Top finisher
Zian Flemming
0.41 finisher / 0.42 recent attack
Club hub
Resolving season-matched standings, fixtures, ratings and evidence.
Current state
#11
Team Snapshot
This season against last, table context, rating split, role leaders, the analyst brief and the Performance Index.
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1507
⚠ Divergence: 231 pts
Table context
#9 Newcastle United
GD +0
8
points
#10 Chelsea
GD -2
7
points
#11 Ipswich
GD -4
6
points
#12 Manchester United
GD +0
5
points
#13 Nottingham Forest
GD -1
5
points
Fan sentiment
Loading…
Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / Managed load
Recent output: 2 goals, 2 assists, 2.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 5 straight starts.
Top finisher
Zian Flemming
0.41 finisher / 0.42 recent attack
Top creator
Abdul Fatawu
0.30 creator / 0.50 recent creator
Top connector
Abdul Fatawu
0.36 control / MID
Top protector
Kjell Scherpen
0.55 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Leif Davis
40 / 100 form / 0.37 recent attack
Highest load
Leif Davis
33% load / 40 form
Unavailable context
Analyst brief
Ipswich are posting their strongest same-stage Premier League return across the last 2 seasons.
Same-stage rank 1/2; best recent benchmark 2026/27.
Ipswich are #11 now and project to finish #19.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Ipswich are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
4 absences; availability impact 21%; injuries 4, suspensions 0.
Ipswich are outperforming their own recent three-season pace baseline.
Current pace delta vs recent average: +22.8 points.
Ipswich's nearest recent benchmark is 2024/25.
Same-stage delta vs that season: +3.0 points, pace delta +22.8.
Performance Index
Top-line read
Mixed signals
Ipswich's spell is slightly off their season level in one area without a consistent downturn across the others.
Sub-indices
-0.18 xG/90 against the season baseline.
+0.64 xGA/90 better than season norm.
-0.33 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 5 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goal diff / game | -0.67 | -0.80 |
| xG for / game | 1.24 | 1.42 |
| xGA / game | 1.42 | 2.06 |
| xG diff / game | -0.18 | -0.64 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.24 | -0.02 |
| Defensive delta / game |
Consistency & variance
Variable
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is +0.00 per match against the club's best 3-game spell.
Finishing swing is -0.22 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last 3 have come against average opponent rank 9.3, versus 10.8 across the season.
Lineup continuity is +0.07 against the season norm.
What might help
The base process is still closer to good than the scorelines suggest
Recent xG difference is +0.46 against the season baseline, but finishing has swung -0.22 goals per match.
What might help: Keep the attacking structure stable and focus on restoring final-action quality rather than assuming the whole model of play is broken.
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
4 missing players and 21% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.
Best defensive spell
09-04 to 09-19
Ipswich has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 5/5 across the season sample used here.
| -0.25 |
| -0.14 |
| Average opponent rank | 9.3 | 10.8 |
| Average rest days | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| Lineup continuity | 42% | 35% |
| Player load index | 82% | 73% |