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Club hub

Newcastle United

Deep dive into the live model state for Newcastle United: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.

Current rank
17
Points
0
Goal diff
0
Projected finish
11

Current state

#17

Mid
Power score1542
ClubElo feedClubElo England ratings
xG feedUnderstat cached snapshot
Availability feedManual availability snapshot
Player load feedFPL player load snapshot
Current rank
#17
0 pts
Projected finish
#11
21.1% top 4 probability
Next fixture
Newcastle United vs Liverpool
23 Aug 2026, 15:30
Next-fixture edge
39.5%
Newcastle United win probability
Model readiness
Ready
77 XI / 78 load snapshots
Form consistency:Reliable

Team Snapshot

Team snapshot and key signals

Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.

Shot Map

0 goals0 on target0 shots · 0.0 xG+0.0 vs xG
Loading shot data…
Goal On target Off target / blockedCircle size = xG value

Match Phase Breakdown

Loading phase data…

Passing Network

Loading network…

Goal timing

Goal distribution by 10-minute window

32 scored · 31 conceded · 38 matches

Peak scoring window

80-90+' · 0.16/match

Peak conceding window

80-90+' · 0.29/match

0-10'
0.05/match (2)0.03/match (1)
10-20'
0.10/match (4)0.05/match (2)
20-30'
0.08/match (3)0.00/match (0)
30-40'
0.10/match (4)0.13/match (5)
40-50'
0.05/match (2)0.10/match (4)
50-60'
0.05/match (2)0.03/match (1)
60-70'
0.10/match (4)0.16/match (6)
70-80'
0.13/match (5)0.03/match (1)
80-90+'
0.16/match (6)0.29/match (11)

Model snapshot

Current rating split

Internal Elo
1489
ClubElo
1838
Blended Elo
1566

Hybrid Elo Rating

1611

low confidence

⚠ Divergence: 349 pts

Internal 1489External 1838
65%35%
Attack53
Defence52
Recent form50
Availability58

Table context

Where the club sits now

#15 Brighton & Hove Albion

GD +0

0

points

#16 Aston Villa

GD +0

0

points

#17 Newcastle United

GD +0

0

points

#18 Liverpool

GD +0

0

points

#19 Fulham

GD +0

0

points

Fan sentiment

Loading…

Fear — Greed0 · 50 · 100

Role board

Squad role board

Selected role profile

Malick Thiaw

DEF / Protector-led / High load

Finisher
8 / 100
Creator
8 / 100
Connector
21 / 100
Protection
61 / 100
Form
0 / 100
Load
79 / 100
Goals
4
0.0 xG
Assists
0
0.0 xA
Starts
25
2207 mins

Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 25 straight starts.

Top finisher

Nick Woltemade

0.23 finisher / 0.13 recent attack

Top creator

Anthony Gordon

0.13 creator / 0.08 recent creator

Top connector

Sandro Tonali

0.27 control / MID

Top protector

Malick Thiaw

0.61 defence / Protector-led

Best current form

Malick Thiaw

0 / 100 form / 0.04 recent attack

Highest load

Malick Thiaw

79% load / 0 form

Unavailable context

Bruno Guimaraes / injuryJacob Ramsey / injuryLewis Miley / injuryFabian Schaer / injuryEmil Krafth / injury

Run-in map

Remaining fixtures and likely haul

probability-led / band-adjusted context
Remaining fixtures
38
16 vs top eight
Expected haul
50.5 pts
1.33 PPG from here
Historical run-in fit
N/A
Historical bucket context still shallow
Run-in fit
Unknown
0 strongest-fit / 0 weakest-fit

Fit read

unknown

Newcastle United's remaining mix is live, but the band-history sample is still thin.

Run-in split uses the live current table snapshot to classify each remaining opponent. Expected points come from match probabilities; historical split PPG is context from Newcastle United's finished matches in the same band and venue split.

Pressure points

8 top-four and 16 top-eight tests remain.

Shape of the run-in

0 fixtures mirror their strongest band split; 0 hit their weakest split.

Fixture board

The model probability is the forward-looking call. Historical split PPG is a context layer from the club’s finished matches against the same opponent band and venue split.

Home / 23 Aug 2026, 15:30

Newcastle United vs Liverpool

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.47
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
40-29-32

Away / 29 Aug 2026, 16:30

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.05
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
25-31-45

Home / 5 Sept 2026, 11:30

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.47
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
39-28-32

Away / 14 Sept 2026, 19:00

Leeds vs Newcastle United

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.13
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
27-32-41

Home / 19 Sept 2026, 14:00

Newcastle United vs Hull City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.72
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-31-22

Away / 10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Coventry City vs Newcastle United

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.66
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-30-25

Home / 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.37
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
36-28-35

Away / 24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.24
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
32-29-40

Home / 31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Newcastle United vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.68
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-30-24

Away / 7 Nov 2026, 15:00

Fulham vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.15
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Home / 21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Newcastle United vs Arsenal

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.04
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-32-44

Away / 28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.02
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
23-32-44

Home / 2 Dec 2026, 20:00

Newcastle United vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.31
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-30-36

Home / 5 Dec 2026, 15:00

Newcastle United vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.68
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-32-23

Away / 12 Dec 2026, 15:00

Ipswich vs Newcastle United

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.45
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
38-29-32

Away / 19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Brentford vs Newcastle United

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Home / 26 Dec 2026, 15:00

Newcastle United vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.05
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-32-44

Home / 30 Dec 2026, 20:00

Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.59
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-32-26

Away / 2 Jan 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.16
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Away / 6 Jan 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Newcastle United

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.91
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
20-31-49

Home / 16 Jan 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Fulham

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.69
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-32-22

Away / 23 Jan 2027, 12:00

Arsenal vs Newcastle United

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.79
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-28-55

Home / 30 Jan 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Away / 6 Feb 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Newcastle United

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-32-41

Home / 10 Feb 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.64
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-24

Away / 20 Feb 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Newcastle United

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.91
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
20-31-49

Home / 27 Feb 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Brentford

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.64
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-24

Away / 3 Mar 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.09
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-32-42

Away / 13 Mar 2027, 12:00

Bournemouth vs Newcastle United

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.95
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-31-48

Home / 20 Mar 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Leeds

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.52
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-29

Away / 10 Apr 2027, 12:00

Liverpool vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.03
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-30-45

Home / 17 Apr 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Home / 24 Apr 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Ipswich

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.67
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-32-23

Away / 1 May 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Newcastle United

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.16
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
29-30-41

Home / 8 May 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Coventry City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.67
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-32-23

Away / 15 May 2027, 12:00

Aston Villa vs Newcastle United

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.82
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
18-28-54

Home / 23 May 2027, 12:00

Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.73
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
48-30-22

Away / 30 May 2027, 12:00

Hull City vs Newcastle United

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.69
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-30-24

Analyst brief

Structured interpretation layer

deterministic / evidence-backed

Newcastle United are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

Newcastle United are #17 now and project to finish #11.

This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.

Newcastle United are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

5 absences; availability impact 42%; injuries 5, suspensions 0.

availability

Newcastle United are currently projecting outside the top four.

Projected finish #11; title 5.3%, top four 21.1%, relegation 13.1%.

projection