Projected Premier League Table, Title & Relegation Probabilities

Sensible Stats

Football Forecasting Engine

Season:

Champions League WC 2026

Forecasting the table, not shouting about it.

Live recordFrozen before kickoffEvery forecast frozen before kickoff, and published

MW6

Fixtures left330

StatusDegraded

Teams

Fixtures left

330

Data

football-data.org

Matchday

MW 6

Status

Degraded

Sentiment, Transfer evidence, xG enrichment, Availability and Expected XI have data-quality gaps. The forecast still runs on the standings and fixture record; these optional feeds may be stale or incomplete.

Model controls

Filter the board without flattening it.

All teams / No search / 330 fixtures in scope.

LiveStandings & fixtures Club HubEvery club, one tap away SeasonProjections & race TrendsForm & momentum Fans VoiceFear & Greed Index SquadStrength & fitness ModelCalibration & logs

Season race

Who's on course right now?

The clubs currently sitting in the title, top-4, and bottom-4 spots, plotted against the pace each finish has historically needed. Updates after every matchweek.

Toggle zones:

Manchester City15
Arsenal12
Brighton & Hove Albion10
Brentford9
Bournemouth3
Coventry City3
Fulham2
Tottenham Hotspur2

Solid lines are each club's actual cumulative points this season — gold for the club on top, greens for the rest of the top four, reds/ambers for the bottom four, each club a distinct shade within its zone (hover or check the label for exactly who). Today's standings decide the zone, not a simulated rank. Dashed lines are the straight-line pace toward the average final points total for that finish across the last three completed Premier League seasons — title 86.7 pts, top 4 77.3 pts, bottom 4 26.8 pts.

Season projection

Projected final table

600

simulations

Edition

Projected Premier League order, average finish and final points forecast from 600 simulations.
Pos	Club	Avg pos	Final pts
1	Arsenal	3.5	86
2	Manchester City	4.8	80
3	Liverpool	6.4	74
4	Manchester United	6.7	67
5	Brentford	8.5	64
6	Aston Villa	9.8	62
7	Brighton & Hove Albion	10.0	60
8	Everton	10.3	58
9	Chelsea	10.4	54
10	Bournemouth	10.6	52
11	Leeds	10.7	51
12	Nottingham Forest	11.6	50
13	Sunderland	11.6	48
14	Newcastle United	12.1	46
15	Crystal Palace	12.5	44
16	Tottenham Hotspur	12.7	42
17	Fulham	13.3	38
18	Coventry City	14.4	30
19	Ipswich	14.7	23
20	Hull City	15.4	16

Avg finish	Club	50% range	Final pts forecast
#3.5	ArsenalTop 4	#1–#5	86
#4.8	Manchester CityTop 4	#2–#6	80
#6.4	LiverpoolMid	#3–#9	74
#6.7	Manchester UnitedMid	#4–#9	67
#8.5	BrentfordMid	#4–#11	64
#9.8	Aston VillaMid	#6–#13	62
#10.0	Brighton & Hove AlbionMid	#7–#13	60
#10.3	EvertonMid	#7–#14	58
#10.4	ChelseaMid	#7–#14	54
#10.6	BournemouthMid	#7–#14	52
#10.7	LeedsMid	#7–#14	51
#11.6	Nottingham ForestMid	#8–#15	50
#11.6	SunderlandMid	#8–#16	48
#12.1	Newcastle UnitedMid	#9–#16	46
#12.5	Crystal PalaceMid	#9–#16	44
#12.7	Tottenham HotspurMid	#9–#17	42
#13.3	FulhamMid	#10–#17	38
#14.4	Coventry CityMid	#12–#19	30
#14.7	IpswichMid	#12–#18	23
#15.4	Hull CityMid	#14–#19	16

Final pts blends the simulated total at that place with completed-season points while evidence is young. 2023/24–2025/26 champions: 91 · 84 · 85 pts; fourth place: 68 · 69 · 65.

What changed from season start

Model v0.11.73 · 2026-09-29

Aston Villa: down 2.3 places · -4.5 ptsBrighton & Hove Albion: up 1.9 places · +3.7 ptsTottenham Hotspur: down 1.5 places · -3.3 pts

• 50 completed league fixtures are now incorporated.
• Opening-phase update: current-season evidence has 26% weight; the immutable season-start forecast remains the 74% baseline until MD19.
• Forecast engine moved from v0.11.52 to v0.11.73.
• The verified manager evidence timestamp changed.
• The confirmed-transfer evidence timestamp changed.
• Input coverage changed for XG, PLAYERLOAD.

