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Club hub

Manchester United

Deep dive into the live model state for Manchester United: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.

Current rank
4
Points
0
Goal diff
0
Projected finish
3

Current state

#4

Top 4
Power score1637
ClubElo feedClubElo England ratings
xG feedUnderstat cached snapshot
Availability feedManual availability snapshot
Player load feedFPL player load snapshot
Current rank
#4
0 pts
Projected finish
#3
21.9% top 4 probability
Next fixture
Hull City vs Manchester United
22 Aug 2026, 11:30
Next-fixture edge
48.5%
Manchester United win probability
Model readiness
Ready
77 XI / 78 load snapshots
Form consistency:Reliable

Team Snapshot

Team snapshot and key signals

Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.

Shot Map

0 goals0 on target0 shots · 0.0 xG+0.0 vs xG
Loading shot data…
Goal On target Off target / blockedCircle size = xG value

Match Phase Breakdown

Loading phase data…

Passing Network

Loading network…

Goal timing

Goal distribution by 10-minute window

44 scored · 31 conceded · 38 matches

Peak scoring window

50-60' · 0.21/match

Peak conceding window

80-90+' · 0.21/match

0-10'
0.08/match (3)0.05/match (2)
10-20'
0.05/match (2)0.00/match (0)
20-30'
0.10/match (4)0.05/match (2)
30-40'
0.10/match (4)0.00/match (0)
40-50'
0.13/match (5)0.13/match (5)
50-60'
0.21/match (8)0.16/match (6)
60-70'
0.13/match (5)0.16/match (6)
70-80'
0.16/match (6)0.05/match (2)
80-90+'
0.18/match (7)0.21/match (8)

Model snapshot

Current rating split

Internal Elo
1579
ClubElo
1915
Blended Elo
1653

Hybrid Elo Rating

1697

low confidence

⚠ Divergence: 336 pts

Internal 1579External 1915
65%35%
Attack59
Defence52
Recent form50
Availability66

Table context

Where the club sits now

#2 Coventry City

GD +0

0

points

#3 Hull City

GD +0

0

points

#4 Manchester United

GD +0

0

points

#5 Ipswich

GD +0

0

points

#6 Sunderland

GD +0

0

points

Fan sentiment

Loading…

Fear — Greed0 · 50 · 100

Role board

Squad role board

The player-profile layer is not deep enough yet to expose a reliable role board for Manchester United.

Run-in map

Remaining fixtures and likely haul

probability-led / band-adjusted context
Remaining fixtures
38
14 vs top eight
Expected haul
61.3 pts
1.61 PPG from here
Historical run-in fit
N/A
Historical bucket context still shallow
Run-in fit
Unknown
0 strongest-fit / 0 weakest-fit

Fit read

unknown

Manchester United's remaining mix is live, but the band-history sample is still thin.

Run-in split uses the live current table snapshot to classify each remaining opponent. Expected points come from match probabilities; historical split PPG is context from Manchester United's finished matches in the same band and venue split.

Pressure points

6 top-four and 14 top-eight tests remain.

Shape of the run-in

0 fixtures mirror their strongest band split; 0 hit their weakest split.

Fixture board

The model probability is the forward-looking call. Historical split PPG is a context layer from the club’s finished matches against the same opponent band and venue split.

Away / 22 Aug 2026, 11:30

Hull City vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.75
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-29-22

Home / 30 Aug 2026, 15:30

Manchester United vs Ipswich

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.94
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
56-27-17

Away / 6 Sept 2026, 13:00

Everton vs Manchester United

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.36
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
35-31-34

Home / 13 Sept 2026, 15:30

Manchester United vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.66
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-30-25

Away / 20 Sept 2026, 15:30

Fulham vs Manchester United

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.69
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-30-23

Home / 10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.78
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-30-21

Away / 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Leeds vs Manchester United

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.39
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
37-29-34

Home / 24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Manchester United vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.74
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
48-30-22

Away / 31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Chelsea vs Manchester United

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-30-28

Home / 7 Nov 2026, 15:00

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.70
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-31-23

Away / 21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Liverpool vs Manchester United

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.12
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
27-31-42

Home / 28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Manchester United vs Brentford

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.90
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
54-28-18

Away / 2 Dec 2026, 20:00

Newcastle United vs Manchester United

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.39
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
36-30-34

Home / 5 Dec 2026, 15:00

Manchester United vs Coventry City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.92
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
55-28-18

Away / 12 Dec 2026, 15:00

Crystal Palace vs Manchester United

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.67
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-31-24

Away / 19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Arsenal vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.99
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-32-46

Home / 26 Dec 2026, 15:00

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.76
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-30-21

Home / 30 Dec 2026, 20:00

Manchester United vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.92
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
55-28-17

Away / 2 Jan 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.33
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-30-36

Home / 6 Jan 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.78
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-31-20

Away / 16 Jan 2027, 12:00

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
27-32-41

Home / 23 Jan 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Liverpool

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.73
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-31-22

Away / 30 Jan 2027, 12:00

Brentford vs Manchester United

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.27
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
32-30-38

Home / 6 Feb 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.92
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
55-28-17

Home / 10 Feb 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.73
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-31-22

Away / 20 Feb 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.40
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
37-30-33

Home / 27 Feb 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Arsenal

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.38
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
36-29-34

Away / 3 Mar 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Manchester United

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.40
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
36-31-33

Home / 13 Mar 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.98
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
57-27-16

Away / 20 Mar 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Manchester United

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.94
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-30-49

Home / 10 Apr 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Hull City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.98
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
57-27-16

Away / 17 Apr 2027, 12:00

Ipswich vs Manchester United

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.71
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-30-23

Home / 24 Apr 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.98
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
57-26-16

Away / 1 May 2027, 12:00

Coventry City vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.75
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-29-22

Away / 8 May 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Manchester United

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.30
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-28-38

Home / 15 May 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Leeds

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.75
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
49-29-22

Away / 23 May 2027, 12:00

Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-32-26

Home / 30 May 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Fulham

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.98
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
57-27-16

Analyst brief

Structured interpretation layer

deterministic / evidence-backed

Manchester United are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

Manchester United are #4 now and project to finish #3.

This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.

Manchester United are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

5 absences; availability impact 34%; injuries 5, suspensions 0.

availability

Manchester United are currently projecting inside the top four.

Projected finish #3; title 6.1%, top four 21.9%, relegation 13.2%.

projection