Chance-quality status
The variance layer is live, but event-derived shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb seasons are archive material here, not current diagnosis input.
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Core table and fixture data render first. Analyst layers attach progressively after that.
Club hub
Deep dive into the live model state for Nottingham Forest: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.
Current state
#16
Team Snapshot
Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.
Goal timing
28 scored · 34 conceded · 38 matches
Peak scoring window
50-60' · 0.16/match
Peak conceding window
40-50' · 0.24/match
Performance Index
Top-line read
Process decline
Nottingham Forest's recent process has slipped meaningfully versus both their best spell and their season baseline. The downturn is not just finishing noise; chance creation and/or prevention have softened.
Sub-indices
+0.50 xG/90 against the season baseline.
-0.72 xGA/90 better than season norm.
-0.03 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | 10-26 to 11-09 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 38 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.16 |
| Goal diff / game | -0.33 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| xG for / game | 1.79 | 1.45 | 1.29 |
| xGA / game | 2.42 | 0.66 | 1.70 |
| xG diff / game | -0.64 | +0.78 |
Consistency & variance
Variable
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
Event-depth status
Chance-quality status
The variance layer is live, but event-derived shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb seasons are archive material here, not current diagnosis input.
Provider requirement
These PI layers only come back when the product has a current or recent Premier League event provider. Do not read the dormant state as a hidden historical fallback.
Territorial status
Territorial control is paused in live Premier League mode. The free StatsBomb archive in this repo is not current enough to support field-tilt or PPDA claims honestly.
Game-state status
Game-state diagnosis is also paused until a current event feed with score context exists. Historical open-data shots are not being stretched into live 2025/26 stories.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is -1.42 per match against the club's best five-game spell.
Finishing swing is -0.43 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last five have come against average opponent rank 7.0, versus 10.2 across the season.
Lineup continuity is -0.20 against the season norm.
What might help
The base process is still closer to good than the scorelines suggest
Recent xG difference is -0.22 against the season baseline, but finishing has swung -0.43 goals per match.
What might help: Keep the attacking structure stable and focus on restoring final-action quality rather than assuming the whole model of play is broken.
The defence is allowing too much before the finish even arrives
Recent xGA has risen +0.72 per match against season level.
What might help: Tighten rest defence and the first line of pressure instead of only reacting to the conceded-goals count.
Recent trend
Last 3 vs Last 10
| Metric | Last 3 | Last 10 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPG | 0.67 | 1.70 | 1.16 |
| xG for / game | 1.79 | 1.51 | 1.29 |
| xGA / game | 2.42 | 1.73 | 1.70 |
| xG diff / game | -0.64 | -0.22 | -0.42 |
| Execution swing | +0.31 | +1.42 | +0.34 |
Best defensive spell
10-26 to 11-09
Unbeaten spell
8-match unbeaten run
Nottingham Forest has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 38/38 across the season sample used here.
PI-2: Chance-quality shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. The available StatsBomb feed is archival, not current-season evidence. PI-3: Territorial diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb open data is not a current control signal for this product. PI-4: Game-state diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode until a current event feed with score-context shots exists.
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1607
⚠ Divergence: 329 pts
Table context
#14 Leeds
GD -7
47
points
#15 Crystal Palace
GD -10
45
points
#16 Nottingham Forest
GD -3
44
points
#17 Tottenham Hotspur
GD -9
41
points
#18 West Ham United
GD -19
39
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / High load
Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 29 straight starts.
Top finisher
Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz
0.21 finisher / 0.13 recent attack
Top creator
Elliot Anderson
0.13 creator / 0.08 recent creator
Top connector
Elliot Anderson
0.28 control / MID
Top protector
Nikola Milenković
0.64 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Nikola Milenković
0 / 100 form / 0.04 recent attack
Highest load
Elliot Anderson
89% load / 0 form
Run-in map
Run-in outlook unavailable
Remaining-fixture outlook could not be assembled for this club from the current unresolved fixture set.
Analyst brief
Nottingham Forest are materially behind last season's pace at the same stage.
Nottingham Forest are #16 now and project to finish #16, with 44 points from 38 matches in 2025/26.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Nottingham Forest are materially behind last season's pace at the same stage.
2025/26: 44 pts vs 2024/25: 65 pts after 38 matches.
Nottingham Forest are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
5 absences; availability impact 31%; injuries 5, suspensions 0.
Nottingham Forest are carrying a weaker full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +44.0 vs last season stage pace +65.0 (-21.0).
Nottingham Forest are underperforming their own recent three-season pace baseline.
Current pace delta vs recent average: -6.5 points.
| -0.42 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.45 | +0.22 | -0.02 |
| Defensive delta / game | +0.76 | -1.00 | +0.36 |
| Average opponent rank | 7.0 | 7.7 | 10.2 |
| Average rest days | 6.7 | 7.4 | 7.6 |
| Lineup continuity | 50% | N/A | 70% |
| Player load index | 100% | N/A | 100% |
The wobble has come in a tougher-than-normal fixture run
Average opponent rank has shifted from 10.2 over the season to 7.0 in the latest five.
What might help: Do not overfit the response to a small spell if the opposition quality has also spiked; retest the diagnosis over the next softer block.
Selection stability has slipped
Lineup continuity is down -0.20 against the club's season norm.
What might help: Restore a settled spine where possible so the downturn does not become a chemistry problem as well as a form problem.
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
5 missing players and 31% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.