Top finisher
Mikey Moore
0.31 finisher / 0.27 recent attack
Club hub
Resolving season-matched standings, fixtures, ratings and evidence.
Current state
#20
Team Snapshot
This season against last, table context, rating split, role leaders, the analyst brief and the Performance Index.
Season on season
Tottenham Hotspur are 8 points behind last season after 5 matches: 2 points against 10 in 2025/26, a season they finished #17 on 41 points.
Cumulative points curve & finish-line pace
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1559
⚠ Divergence: 367 pts
Table context
#18 Coventry City
GD -9
3
points
#19 Fulham
GD -3
2
points
#20 Tottenham Hotspur
GD -6
2
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / Managed load
Recent output: 1 goals, 0 assists, 1.1 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 5 straight starts.
Top finisher
Mikey Moore
0.31 finisher / 0.27 recent attack
Top creator
Mohammed Kudus
0.25 creator / 0.30 recent creator
Top connector
Andrew Robertson
0.26 control / DEF
Top protector
Antonín Kinský
0.58 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Jan Paul van Hecke
29 / 100 form / 0.21 recent attack
Highest load
Jan Paul van Hecke
32% load / 29 form
Unavailable context
Analyst brief
Tottenham Hotspur are tracking as their weakest same-stage Premier League return across the last 4 seasons.
Same-stage rank 4/4; worst benchmark 2026/27.
Tottenham Hotspur are #20 now and project to finish #16, with 2 points from 5 matches in 2026/27.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Tottenham Hotspur are materially behind last season's pace at the same stage.
2026/27: 2 pts vs 2025/26: 10 pts after 5 matches.
Tottenham Hotspur are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
4 absences; availability impact 20%; injuries 4, suspensions 0.
Tottenham Hotspur are carrying a weaker full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +15.2 vs last season stage pace +76.0 (-60.8).
Performance Index
Top-line read
Process improving
Tottenham Hotspur's chance differential in this spell is 0.60 xG per match better than their season level, without a finishing collapse offsetting it.
Sub-indices
+0.15 xG/90 against the season baseline.
+0.46 xGA/90 better than season norm.
+0.26 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | 08-29 to 09-12 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 5 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| Goal diff / game | -0.33 | -0.67 | -1.20 |
| xG for / game | 1.31 | 1.11 | 1.16 |
| xGA / game | 1.38 | 1.15 | 1.84 |
| xG diff / game |
Consistency & variance
Variable
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is -0.04 per match against the club's best 3-game spell.
Finishing swing is +0.11 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last 3 have come against average opponent rank 12.0, versus 9.8 across the season.
Lineup continuity is +0.05 against the season norm.
What might help
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
4 missing players and 20% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.
Best defensive spell
08-29 to 09-12
Tottenham Hotspur has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 5/5 across the season sample used here.
| -0.07 |
| -0.03 |
| -0.67 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.65 | -1.11 | -0.76 |
| Defensive delta / game | +0.38 | +0.48 | +0.24 |
| Average opponent rank | 12.0 | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| Average rest days | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Lineup continuity | 35% | 23% | 30% |
| Player load index | 81% | 62% | 71% |