Chance-quality status
The variance layer is live, but event-derived shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb seasons are archive material here, not current diagnosis input.
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Core table and fixture data render first. Analyst layers attach progressively after that.
Club hub
Deep dive into the live model state for Brighton & Hove Albion: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.
Current state
#8
Team Snapshot
Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.
Goal timing
35 scored · 28 conceded · 38 matches
Peak scoring window
80-90+' · 0.29/match
Peak conceding window
70-80' · 0.13/match
Performance Index
Top-line read
Mostly finishing slump
Brighton & Hove Albion's underlying chance differential is still close to season level, but the conversion layer has cooled sharply. The wobble looks more like execution loss than a full tactical collapse.
Sub-indices
+0.37 xG/90 against the season baseline.
+0.01 xGA/90 better than season norm.
-0.54 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 5 5 matches 100% xG coverage | 03-14 to 04-21 5 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 38 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.60 | 1.39 |
| Goal diff / game | +0.00 | +1.40 | +0.16 |
| xG for / game | 1.91 | 1.86 | 1.54 |
| xGA / game | 1.40 | 0.86 | 1.41 |
| xG diff / game | +0.51 | +1.00 |
Consistency & variance
Swingy
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
Event-depth status
Chance-quality status
The variance layer is live, but event-derived shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb seasons are archive material here, not current diagnosis input.
Provider requirement
These PI layers only come back when the product has a current or recent Premier League event provider. Do not read the dormant state as a hidden historical fallback.
Territorial status
Territorial control is paused in live Premier League mode. The free StatsBomb archive in this repo is not current enough to support field-tilt or PPDA claims honestly.
Game-state status
Game-state diagnosis is also paused until a current event feed with score context exists. Historical open-data shots are not being stretched into live 2025/26 stories.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is -0.49 per match against the club's best five-game spell.
Finishing swing is -0.34 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last five have come against average opponent rank 11.8, versus 10.6 across the season.
Lineup continuity is -0.03 against the season norm.
What might help
The base process is still closer to good than the scorelines suggest
Recent xG difference is +0.39 against the season baseline, but finishing has swung -0.34 goals per match.
What might help: Keep the attacking structure stable and focus on restoring final-action quality rather than assuming the whole model of play is broken.
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
6 missing players and 36% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.
Recent trend
Last 5 vs Last 10
| Metric | Last 5 | Last 10 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPG | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.39 |
| xG for / game | 1.91 | 1.72 | 1.54 |
| xGA / game | 1.40 | 1.15 | 1.41 |
| xG diff / game | +0.51 | +0.57 | +0.12 |
| Execution swing | -0.50 | -0.27 | +0.04 |
Best defensive spell
03-01 to 04-11
Unbeaten spell
5-match unbeaten run
Brighton & Hove Albion has dated xG coverage for 5/5 matches in the current window and 38/38 across the season sample used here.
PI-2: Chance-quality shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. The available StatsBomb feed is archival, not current-season evidence. PI-3: Territorial diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb open data is not a current control signal for this product. PI-4: Game-state diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode until a current event feed with score-context shots exists.
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1622
⚠ Divergence: 337 pts
Table context
#6 Bournemouth
GD +4
57
points
#7 Sunderland
GD -6
54
points
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion
GD +6
53
points
#9 Brentford
GD +3
53
points
#10 Chelsea
GD +6
52
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / High load
Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 4 recent starts, 4 straight starts.
Top finisher
Danny Welbeck
0.25 finisher / 0.13 recent attack
Top creator
Yankuba Minteh
0.16 creator / 0.08 recent creator
Top connector
Yankuba Minteh
0.26 control / MID
Top protector
Lewis Dunk
0.60 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Bart Verbruggen
0 / 100 form / 0.13 recent attack
Highest load
Bart Verbruggen
88% load / 0 form
Run-in map
Run-in outlook unavailable
Remaining-fixture outlook could not be assembled for this club from the current unresolved fixture set.
Analyst brief
Brighton & Hove Albion are materially behind last season's pace at the same stage.
Brighton & Hove Albion are #8 now and project to finish #8, with 53 points from 38 matches in 2025/26.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Brighton & Hove Albion are materially behind last season's pace at the same stage.
2025/26: 53 pts vs 2024/25: 61 pts after 38 matches.
Brighton & Hove Albion are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
6 absences; availability impact 36%; injuries 6, suspensions 0.
Brighton & Hove Albion are carrying a weaker full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +53.0 vs last season stage pace +61.0 (-8.0).
Brighton & Hove Albion sit in the middle of their recent Premier League range rather than at an extreme.
Same-stage rank 2/3; best benchmark 2024/25.
| +0.12 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.51 | +0.14 | -0.17 |
| Defensive delta / game | +0.01 | +0.26 | +0.20 |
| Average opponent rank | 11.8 | 11.6 | 10.6 |
| Average rest days | 7.2 | 9.6 | 7.6 |
| Lineup continuity | 70% | 77% | 73% |
| Player load index | 100% | 100% | 100% |