Top finisher
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
0.48 finisher / 0.69 recent attack
Club hub
Resolving season-matched standings, fixtures, ratings and evidence.
Current state
#5
Team Snapshot
This season against last, table context, rating split, role leaders, the analyst brief and the Performance Index.
Season on season
Leeds are 2 points ahead of last season after 5 matches: 9 points against 7 in 2025/26, a season they finished #14 on 47 points.
Cumulative points curve & finish-line pace
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1616
⚠ Divergence: 308 pts
Table context
#3 Brighton & Hove Albion
GD +11
10
points
#4 Brentford
GD +6
9
points
#5 Leeds
GD +4
9
points
#6 Liverpool
GD +3
9
points
#7 Everton
GD +3
9
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / Managed load
Recent output: 2 goals, 0 assists, 1.5 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 5 straight starts.
Top finisher
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
0.48 finisher / 0.69 recent attack
Top creator
Lukas Nmecha
0.22 creator / 0.35 recent creator
Top connector
Anton Stach
0.28 control / MID
Top protector
James Trafford
0.58 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
45 / 100 form / 0.69 recent attack
Highest load
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
32% load / 45 form
Unavailable context
Analyst brief
Leeds are posting their strongest same-stage Premier League return across the last 2 seasons.
Same-stage rank 1/2; best recent benchmark 2026/27.
Leeds are #5 now and project to finish #11, with 9 points from 5 matches in 2026/27.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Leeds are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
4 absences; availability impact 19%; injuries 4, suspensions 0.
Leeds are carrying a stronger full-season points pace than last year.
Projected pace +68.4 vs last season stage pace +53.2 (+15.2).
Leeds are outperforming their own recent three-season pace baseline.
Current pace delta vs recent average: +15.2 points.
Performance Index
Top-line read
Context-driven wobble
Leeds's downturn lines up with a harsher context than their season norm: tougher opponents, less settled selection, or heavier availability stress. The process dip looks real but not fully structural yet.
Sub-indices
+0.42 xG/90 against the season baseline.
-0.10 xGA/90 better than season norm.
-0.13 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 5 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.80 |
| Goal diff / game | +1.00 | +0.80 |
| xG for / game | 1.87 | 1.45 |
| xGA / game | 1.38 | 1.28 |
| xG diff / game | +0.49 | +0.16 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.20 | -0.05 |
| Defensive delta / game |
Consistency & variance
Variable
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is +0.00 per match against the club's best 3-game spell.
Finishing swing is -0.15 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last 3 have come against average opponent rank 9.0, versus 8.8 across the season.
Lineup continuity is +0.05 against the season norm.
What might help
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
4 missing players and 19% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.
Best defensive spell
09-05 to 09-20
Unbeaten spell
5-match unbeaten run
Leeds has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 5/5 across the season sample used here.
| +0.71 |
| +0.68 |
| Average opponent rank | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| Average rest days | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Lineup continuity | 35% | 30% |
| Player load index | 83% | 74% |