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Club hub

Manchester City

Deep dive into the live model state for Manchester City: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.

Current rank
13
Points
0
Goal diff
0
Projected finish
2

Current state

#13

Mid
Power score1680
ClubElo feedClubElo England ratings
xG feedUnderstat cached snapshot
Availability feedManual availability snapshot
Player load feedFPL player load snapshot
Current rank
#13
0 pts
Projected finish
#2
35.0% top 4 probability
Next fixture
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
23 Aug 2026, 13:00
Next-fixture edge
47.8%
Manchester City win probability
Model readiness
Ready
77 XI / 78 load snapshots
Form consistency:Reliable

Team Snapshot

Team snapshot and key signals

Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.

Shot Map

0 goals0 on target0 shots · 0.0 xG+0.0 vs xG
Loading shot data…
Goal On target Off target / blockedCircle size = xG value

Match Phase Breakdown

Loading phase data…

Passing Network

Loading network…

Goal timing

Goal distribution by 10-minute window

58 scored · 29 conceded · 38 matches

Peak scoring window

60-70' · 0.32/match

Peak conceding window

60-70' · 0.16/match

0-10'
0.13/match (5)0.00/match (0)
10-20'
0.13/match (5)0.05/match (2)
20-30'
0.05/match (2)0.05/match (2)
30-40'
0.29/match (11)0.08/match (3)
40-50'
0.26/match (10)0.08/match (3)
50-60'
0.05/match (2)0.10/match (4)
60-70'
0.32/match (12)0.16/match (6)
70-80'
0.03/match (1)0.13/match (5)
80-90+'
0.26/match (10)0.10/match (4)

Model snapshot

Current rating split

Internal Elo
1612
ClubElo
1971
Blended Elo
1691

Hybrid Elo Rating

1738

low confidence

⚠ Divergence: 359 pts

Internal 1612External 1971
65%35%
Attack61
Defence50
Recent form50
Availability68

Table context

Where the club sits now

#11 Brentford

GD +0

0

points

#12 Tottenham Hotspur

GD +0

0

points

#13 Manchester City

GD +0

0

points

#14 Bournemouth

GD +0

0

points

#15 Brighton & Hove Albion

GD +0

0

points

Fan sentiment

Loading…

Fear — Greed0 · 50 · 100

Role board

Squad role board

Selected role profile

Marc Guéhi

DEF / Protector-led / High load

Finisher
7 / 100
Creator
10 / 100
Connector
22 / 100
Protection
63 / 100
Form
0 / 100
Load
85 / 100
Goals
2
0.0 xG
Assists
4
0.0 xA
Starts
27
2430 mins

Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 7 straight starts.

Top finisher

Erling Haaland

0.28 finisher / 0.13 recent attack

Top creator

Rayan Cherki

0.17 creator / 0.08 recent creator

Top connector

Antoine Semenyo

0.28 control / MID

Top protector

Marc Guéhi

0.63 defence / Protector-led

Best current form

Antoine Semenyo

0 / 100 form / 0.09 recent attack

Highest load

Antoine Semenyo

89% load / 0 form

Unavailable context

Jack Grealish / injuryJosko Gvardiol / injuryMateo Kovacic / injuryMateo Kovacic / injuryMax Alleyne / injury

Run-in map

Remaining fixtures and likely haul

probability-led / band-adjusted context
Remaining fixtures
38
16 vs top eight
Expected haul
65.9 pts
1.73 PPG from here
Historical run-in fit
N/A
Historical bucket context still shallow
Run-in fit
Unknown
0 strongest-fit / 0 weakest-fit

Fit read

unknown

Manchester City's remaining mix is live, but the band-history sample is still thin.

Run-in split uses the live current table snapshot to classify each remaining opponent. Expected points come from match probabilities; historical split PPG is context from Manchester City's finished matches in the same band and venue split.

Pressure points

8 top-four and 16 top-eight tests remain.

Shape of the run-in

0 fixtures mirror their strongest band split; 0 hit their weakest split.

Fixture board

The model probability is the forward-looking call. Historical split PPG is a context layer from the club’s finished matches against the same opponent band and venue split.

Home / 23 Aug 2026, 13:00

Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.74
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
48-30-22

Away / 28 Aug 2026, 19:00

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.93
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
55-26-18

Home / 5 Sept 2026, 14:00

Manchester City vs Coventry City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.99
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
58-27-16

Away / 13 Sept 2026, 15:30

Manchester United vs Manchester City

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.04
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
25-30-45

Home / 19 Sept 2026, 14:00

Manchester City vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.95
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
56-27-17

Away / 10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.25
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
32-28-40

Home / 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Manchester City vs Ipswich

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.94
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
56-27-17

Away / 24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.19
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
30-30-40

Home / 31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.89
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
54-27-19

Away / 7 Nov 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.65
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-24

Home / 21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Manchester City vs Fulham

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.91
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
54-28-18

Away / 28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Arsenal vs Manchester City

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.99
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-32-46

Home / 2 Dec 2026, 20:00

Manchester City vs Leeds

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.77
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-31-21

Away / 5 Dec 2026, 15:00

Brentford vs Manchester City

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Home / 12 Dec 2026, 15:00

Manchester City vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.90
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
54-28-18

Home / 19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Manchester City vs Hull City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.95
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
56-28-16

Away / 26 Dec 2026, 15:00

Newcastle United vs Manchester City

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.64
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-24

Away / 30 Dec 2026, 20:00

Everton vs Manchester City

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.76
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
48-30-21

Home / 2 Jan 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.75
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
48-31-21

Away / 6 Jan 2027, 12:00

Leeds vs Manchester City

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.65
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-24

Home / 16 Jan 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.79
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-31-20

Away / 23 Jan 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.55
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Home / 30 Jan 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Arsenal

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Away / 6 Feb 2027, 12:00

Fulham vs Manchester City

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.91
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
54-28-17

Away / 10 Feb 2027, 12:00

Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.69
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-32-22

Home / 20 Feb 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.78
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-31-20

Away / 27 Feb 2027, 12:00

Hull City vs Manchester City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.94
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
56-28-17

Home / 3 Mar 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.93
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
55-28-17

Away / 13 Mar 2027, 12:00

Coventry City vs Manchester City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
2.02
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
59-26-16

Home / 20 Mar 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.76
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-30-21

Away / 10 Apr 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.44
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
39-28-33

Home / 17 Apr 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.98
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
57-27-16

Away / 24 Apr 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Manchester City

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.78
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
50-29-21

Home / 1 May 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Brentford

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.97
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
57-27-16

Home / 8 May 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Liverpool

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.98
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
57-26-16

Away / 15 May 2027, 12:00

Ipswich vs Manchester City

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.93
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
55-27-18

Home / 23 May 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Aston Villa

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.77
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-30-21

Away / 30 May 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Manchester City

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.71
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-30-23

Analyst brief

Structured interpretation layer

deterministic / evidence-backed

Manchester City are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

Manchester City are #13 now and project to finish #2.

This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.

Manchester City are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

5 absences; availability impact 32%; injuries 5, suspensions 0.

availability

Manchester City are currently projecting inside the top four.

Projected finish #2; title 11.0%, top four 35.0%, relegation 6.9%.

projection