Top finisher
Yoane Wissa
0.39 finisher / 0.52 recent attack
Club hub
Resolving season-matched standings, fixtures, ratings and evidence.
Current state
#9
Team Snapshot
This season against last, table context, rating split, role leaders, the analyst brief and the Performance Index.
Season on season
Newcastle United are 2 points ahead of last season after 5 matches: 8 points against 6 in 2025/26, a season they finished #12 on 49 points.
Cumulative points curve & finish-line pace
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1646
⚠ Divergence: 359 pts
Table context
#7 Everton
GD +3
9
points
#8 Hull City
GD +2
8
points
#9 Newcastle United
GD +0
8
points
#10 Chelsea
GD -2
7
points
#11 Ipswich
GD -4
6
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / Managed load
Recent output: 1 goals, 1 assists, 1.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 5 straight starts.
Top finisher
Yoane Wissa
0.39 finisher / 0.52 recent attack
Top creator
Anthony Elanga
0.20 creator / 0.31 recent creator
Top connector
Lewis Hall
0.26 control / DEF
Top protector
Lukás Hornícek
0.59 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Yoane Wissa
37 / 100 form / 0.52 recent attack
Highest load
Harvey Barnes
33% load / 34 form
Unavailable context
Analyst brief
Newcastle United are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
10 absences; availability impact 62%; injuries 10, suspensions 0.
Newcastle United are #9 now and project to finish #14, with 8 points from 5 matches in 2026/27.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Newcastle United are carrying a stronger full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +60.8 vs last season stage pace +45.6 (+15.2).
Newcastle United are outperforming their own recent three-season pace baseline.
Current pace delta vs recent average: +5.1 points.
Newcastle United sit in the middle of their recent Premier League range rather than at an extreme.
Same-stage rank 2/4; best benchmark 2024/25.
Performance Index
Top-line read
Mixed signals
Newcastle United's spell is slightly off their season level in one area without a consistent downturn across the others.
Sub-indices
-0.13 xG/90 against the season baseline.
+0.17 xGA/90 better than season norm.
-0.71 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 5 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.60 |
| Goal diff / game | -0.67 | +0.00 |
| xG for / game | 0.98 | 1.11 |
| xGA / game | 1.70 | 1.87 |
| xG diff / game | -0.72 | -0.76 |
| Goals - xG / game | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive delta / game |
Consistency & variance
Variable
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is +0.00 per match against the club's best 3-game spell.
Finishing swing is +0.00 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last 3 have come against average opponent rank 10.0, versus 11.2 across the season.
Lineup continuity is +0.05 against the season norm.
What might help
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
10 missing players and 62% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.
Best defensive spell
08-29 to 09-14
Unbeaten spell
3-match unbeaten run
Newcastle United has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 5/5 across the season sample used here.
| -0.64 |
| +0.07 |
| Average opponent rank | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| Average rest days | 7.0 | 6.7 |
| Lineup continuity | 36% | 31% |
| Player load index | 82% | 72% |