Chance-quality status
The variance layer is live, but event-derived shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb seasons are archive material here, not current diagnosis input.
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Core table and fixture data render first. Analyst layers attach progressively after that.
Club hub
Deep dive into the live model state for Leeds: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.
Current state
#14
Team Snapshot
Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.
Goal timing
28 scored · 36 conceded · 38 matches
Peak scoring window
40-50' · 0.13/match
Peak conceding window
80-90+' · 0.18/match
Performance Index
Top-line read
Context-driven wobble
Leeds's downturn lines up with a harsher context than their season norm: tougher opponents, less settled selection, or heavier availability stress. The process dip looks real but not fully structural yet.
Sub-indices
+0.49 xG/90 against the season baseline.
-0.05 xGA/90 better than season norm.
+0.33 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 7 7 matches 100% xG coverage | 03-15 to 05-11 7 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 38 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.86 | 1.24 |
| Goal diff / game | +0.57 | +0.86 | -0.18 |
| xG for / game | 2.06 | 1.89 | 1.57 |
| xGA / game | 1.53 | 0.94 | 1.48 |
| xG diff / game | +0.52 | +0.95 |
Consistency & variance
Variable
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
Event-depth status
Chance-quality status
The variance layer is live, but event-derived shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb seasons are archive material here, not current diagnosis input.
Provider requirement
These PI layers only come back when the product has a current or recent Premier League event provider. Do not read the dormant state as a hidden historical fallback.
Territorial status
Territorial control is paused in live Premier League mode. The free StatsBomb archive in this repo is not current enough to support field-tilt or PPDA claims honestly.
Game-state status
Game-state diagnosis is also paused until a current event feed with score context exists. Historical open-data shots are not being stretched into live 2025/26 stories.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is -0.43 per match against the club's best five-game spell.
Finishing swing is -0.06 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last five have come against average opponent rank 13.0, versus 10.3 across the season.
Lineup continuity is -0.04 against the season norm.
What might help
Current squad stress is a real part of the picture
3 missing players and 16% availability impact are already weighing on the live team state.
What might help: Prioritise role-preserving replacements and rotation management before assuming tactical principles alone will solve the dip.
Recent trend
Last 7 vs Last 10
| Metric | Last 7 | Last 10 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPG | 2.00 | 1.60 | 1.24 |
| xG for / game | 2.06 | 1.68 | 1.57 |
| xGA / game | 1.53 | 1.24 | 1.48 |
| xG diff / game | +0.52 | +0.44 | +0.09 |
| Execution swing | +0.05 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
Best defensive spell
08-30 to 10-24
Unbeaten spell
8-match unbeaten run
Leeds has dated xG coverage for 7/7 matches in the current window and 38/38 across the season sample used here.
PI-2: Chance-quality shot diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. The available StatsBomb feed is archival, not current-season evidence. PI-3: Territorial diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode. Historical StatsBomb open data is not a current control signal for this product. PI-4: Game-state diagnostics are paused in live Premier League mode until a current event feed with score-context shots exists.
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1512
Table context
#12 Newcastle United
GD -2
49
points
#13 Everton
GD -3
49
points
#14 Leeds
GD -7
47
points
#15 Crystal Palace
GD -10
45
points
#16 Nottingham Forest
GD -3
44
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
DEF / Protector-led / High load
Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 9 straight starts.
Top finisher
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
0.25 finisher / 0.13 recent attack
Top creator
Anton Stach
0.15 creator / 0.08 recent creator
Top connector
Brenden Aaronson
0.27 control / MID
Top protector
Gabriel Gudmundsson
0.62 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Joe Rodon
0 / 100 form / 0.04 recent attack
Highest load
Joe Rodon
83% load / 0 form
Run-in map
Run-in outlook unavailable
Remaining-fixture outlook could not be assembled for this club from the current unresolved fixture set.
Analyst brief
Leeds are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
Leeds are #14 now and project to finish #14.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Leeds are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.
3 absences; availability impact 16%; injuries 3, suspensions 0.
Leeds's recent chance creation profile is running ahead of their season baseline.
Recent xG diff +0.34 vs season xG diff +0.09.
Leeds are currently projecting outside the top four.
Projected finish #14; title 0.0%, top four 0.0%, relegation 0.0%.
| +0.09 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.34 | -0.32 | -0.28 |
| Defensive delta / game | +0.39 | +0.23 | +0.01 |
| Average opponent rank | 13.0 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Average rest days | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.5 |
| Lineup continuity | 78% | 87% | 82% |
| Player load index | 100% | 100% | 100% |