This ledger identifies changed evidence and forecast movement; it does not claim any single input caused the full shift.

Simulation

Season probabilities

600 simulated seasons

Arsenal lead this forecast edition at 31.4% title probability.

Why this ordering

Each row reflects the hybrid rating and verified evidence available when this edition was generated. Transfer rumours and fees do not affect the forecast. Input record c3081d72a6.

xg: Understat cached snapshot (20) · availability: SportsGambler availability snapshot (20) · elo: ClubElo England ratings (20) · playerLoad: FPL player load with Understat enrichment (667)

Arsenal

Proj. range #1–#5 / Avg 65.8 pts

title chance 31.4%

Top 4

74.4%

Top 6

85.4%

5th–7th

14.6%

Title

31.4%

Relegation

0.3%

Hybrid rating 1658 · Mikel Arteta, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Bruno Guimaraes in; Ezri Konsa in; Leandro Trossard out; Gabriel Jesus out; Ethan Nwaneri out; Gabriel Martinelli out; Christian Norgaard out · transfer indices -0.124 attack / +0.045 defence / -8 overall

Manchester City

Proj. range #2–#6 / Avg 63.5 pts

title chance 25.4%

Top 4

61.1%

Top 6

73.4%

5th–7th

17.2%

Title

25.4%

Relegation

1.2%

Hybrid rating 1678 · Enzo Maresca, appointed for 2026/27 after Pep Guardiola · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Elliot Anderson in; Iliman Ndiaye in; Enzo Fernandez in; Nathan Ake out; Rodri out; Tijjani Reijnders out; Divine Mukasa out; Savinho out; James Trafford out; Nico Gonzalez out; Omar Marmoush out · transfer indices -0.043 attack / -0.052 defence / -9 overall

Liverpool

Proj. range #3–#9 / Avg 58.8 pts

title chance 8.8%

Top 4

42.0%

Top 6

59.1%

5th–7th

24.5%

Title

8.8%

Relegation

1.8%

Hybrid rating 1584 · Andoni Iraola, appointed for 2026/27 after Arne Slot · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Curtis Jones out; Harvey Elliott out · transfer indices -0.049 attack / -0.032 defence / -8 overall

Manchester United

Proj. range #4–#9 / Avg 58.0 pts

title chance 8.2%

Top 4

37.3%

Top 6

55.1%

5th–7th

25.6%

Title

8.2%

Relegation

1.9%

Hybrid rating 1528 · Michael Carrick, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Andrey Santos in; Youri Tielemans in; Carlos Baleba in; Tyler Fredricson out; Altay Bayindir out · transfer indices +0.104 attack / +0.022 defence / +13 overall

Brentford

Proj. range #4–#11 / Avg 55.2 pts

title chance 3.7%

Top 4

26.4%

Top 6

42.7%

5th–7th

22.8%

Title

3.7%

Relegation

5.8%

Hybrid rating 1548 · Keith Andrews, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Jaidon Anthony in; El Hadji Malick Diouf in; Romelle Donovan out; Frank Onyeka out; Ethan Pinnock out · transfer indices +0.019 attack / +0.049 defence / +7 overall

Aston Villa

Proj. range #6–#13 / Avg 52.1 pts

title chance 5.8%

Top 4

25.4%

Top 6

36.8%

5th–7th

17.0%

Title

5.8%

Relegation

14.9%

Hybrid rating 1479 · Unai Emery, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Joao Gomes in; Aaron Wan-Bissaka in; Alejandro Garnacho in; Andres Garcia out; Lucas Digne out; Ollie Watkins out; Leon Bailey out; Youri Tielemans out; Morgan Rogers out; Ezri Konsa out; Emiliano Martinez out · transfer indices -0.092 attack / -0.197 defence / -29 overall

Brighton & Hove Albion

Proj. range #7–#13 / Avg 53.0 pts

title chance 2.5%

Top 4

22.5%

Top 6

34.7%

5th–7th

17.7%

Title

2.5%

Relegation

12.7%

Hybrid rating 1559 · Fabian Hurzeler, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Pascal Struijk in; Brajan Gruda out; Diego Coppola out; Jan Paul van Hecke out; Danny Welbeck out; Carlos Baleba out · transfer indices -0.148 attack / -0.065 defence / -21 overall

Everton

Proj. range #7–#14 / Avg 51.8 pts

title chance 1.9%

Top 4

13.1%

Top 6

25.6%

5th–7th

19.6%

Title

1.9%

Relegation

9.9%

Hybrid rating 1490 · David Moyes, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Christian Norgaard in; Brennan Johnson in; Beto out; Nathan Patterson out; Dwight McNeil out; Iliman Ndiaye out; Tim Iroegbunam out · transfer indices -0.129 attack / -0.057 defence / -19 overall

