Top finisher
Thierno Barry
0.53 finisher / 0.76 recent attack
Club hub
Resolving season-matched standings, fixtures, ratings and evidence.
Current state
#7
Team Snapshot
This season against last, table context, rating split, role leaders, the analyst brief and the Performance Index.
Season on season
Everton are 2 points ahead of last season after 5 matches: 9 points against 7 in 2025/26, a season they finished #13 on 49 points.
Cumulative points curve & finish-line pace
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1618
⚠ Divergence: 322 pts
Table context
#5 Leeds
GD +4
9
points
#6 Liverpool
GD +3
9
points
#7 Everton
GD +3
9
points
#8 Hull City
GD +2
8
points
#9 Newcastle United
GD +0
8
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
MID / Connector / Protector / Managed load
Recent output: 1 goals, 0 assists, 1.8 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 5 straight starts.
Top finisher
Thierno Barry
0.53 finisher / 0.76 recent attack
Top creator
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
0.24 creator / 0.43 recent creator
Top connector
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
0.34 control / MID
Top protector
Jordan Pickford
0.58 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Thierno Barry
48 / 100 form / 0.76 recent attack
Highest load
James Tarkowski
33% load / 35 form
Unavailable context
Analyst brief
Everton are posting their strongest same-stage Premier League return across the last 4 seasons.
Same-stage rank 1/4; best recent benchmark 2026/27.
Everton are #7 now and project to finish #8, with 9 points from 5 matches in 2026/27.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Everton are carrying a stronger full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +68.4 vs last season stage pace +53.2 (+15.2).
Everton are outperforming their own recent three-season pace baseline.
Current pace delta vs recent average: +45.6 points.
Everton's nearest recent benchmark is 2025/26.
Same-stage delta vs that season: +2.0 points, pace delta +15.2.
Performance Index
Top-line read
Mostly finishing slump
Everton's underlying chance differential is still close to season level, but the conversion layer has cooled sharply. The wobble looks more like execution loss than a full tactical collapse.
Sub-indices
+0.08 xG/90 against the season baseline.
+0.54 xGA/90 better than season norm.
-0.88 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 5 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.80 |
| Goal diff / game | +0.33 | +0.60 |
| xG for / game | 1.75 | 1.67 |
| xGA / game | 0.90 | 1.44 |
| xG diff / game | +0.84 | +0.23 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.75 | -0.47 |
| Defensive delta / game |
Consistency & variance
Steady
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is +0.00 per match against the club's best 3-game spell.
Finishing swing is -0.28 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last 3 have come against average opponent rank 14.3, versus 15.0 across the season.
Lineup continuity is +0.07 against the season norm.
What might help
The base process is still closer to good than the scorelines suggest
Recent xG difference is +0.61 against the season baseline, but finishing has swung -0.28 goals per match.
What might help: Keep the attacking structure stable and focus on restoring final-action quality rather than assuming the whole model of play is broken.
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
3 missing players and 12% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.
Best defensive spell
09-06 to 09-19
Unbeaten spell
5-match unbeaten run
Everton has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 5/5 across the season sample used here.
| +0.24 |
| +0.84 |
| Average opponent rank | 14.3 | 15.0 |
| Average rest days | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Lineup continuity | 42% | 35% |
| Player load index | 83% | 74% |