.

Shape of the run-in

0 fixtures mirror their strongest band split; 0 hit their weakest split.

Fixture board

The model probability is the forward-looking call. Historical split PPG is a context layer from the club’s finished matches against the same opponent band and venue split.

Home / 23 Aug 2026, 13:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.37
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
36-28-35

Away / 30 Aug 2026, 13:00

Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.42
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
38-28-34

Home / 5 Sept 2026, 14:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.62
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-31-25

Away / 13 Sept 2026, 13:00

Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.66
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-30-25

Home / 19 Sept 2026, 14:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.03
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-31-45

Away / 10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.27
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
32-29-38

Home / 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.68
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-30-24

Away / 24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.11
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
27-31-43

Away / 31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.84
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
19-27-54

Home / 7 Nov 2026, 15:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.65
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-24

Away / 21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.63
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-31-25

Home / 28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.66
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-23

Away / 2 Dec 2026, 20:00

Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.04
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-33-44

Away / 5 Dec 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.26
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
32-30-38

Home / 12 Dec 2026, 15:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.65
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-32-24

Home / 19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Ipswich

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.62
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
43-33-24

Away / 26 Dec 2026, 15:00

Fulham vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.17
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-40

Away / 30 Dec 2026, 20:00

Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.26
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
32-30-38

Home / 2 Jan 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.37
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
36-30-34

Home / 6 Jan 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Away / 16 Jan 2027, 12:00

Brentford vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
27-33-40

Home / 23 Jan 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Away / 30 Jan 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.15
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Home / 6 Feb 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Hull City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.63
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
43-33-24

Away / 10 Feb 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.96
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-31-47

Home / 20 Feb 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Tottenham Hotspur

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.56
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-32-27

Away / 27 Feb 2027, 12:00

Ipswich vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.66
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-31-24

Home / 3 Mar 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Fulham

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.66
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-32-23

Away / 13 Mar 2027, 12:00

Leeds vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.11
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-32-42

Home / 20 Mar 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Coventry City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.67
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-32-23

Away / 10 Apr 2027, 12:00

Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.94
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-30-49

Home / 17 Apr 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.94
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
55-27-17

Away / 24 Apr 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.13
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-30-42

Home / 1 May 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.59
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
43-31-26

Home / 8 May 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.74
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
48-30-22

Away / 15 May 2027, 12:00

Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.13
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-30-42

Home / 23 May 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.68
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-30-24

Away / 30 May 2027, 12:00

Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.78
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-27-56

Analyst brief

Structured interpretation layer

deterministic / evidence-backed

Brighton & Hove Albion are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

Brighton & Hove Albion are #15 now and project to finish #9.

This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.

Brighton & Hove Albion are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

6 absences; availability impact 36%; injuries 6, suspensions 0.

availability

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent chance creation profile is running ahead of their season baseline.

Recent xG diff +0.35 vs season xG diff +0.12.

performance

Brighton & Hove Albion are currently projecting outside the top four.

Projected finish #9; title 4.7%, top four 19.8%, relegation 14.6%.

projection