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Club hub

Everton

Deep dive into the live model state for Everton: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.

Current rank
9
Points
0
Goal diff
0
Projected finish
13

Current state

#9

Mid
Power score1528
ClubElo feedClubElo England ratings
xG feedUnderstat cached snapshot
Availability feedManual availability snapshot
Player load feedFPL player load snapshot
Current rank
#9
0 pts
Projected finish
#13
18.8% top 4 probability
Next fixture
Everton vs Crystal Palace
22 Aug 2026, 14:00
Next-fixture edge
42.4%
Everton win probability
Model readiness
Ready
77 XI / 78 load snapshots
Form consistency:Reliable

Team Snapshot

Team snapshot and key signals

Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.

Shot Map

0 goals0 on target0 shots · 0.0 xG+0.0 vs xG
Loading shot data…
Goal On target Off target / blockedCircle size = xG value

Match Phase Breakdown

Loading phase data…

Passing Network

Loading network…

Goal timing

Goal distribution by 10-minute window

33 scored · 33 conceded · 38 matches

Peak scoring window

80-90+' · 0.18/match

Peak conceding window

80-90+' · 0.21/match

0-10'
0.00/match (0)0.00/match (0)
10-20'
0.08/match (3)0.03/match (1)
20-30'
0.05/match (2)0.16/match (6)
30-40'
0.08/match (3)0.08/match (3)
40-50'
0.10/match (4)0.13/match (5)
50-60'
0.13/match (5)0.05/match (2)
60-70'
0.10/match (4)0.08/match (3)
70-80'
0.13/match (5)0.13/match (5)
80-90+'
0.18/match (7)0.21/match (8)

Model snapshot

Current rating split

Internal Elo
1488
ClubElo
1803
Blended Elo
1557

Hybrid Elo Rating

1598

low confidence

⚠ Divergence: 315 pts

Internal 1488External 1803
65%35%
Attack49
Defence53
Recent form50
Availability87

Table context

Where the club sits now

#7 Nottingham Forest

GD +0

0

points

#8 Leeds

GD +0

0

points

#9 Everton

GD +0

0

points

#10 Crystal Palace

GD +0

0

points

#11 Brentford

GD +0

0

points

Fan sentiment

Loading…

Fear — Greed0 · 50 · 100

Role board

Squad role board

Selected role profile

James Tarkowski

DEF / Protector-led / High load

Finisher
6 / 100
Creator
8 / 100
Connector
22 / 100
Protection
64 / 100
Form
0 / 100
Load
88 / 100
Goals
1
0.0 xG
Assists
1
0.0 xA
Starts
29
2610 mins

Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 29 straight starts.

Top finisher

Thierno Barry

0.23 finisher / 0.13 recent attack

Top creator

James Garner

0.14 creator / 0.08 recent creator

Top connector

James Garner

0.28 control / MID

Top protector

James Tarkowski

0.64 defence / Protector-led

Best current form

James Tarkowski

0 / 100 form / 0.04 recent attack

Highest load

James Garner

90% load / 0 form

Unavailable context

Carlos Alcaraz / injurySeamus Coleman / injury

Run-in map

Remaining fixtures and likely haul

probability-led / band-adjusted context
Remaining fixtures
38
16 vs top eight
Expected haul
48.1 pts
1.27 PPG from here
Historical run-in fit
N/A
Historical bucket context still shallow
Run-in fit
Unknown
0 strongest-fit / 0 weakest-fit

Fit read

unknown

Everton's remaining mix is live, but the band-history sample is still thin.

Run-in split uses the live current table snapshot to classify each remaining opponent. Expected points come from match probabilities; historical split PPG is context from Everton's finished matches in the same band and venue split.

Pressure points

8 top-four and 16 top-eight tests remain.

Shape of the run-in

0 fixtures mirror their strongest band split; 0 hit their weakest split.

Fixture board

The model probability is the forward-looking call. Historical split PPG is a context layer from the club’s finished matches against the same opponent band and venue split.

Home / 22 Aug 2026, 14:00

Everton vs Crystal Palace

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.59
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-32-26

Away / 29 Aug 2026, 14:00

Bournemouth vs Everton

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.84
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
19-27-54

Home / 6 Sept 2026, 13:00

Everton vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.33
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-31-35

Away / 12 Sept 2026, 16:30

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.94
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-30-49

Home / 19 Sept 2026, 14:00

Everton vs Ipswich

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.62
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-31-25

Away / 10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Hull City vs Everton

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
43-29-28

Home / 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Everton vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.68
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-31-24

Away / 24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Arsenal vs Everton

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.76
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
16-27-57

Away / 31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Newcastle United vs Everton

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.01
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-30-46

Home / 7 Nov 2026, 15:00

Everton vs Coventry City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.59
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-33-25

Away / 21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Brentford vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.09
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-32-42

Home / 28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Everton vs Liverpool

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.37
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
36-30-35

Away / 2 Dec 2026, 20:00

Aston Villa vs Everton

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.82
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
18-28-54

Home / 5 Dec 2026, 15:00

Everton vs Fulham

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.56
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-33-26

Away / 12 Dec 2026, 15:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Everton

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.03
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-32-45

Away / 19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Everton

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.06
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
25-32-43

Home / 26 Dec 2026, 15:00

Everton vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-33-26

Home / 30 Dec 2026, 20:00

Everton vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.94
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-30-48

Away / 2 Jan 2027, 12:00

Leeds vs Everton

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.03
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-32-45

Home / 6 Jan 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Aston Villa

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.37
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
35-31-34

Away / 16 Jan 2027, 12:00

Coventry City vs Everton

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-31-27

Home / 23 Jan 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Brentford

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.59
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-32-26

Away / 30 Jan 2027, 12:00

Liverpool vs Everton

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.98
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
22-31-46

Home / 6 Feb 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.54
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
41-32-28

Home / 10 Feb 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Leeds

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-31-27

Away / 20 Feb 2027, 12:00

Sunderland vs Everton

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.10
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-33-42

Home / 27 Feb 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #7Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-32-27

Away / 3 Mar 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Everton

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.79
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-28-55

Away / 13 Mar 2027, 12:00

Manchester United vs Everton

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.75
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
16-27-57

Home / 20 Mar 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Tottenham Hotspur

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.61
1-0
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
43-32-25

Away / 10 Apr 2027, 12:00

Crystal Palace vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.27
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
33-28-39

Home / 17 Apr 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.42
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
38-29-33

Home / 24 Apr 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-30-28

Away / 1 May 2027, 12:00

Fulham vs Everton

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.24
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
32-28-40

Home / 8 May 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Hull City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.62
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-31-25

Away / 15 May 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Everton

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-29-42

Home / 23 May 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Arsenal

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.76
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
16-27-57

Away / 30 May 2027, 12:00

Ipswich vs Everton

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.29
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
34-27-39

Analyst brief

Structured interpretation layer

deterministic / evidence-backed

Everton are currently projecting outside the top four.

Everton are #9 now and project to finish #13.

This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.

Everton are currently projecting outside the top four.

Projected finish #13; title 4.5%, top four 18.8%, relegation 15.3%.

projection