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Club hub

Sunderland

Deep dive into the live model state for Sunderland: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.

Current rank
6
Points
0
Goal diff
0
Projected finish
15

Current state

#6

Mid
Power score1525
ClubElo feedClubElo England ratings
xG feedUnderstat cached snapshot
Availability feedManual availability snapshot
Player load feedFPL player load snapshot
Current rank
#6
0 pts
Projected finish
#15
13.5% top 4 probability
Next fixture
Ipswich vs Sunderland
22 Aug 2026, 14:00
Next-fixture edge
33.8%
Sunderland win probability
Model readiness
Ready
77 XI / 78 load snapshots
Form consistency:Reliable

Team Snapshot

Team snapshot and key signals

Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.

Shot Map

0 goals0 on target0 shots · 0.0 xG+0.0 vs xG
Loading shot data…
Goal On target Off target / blockedCircle size = xG value

Match Phase Breakdown

Loading phase data…

Passing Network

Loading network…

Goal timing

Goal distribution by 10-minute window

25 scored · 29 conceded · 38 matches

Peak scoring window

80-90+' · 0.24/match

Peak conceding window

40-50' · 0.16/match

0-10'
0.03/match (1)0.08/match (3)
10-20'
0.03/match (1)0.08/match (3)
20-30'
0.05/match (2)0.00/match (0)
30-40'
0.08/match (3)0.13/match (5)
40-50'
0.05/match (2)0.16/match (6)
50-60'
0.05/match (2)0.08/match (3)
60-70'
0.05/match (2)0.05/match (2)
70-80'
0.08/match (3)0.05/match (2)
80-90+'
0.24/match (9)0.13/match (5)

Model snapshot

Current rating split

Internal Elo
1507
ClubElo
1736
Blended Elo
1557

Hybrid Elo Rating

1587

low confidence

⚠ Divergence: 229 pts

Internal 1507External 1736
65%35%
Attack47
Defence54
Recent form50
Availability25

Table context

Where the club sits now

#4 Manchester United

GD +0

0

points

#5 Ipswich

GD +0

0

points

#6 Sunderland

GD +0

0

points

#7 Nottingham Forest

GD +0

0

points

#8 Leeds

GD +0

0

points

Fan sentiment

Loading…

Fear — Greed0 · 50 · 100

Role board

Squad role board

Selected role profile

Trai Hume

DEF / Protector-led / High load

Finisher
6 / 100
Creator
8 / 100
Connector
22 / 100
Protection
63 / 100
Form
0 / 100
Load
83 / 100
Goals
0
0.0 xG
Assists
1
0.0 xA
Starts
27
2399 mins

Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 13 straight starts.

Top finisher

Wilson Isidor

0.22 finisher / 0.13 recent attack

Top creator

Granit Xhaka

0.14 creator / 0.08 recent creator

Top connector

Enzo Le Fée

0.28 control / MID

Top protector

Trai Hume

0.63 defence / Protector-led

Best current form

Trai Hume

0 / 100 form / 0.04 recent attack

Highest load

Trai Hume

83% load / 0 form

Unavailable context

Robin Roefs / injuryBrian Brobbey / injuryNordi Mukiele / injuryRomaine Mundle / injuryBertrand Traore / injuryReinildo / injuryJocelin Ta Bi / injuryJenson Seelt / injury

Run-in map

Remaining fixtures and likely haul

probability-led / band-adjusted context
Remaining fixtures
38
14 vs top eight
Expected haul
47.1 pts
1.24 PPG from here
Historical run-in fit
N/A
Historical bucket context still shallow
Run-in fit
Unknown
0 strongest-fit / 0 weakest-fit

Fit read

unknown

Sunderland's remaining mix is live, but the band-history sample is still thin.

Run-in split uses the live current table snapshot to classify each remaining opponent. Expected points come from match probabilities; historical split PPG is context from Sunderland's finished matches in the same band and venue split.

Pressure points

8 top-four and 14 top-eight tests remain.

Shape of the run-in

0 fixtures mirror their strongest band split; 0 hit their weakest split.

Fixture board

The model probability is the forward-looking call. Historical split PPG is a context layer from the club’s finished matches against the same opponent band and venue split.

Away / 22 Aug 2026, 14:00

Ipswich vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.29
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-28-39

Home / 30 Aug 2026, 13:00

Sunderland vs Fulham

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.56
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-32-26

Away / 5 Sept 2026, 14:00

Brentford vs Sunderland

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.08
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-31-43

Home / 12 Sept 2026, 19:00

Sunderland vs Arsenal

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.80
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
18-27-55

Away / 19 Sept 2026, 14:00

Manchester City vs Sunderland

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.78
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-27-56

Home / 10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.44
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
38-29-32

Away / 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.99
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
23-31-47

Home / 24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Sunderland vs Leeds

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.56
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-30-28

Away / 31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Coventry City vs Sunderland

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.47
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
40-27-33

Home / 7 Nov 2026, 15:00

Sunderland vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.63
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-25

Away / 21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Aston Villa vs Sunderland

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.96
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-32-47

Home / 28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.56
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-32-27

Away / 2 Dec 2026, 20:00

Liverpool vs Sunderland

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.97
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-32-47

Away / 5 Dec 2026, 15:00

Newcastle United vs Sunderland

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.00
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
23-32-45

Home / 12 Dec 2026, 15:00

Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.53
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-31-28

Home / 19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Sunderland vs Crystal Palace

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.58
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-32-26

Away / 26 Dec 2026, 15:00

Everton vs Sunderland

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.10
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-33-41

Away / 30 Dec 2026, 20:00

Manchester United vs Sunderland

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.80
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-28-55

Home / 2 Jan 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Hull City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.53
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
40-33-27

Home / 6 Jan 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Liverpool

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.32
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-30-36

Away / 16 Jan 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Sunderland

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-32-41

Home / 23 Jan 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Coventry City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
40-33-27

Away / 30 Jan 2027, 12:00

Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.94
1-0
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-32-47

Home / 6 Feb 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Aston Villa

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.30
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
33-30-36

Away / 10 Feb 2027, 12:00

Hull City vs Sunderland

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.46
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
39-29-32

Home / 20 Feb 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.58
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-33-26

Away / 27 Feb 2027, 12:00

Crystal Palace vs Sunderland

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.12
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
27-32-41

Home / 3 Mar 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.29
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
33-31-36

Home / 13 Mar 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Brentford

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.56
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-31-27

Away / 20 Mar 2027, 12:00

Arsenal vs Sunderland

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.70
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
14-27-59

Home / 10 Apr 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Ipswich

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.58
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-31-26

Away / 17 Apr 2027, 12:00

Fulham vs Sunderland

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.16
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Away / 24 Apr 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.00
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
23-31-46

Home / 1 May 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-30-29

Away / 8 May 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Sunderland

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.96
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-30-48

Home / 15 May 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.38
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
36-28-35

Away / 23 May 2027, 12:00

Leeds vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.96
1-0
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-31-47

Home / 30 May 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.99
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
23-30-47

Analyst brief

Structured interpretation layer

deterministic / evidence-backed

Sunderland are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

Sunderland are #6 now and project to finish #15.

This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.

Sunderland are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

9 absences; availability impact 75%; injuries 9, suspensions 0.

availability

Sunderland are currently projecting outside the top four.

Projected finish #15; title 3.0%, top four 13.5%, relegation 21.1%.

projection