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Club hub

Chelsea

Deep dive into the live model state for Chelsea: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.

Current rank
20
Points
0
Goal diff
0
Projected finish
17

Current state

#20

Bottom 3
Power score1555
ClubElo feedClubElo England ratings
xG feedUnderstat cached snapshot
Availability feedManual availability snapshot
Player load feedFPL player load snapshot
Current rank
#20
0 pts
Projected finish
#17
18.7% top 4 probability
Next fixture
Fulham vs Chelsea
24 Aug 2026, 19:00
Next-fixture edge
26.5%
Chelsea win probability
Model readiness
Ready
77 XI / 78 load snapshots
Form consistency:Reliable

Team Snapshot

Team snapshot and key signals

Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.

Shot Map

0 goals0 on target0 shots · 0.0 xG+0.0 vs xG
Loading shot data…
Goal On target Off target / blockedCircle size = xG value

Match Phase Breakdown

Loading phase data…

Passing Network

Loading network…

Goal timing

Goal distribution by 10-minute window

35 scored · 34 conceded · 38 matches

Peak scoring window

50-60' · 0.18/match

Peak conceding window

0-10' · 0.18/match

0-10'
0.05/match (2)0.18/match (7)
10-20'
0.05/match (2)0.05/match (2)
20-30'
0.13/match (5)0.05/match (2)
30-40'
0.16/match (6)0.08/match (3)
40-50'
0.03/match (1)0.08/match (3)
50-60'
0.18/match (7)0.10/match (4)
60-70'
0.13/match (5)0.10/match (4)
70-80'
0.03/match (1)0.10/match (4)
80-90+'
0.16/match (6)0.13/match (5)

Model snapshot

Current rating split

Internal Elo
1502
ClubElo
1831
Blended Elo
1574

Hybrid Elo Rating

1617

low confidence

⚠ Divergence: 329 pts

Internal 1502External 1831
65%35%
Attack55
Defence53
Recent form50
Availability71

Table context

Where the club sits now

#18 Liverpool

GD +0

0

points

#19 Fulham

GD +0

0

points

#20 Chelsea

GD +0

0

points

Fan sentiment

Loading…

Fear — Greed0 · 50 · 100

Role board

Squad role board

Selected role profile

Trevoh Chalobah

DEF / Protector-led / High load

Finisher
7 / 100
Creator
8 / 100
Connector
22 / 100
Protection
63 / 100
Form
0 / 100
Load
86 / 100
Goals
3
0.0 xG
Assists
1
0.0 xA
Starts
28
2460 mins

Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 22 straight starts.

Top finisher

João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus

0.27 finisher / 0.13 recent attack

Top creator

Pedro Lomba Neto

0.14 creator / 0.08 recent creator

Top connector

Enzo Fernández

0.28 control / MID

Top protector

Trevoh Chalobah

0.63 defence / Protector-led

Best current form

Trevoh Chalobah

0 / 100 form / 0.04 recent attack

Highest load

Enzo Fernández

86% load / 0 form

Unavailable context

Estevao / injuryJamie Gittens / injuryLevi Colwill / injuryMykhaylo Mudryk / injuryAaron Anselmino / injury

Run-in map

Remaining fixtures and likely haul

probability-led / band-adjusted context
Remaining fixtures
38
16 vs top eight
Expected haul
45.0 pts
1.19 PPG from here
Historical run-in fit
N/A
Historical bucket context still shallow
Run-in fit
Unknown
0 strongest-fit / 0 weakest-fit

Fit read

unknown

Chelsea's remaining mix is live, but the band-history sample is still thin.

Run-in split uses the live current table snapshot to classify each remaining opponent. Expected points come from match probabilities; historical split PPG is context from Chelsea's finished matches in the same band and venue split.

Pressure points

8 top-four and 16 top-eight tests remain.

Shape of the run-in

0 fixtures mirror their strongest band split; 0 hit their weakest split.

Fixture board

The model probability is the forward-looking call. Historical split PPG is a context layer from the club’s finished matches against the same opponent band and venue split.

Away / 24 Aug 2026, 19:00

Fulham vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.10
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
27-31-43

Home / 30 Aug 2026, 13:00

Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.31
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-28-38

Away / 6 Sept 2026, 15:30

Arsenal vs Chelsea

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.75
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
16-27-57

Home / 12 Sept 2026, 14:00

Chelsea vs Hull City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-31-27

Away / 18 Sept 2026, 19:00

Brentford vs Chelsea

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.00
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
23-30-47

Home / 10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.28
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-28-39

Away / 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Everton vs Chelsea

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.02
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-31-46

Home / 24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.35
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
36-28-36

Home / 31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Chelsea vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-30-42

Away / 7 Nov 2026, 15:00

Sunderland vs Chelsea

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.05
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
25-32-44

Home / 21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Chelsea vs Leeds

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.30
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-29-38

Away / 28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.96
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-31-47

Home / 2 Dec 2026, 20:00

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.55
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Home / 5 Dec 2026, 15:00

Chelsea vs Liverpool

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.44
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
38-29-32

Away / 12 Dec 2026, 15:00

Manchester City vs Chelsea

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.82
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
18-28-54

Home / 19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Chelsea vs Aston Villa

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.15
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Away / 26 Dec 2026, 15:00

Coventry City vs Chelsea

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.40
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
37-28-34

Away / 30 Dec 2026, 20:00

Ipswich vs Chelsea

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.32
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-29-37

Home / 2 Jan 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.53
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Away / 6 Jan 2027, 12:00

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.10
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-31-42

Home / 16 Jan 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-32-28

Away / 23 Jan 2027, 12:00

Leeds vs Chelsea

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.93
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-31-48

Home / 30 Jan 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.53
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Away / 6 Feb 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Chelsea

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.80
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-28-55

Away / 10 Feb 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.04
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-32-44

Home / 20 Feb 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Ipswich

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.56
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-33-26

Away / 27 Feb 2027, 12:00

Aston Villa vs Chelsea

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.81
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
18-28-54

Home / 3 Mar 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Coventry City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-32-27

Home / 13 Mar 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Arsenal

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.79
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-27-56

Away / 20 Mar 2027, 12:00

Hull City vs Chelsea

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.41
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
38-27-35

Home / 10 Apr 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Fulham

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.55
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-30-28

Away / 17 Apr 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.79
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-27-55

Home / 24 Apr 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.93
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-29-50

Away / 1 May 2027, 12:00

Liverpool vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.82
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
18-28-54

Away / 8 May 2027, 12:00

Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.94
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-30-49

Home / 15 May 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-29-28

Away / 23 May 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Chelsea

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.80
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-28-55

Home / 30 May 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Brentford

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.55
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-30-28

Analyst brief

Structured interpretation layer

deterministic / evidence-backed

Chelsea are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

Chelsea are #20 now and project to finish #17.

This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.

Chelsea are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

5 absences; availability impact 29%; injuries 5, suspensions 0.

availability

Chelsea's recent chance profile has dipped below their season baseline.

Recent xG diff -0.67 vs season xG diff +0.37.

performance

Chelsea are currently projecting outside the top four.

Projected finish #17; title 4.2%, top four 18.7%, relegation 14.9%.

projection