Top finisher
Jean-Philippe Mateta
0.41 finisher / 0.45 recent attack
Club hub
Resolving season-matched standings, fixtures, ratings and evidence.
Current state
#15
Team Snapshot
This season against last, table context, rating split, role leaders, the analyst brief and the Performance Index.
Season on season
Crystal Palace are 5 points behind last season after 5 matches: 4 points against 9 in 2025/26, a season they finished #15 on 45 points.
Cumulative points curve & finish-line pace
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1587
⚠ Divergence: 365 pts
Table context
#13 Nottingham Forest
GD -1
5
points
#14 Sunderland
GD -4
4
points
#15 Crystal Palace
GD -5
4
points
#16 Aston Villa
GD -5
4
points
#17 Bournemouth
GD -2
3
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / Managed load
Recent output: 2 goals, 0 assists, 1.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 5 straight starts.
Top finisher
Jean-Philippe Mateta
0.41 finisher / 0.45 recent attack
Top creator
Eddie Nketiah
0.25 creator / 0.49 recent creator
Top connector
Daichi Kamada
0.31 control / MID
Top protector
Dean Henderson
0.52 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Tyrick Mitchell
31 / 100 form / 0.23 recent attack
Highest load
Daichi Kamada
33% load / 28 form
Unavailable context
Analyst brief
Crystal Palace are materially behind last season's pace at the same stage.
2026/27: 4 pts vs 2025/26: 9 pts after 5 matches.
Crystal Palace are #15 now and project to finish #15, with 4 points from 5 matches in 2026/27.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Crystal Palace are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
4 absences; availability impact 20%; injuries 4, suspensions 0.
Crystal Palace are carrying a weaker full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +30.4 vs last season stage pace +68.4 (-38.0).
Crystal Palace are underperforming their own recent three-season pace baseline.
Current pace delta vs recent average: -17.7 points.
Performance Index
Top-line read
Holding to season level
Crystal Palace's chance creation, chance prevention and finishing in this spell are all within normal range of their season level.
Sub-indices
-0.04 xG/90 against the season baseline.
+0.00 xGA/90 better than season norm.
+1.03 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | 08-22 to 09-05 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 5 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goal diff / game | +0.00 | -1.33 | -1.00 |
| xG for / game | 1.48 | 1.84 | 1.52 |
| xGA / game | 2.00 | 2.30 | 2.00 |
| xG diff / game |
Consistency & variance
Swingy
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is -0.07 per match against the club's best 3-game spell.
Finishing swing is +0.51 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last 3 have come against average opponent rank 11.7, versus 8.6 across the season.
Lineup continuity is +0.05 against the season norm.
What might help
Chance creation has softened from the club's peak spell
Current xG for is -0.36 per match versus the best 3-game stretch.
What might help: Look for ways to recover central access, cleaner box occupation, or the creator combinations that were present during the stronger run.
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
4 missing players and 20% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.
Best defensive spell
09-05 to 09-20
Crystal Palace has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 5/5 across the season sample used here.
| -0.53 |
| -0.46 |
| -0.49 |
| Goals - xG / game | +0.19 | -0.51 | -0.32 |
| Defensive delta / game | +0.33 | -0.37 | -0.20 |
| Average opponent rank | 11.7 | 9.0 | 8.6 |
| Average rest days | 7.6 | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Lineup continuity | 37% | 16% | 32% |
| Player load index | 81% | 43% | 71% |