Rank 1
Arsenal
Title
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Sensible Stats
Football Forecasting Engine
The sharp, live read on the Premier League.
Forecasting the table, not shouting about it.
55.1%outcome accuracy across 1,140 replayed fixturesTeams
20
Fixtures left
380
Data
football-data.org
Matchday
MW 1
Status
Live
Model controls
Filter the board without flattening it.
Current filter
Club: All teamsSearch: NonePredictions: 380
Season projection
Projected final table
Rank 2
Coventry City
Top 4
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 3
Hull City
Top 4
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 4
Manchester United
Top 4
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 5
Ipswich
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 6
Sunderland
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 7
Nottingham Forest
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 8
Leeds
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 9
Everton
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 10
Crystal Palace
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 11
Brentford
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 12
Tottenham Hotspur
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 13
Manchester City
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 14
Bournemouth
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 15
Brighton & Hove Albion
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 16
Aston Villa
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 17
Newcastle United
Mid
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 18
Liverpool
Bottom 3
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 19
Fulham
Bottom 3
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Rank 20
Chelsea
Bottom 3
57 pts
Played
38
GD
0
Points
57
Simulation
Season probabilities
Manchester City
Proj. range #3–#12 / Avg 59.2 pts
Top 4
35.0%
Top 6
47.3%
Europe
17.9%
Title
11.0%
Relegation
6.9%
Arsenal
Proj. range #3–#13 / Avg 58.4 pts
Top 4
32.8%
Top 6
45.4%
Europe
17.8%
Title
10.3%
Relegation
7.6%
Manchester United
Proj. range #5–#15 / Avg 52.9 pts
Top 4
21.9%
Top 6
31.7%
Europe
15.0%
Title
6.1%
Relegation
13.2%
Aston Villa
Proj. range #5–#15 / Avg 52.9 pts
Top 4
22.0%
Top 6
32.3%
Europe
15.4%
Title
5.7%
Relegation
13.3%
Liverpool
Proj. range #5–#15 / Avg 53.2 pts
Top 4
22.6%
Top 6
33.1%
Europe
16.0%
Title
5.5%
Relegation
12.9%
Newcastle United
Proj. range #5–#15 / Avg 52.7 pts
Top 4
21.1%
Top 6
31.6%
Europe
15.6%
Title
5.3%
Relegation
13.1%
Forecast movement
Champions League & Relegation probability shifts
Arsenal gained 15pp in title probability. Ipswich improved in Champions League race. Fulham safer from drop
Run-in calendar
Who has the toughest road ahead?
Fulham have the toughest run-in on the current lens.
Title race
Who's in the running for the top spots?
Manchester City lead the title race at 11.0%.
Top-four race
Who's chasing Champions League spots?
Manchester City lead the top-four race at 35.0%.
Relegation battle
Who's fighting to stay up?
Chelsea currently in the drop zone.
Mean reversion
Luck or skill? Where the numbers diverge.
Clean board
No team is materially over- or under-converting relative to their xG pace right now. This panel activates when a gap of 27%+ is detected.