Chelsea

Proj. range #7–#14 / Avg 51.6 pts

title chance 2.2%

Top 4

13.9%

Top 6

24.9%

5th–7th

17.3%

Title

2.2%

Relegation

9.0%

Hybrid rating 1490 · Xabi Alonso, appointed for 2026/27 after Liam Rosenior · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Morgan Rogers in; Maxence Lacroix in; Danny Welbeck in; Emiliano Martinez in; Marc Cucurella out; Jesse Derry out; Trevoh Chalobah out; Filip Jorgensen out; Benoit Badiashile out; Mamadou Sarr out; Marc Guiu out; Dario Essugo out; Robert Sanchez out; Andrey Santos out; Alejandro Garnacho out; Liam Delap out; Tosin Adarabioyo out; Enzo Fernandez out · transfer indices -0.134 attack / -0.189 defence / -30 overall

Bournemouth

Proj. range #7–#14 / Avg 51.1 pts

title chance 2.0%

Top 4

13.4%

Top 6

23.7%

5th–7th

16.3%

Title

2.0%

Relegation

8.8%

Hybrid rating 1475 · Marco Rose, appointed for 2026/27 after Andoni Iraola · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Hamed Traore out; Alex Jimenez out · transfer indices -0.012 attack / -0.062 defence / -7 overall

Leeds

Proj. range #7–#14 / Avg 51.3 pts

title chance 1.2%

Top 4

13.2%

Top 6

25.1%

5th–7th

18.4%

Title

1.2%

Relegation

12.0%

Hybrid rating 1508 · Daniel Farke, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Harry Wilson in; James Trafford in; Jack Harrison out; Joel Piroe out; Sebastiaan Bornauw out; Lucas Perri out; Pascal Struijk out · transfer indices +0.002 attack / -0.089 defence / -9 overall

Nottingham Forest

Proj. range #8–#15 / Avg 49.6 pts

title chance 1.0%

Top 4

8.2%

Top 6

16.8%

5th–7th

14.3%

Title

1.0%

Relegation

14.5%

Hybrid rating 1440 · Oliver Glasner, appointed for 2026/27 after Vitor Pereira · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Liam Delap in; Daniel Munoz in; Dilane Bakwa out; Omari Hutchinson out; Zach Abbott out; Morato out; Elliot Anderson out; Taiwo Awoniyi out · transfer indices -0.086 attack / -0.073 defence / -16 overall

Sunderland

Proj. range #8–#16 / Avg 49.5 pts

title chance 1.1%

Top 4

9.4%

Top 6

18.3%

5th–7th

13.6%

Title

1.1%

Relegation

13.6%

Hybrid rating 1477 · Regis Le Bris, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Kevin Danso in; Eliezer Mayenda out; Arthur Masuaku out; Jenson Seelt out · transfer indices -0.049 attack / +0.006 defence / -4 overall

Newcastle United

Proj. range #9–#16 / Avg 48.5 pts

title chance 0.9%

Top 4

7.8%

Top 6

15.5%

5th–7th

12.3%

Title

0.9%

Relegation

15.9%

Hybrid rating 1493 · Matthias Jaissle, appointed for 2026/27 after Eddie Howe · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Nico Gonzalez in; Anthony Gordon out; Alex Murphy out; Nick Woltemade out; Sean Neave out; Sandro Tonali out; Bruno Guimaraes out · transfer indices -0.195 attack / -0.077 defence / -27 overall

Crystal Palace

Proj. range #9–#16 / Avg 48.0 pts

title chance 1.1%

Top 4

7.8%

Top 6

14.6%

5th–7th

10.7%

Title

1.1%

Relegation

18.0%

Hybrid rating 1423 · Pierre Sage, appointed for 2026/27 after Oliver Glasner · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Dwight McNeil in; Rio Cardines out; Borna Sosa out; Justin Devenny out; Maxence Lacroix out; Brennan Johnson out; Daniel Munoz out · transfer indices -0.045 attack / -0.169 defence / -21 overall

Tottenham Hotspur

Proj. range #9–#17 / Avg 47.0 pts

title chance 1.3%

Top 4

9.4%

Top 6

16.8%

5th–7th

11.3%

Title

1.3%

Relegation

24.4%

Hybrid rating 1408 · Roberto De Zerbi, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Mateus Fernandes in; Savinho in; Jan Paul van Hecke in; Sandro Tonali in; Omar Marmoush in; Tosin Adarabioyo in; Radu Dragusin out; Cristian Romero out; Djed Spence out; Guglielmo Vicario out; Souza out; Pape Matar Sarr out; Dane Scarlett out; Kevin Danso out · transfer indices +0.114 attack / -0.103 defence / +1 overall

