Top finisher
Brian Brobbey
0.47 finisher / 0.65 recent attack
Club hub
Resolving season-matched standings, fixtures, ratings and evidence.
Current state
#14
Team Snapshot
This season against last, table context, rating split, role leaders, the analyst brief and the Performance Index.
Season on season
Sunderland are 4 points behind last season after 5 matches: 4 points against 8 in 2025/26, a season they finished #7 on 54 points.
Cumulative points curve & finish-line pace
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1575
⚠ Divergence: 250 pts
Table context
#12 Manchester United
GD +0
5
points
#13 Nottingham Forest
GD -1
5
points
#14 Sunderland
GD -4
4
points
#15 Crystal Palace
GD -5
4
points
#16 Aston Villa
GD -5
4
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
MID / Connector / Protector / Managed load
Recent output: 1 goals, 1 assists, 3.4 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 5 straight starts.
Top finisher
Brian Brobbey
0.47 finisher / 0.65 recent attack
Top creator
Enzo Le Fée
0.29 creator / 0.57 recent creator
Top connector
Enzo Le Fée
0.38 control / MID
Top protector
Robin Roefs
0.58 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Brian Brobbey
46 / 100 form / 0.65 recent attack
Highest load
Enzo Le Fée
32% load / 44 form
Unavailable context
Analyst brief
Sunderland are tracking as their weakest same-stage Premier League return across the last 2 seasons.
Same-stage rank 2/2; worst benchmark 2026/27.
Sunderland are #14 now and project to finish #13, with 4 points from 5 matches in 2026/27.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Sunderland are materially behind last season's pace at the same stage.
2026/27: 4 pts vs 2025/26: 8 pts after 5 matches.
Sunderland are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
7 absences; availability impact 36%; injuries 7, suspensions 0.
Sunderland are carrying a weaker full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +30.4 vs last season stage pace +60.8 (-30.4).
Performance Index
Top-line read
Context-driven wobble
Sunderland's downturn lines up with a harsher context than their season norm: tougher opponents, less settled selection, or heavier availability stress. The process dip looks real but not fully structural yet.
Sub-indices
+0.43 xG/90 against the season baseline.
-0.31 xGA/90 better than season norm.
-0.65 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | 08-30 to 09-12 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 5 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.80 |
| Goal diff / game | -1.33 | -0.33 | -0.80 |
| xG for / game | 2.44 | 1.93 | 2.01 |
| xGA / game | 2.08 | 1.53 | 1.77 |
| xG diff / game |
Consistency & variance
Swingy
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is -0.04 per match against the club's best 3-game spell.
Finishing swing is -0.30 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last 3 have come against average opponent rank 2.3, versus 7.4 across the season.
Lineup continuity is +0.07 against the season norm.
What might help
The base process is still closer to good than the scorelines suggest
Recent xG difference is +0.12 against the season baseline, but finishing has swung -0.30 goals per match.
What might help: Keep the attacking structure stable and focus on restoring final-action quality rather than assuming the whole model of play is broken.
The defence is allowing too much before the finish even arrives
Recent xGA has risen +0.31 per match against season level.
What might help: Tighten rest defence and the first line of pressure instead of only reacting to the conceded-goals count.
Best defensive spell
08-22 to 09-05
Sunderland has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 5/5 across the season sample used here.
| +0.36 |
| +0.40 |
| +0.24 |
| Goals - xG / game | -1.11 | -1.26 | -0.81 |
| Defensive delta / game | -0.58 | +0.53 | -0.23 |
| Average opponent rank | 2.3 | 8.3 | 7.4 |
| Average rest days | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Lineup continuity | 42% | 26% | 35% |
| Player load index | 82% | 63% | 72% |
The wobble has come in a tougher-than-normal fixture run
Average opponent rank has shifted from 7.4 over the season to 2.3 in the latest 3.
What might help: Do not overfit the response to a small spell if the opposition quality has also spiked; retest the diagnosis over the next softer block.
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
7 missing players and 36% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.