Fulham

Proj. range #10–#17 / Avg 46.4 pts

title chance 0.8%

Top 4

6.2%

Top 6

12.2%

5th–7th

9.4%

Title

0.8%

Relegation

24.1%

Hybrid rating 1423 · Alvaro Arbeloa, appointed for 2026/27 after Marco Silva · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Raul Jimenez out; Harry Wilson out; Issa Diop out; Sasa Lukic out · transfer indices -0.167 attack / -0.083 defence / -25 overall

Coventry City

Proj. range #12–#19 / Avg 44.3 pts

title chance 0.5%

Top 4

4.6%

Top 6

9.1%

5th–7th

7.1%

Title

0.5%

Relegation

35.3%

Hybrid rating 1396 · Frank Lampard, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Loum Tchaouna in; Frank Onyeka in; Taiwo Awoniyi in; Ethan Pinnock in · transfer indices +0.086 attack / +0.052 defence / +14 overall

Ipswich

Proj. range #12–#18 / Avg 44.1 pts

title chance 0.2%

Top 4

2.5%

Top 6

5.9%

5th–7th

5.6%

Title

0.2%

Relegation

33.7%

Hybrid rating 1428 · Gary O'Neil, appointed for 2026/27 after Kieran McKenna · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Zian Flemming in; Issa Diop in; Sasa Lukic in · transfer indices +0.108 attack / +0.052 defence / +16 overall

Hull City

Proj. range #14–#19 / Avg 42.7 pts

title chance 0.1%

Top 4

1.4%

Top 6

4.1%

5th–7th

4.9%

Title

0.1%

Relegation

42.2%

Hybrid rating 1458 · Sergej Jakirovic, retained · official manager source · verified 2026-10-01 · confirmed: Tim Iroegbunam in · transfer indices +0.034 attack / +0.023 defence / +6 overall

Forecast movement

Champions League & Relegation probability shifts

Manchester City gained 11pp in title probability. Brighton & Hove Albion improved in Champions League race. Aston Villa relegation risk increased

Title Race Movers

Manchester CityTitle+11%

Manchester UnitedTitle-3%

Aston VillaTitle-2%

LiverpoolTitle-2%

ArsenalTitle-2%

Top Four Race Movers

Brighton & Hove AlbionTop 4+12%

Manchester CityTop 4+12%

Aston VillaTop 4-9%

BrentfordTop 4+6%

Manchester UnitedTop 4-5%

Relegation Race Movers

Aston VillaDrop zone+11%

Hull CityDrop zone-11%

Tottenham HotspurDrop zone+11%

Coventry CityDrop zone+10%

Brighton & Hove AlbionDrop zone-5%

Run-in calendar

Who has the toughest road ahead?

Arsenal have the toughest run-in on the current lens.

View by

Arsenal

L@NFE@LHC@NUMC@B

Liverpool

MC@BB&HA@PMU@ES

Brentford

@AVL@HCNF@B&HE@MUA

Nottingham Forest

@PA@I@BMC@BC@HC

Everton

@HCC@A@NUCC@BL@AV

Brighton & Hove Albion

@SP@L@MCB@HCNU@B

Hull City

E@FBI@AB&H@PNF

Manchester City

@LI@AVB&H@NFF@AL

Aston Villa

B@NUMCF@MUS@IE

Manchester United

TH@LB@CAV@LB@NU

Crystal Palace

NF@B&HNU@THL@CCHC@C

Bournemouth

@CS@MUL@INF@FB&H

Newcastle United

@CCAV@PE@FA@B&HMU

Leeds

@AMU@S@BTH@CCC@MC

Sunderland

B&H@BL@CCC@AVTH@L

Coventry City

NU@THFS@EP@LI

Fulham

@IHC@CC@AVNU@MCB@TH

Chelsea

B@ETHMU@SL@NFP

Tottenham Hotspur

@MUCC@CP@LI@SF

Ipswich

F@MCNF@HCB@THAV@CC

The races

Who's in the running for the top spot?

2Arsenal3 pts behind

4 wins

Title

31.4%

Top 4

74.4%

Top 6

85.4%

1Manchester CityLeader

5 wins

Title

25.4%

Top 4

61.1%

Top 6

73.4%

6Liverpool6 pts behind

5 unbeaten

Title

8.8%

Top 4

42.0%

Top 6

59.1%

12Manchester United10 pts behind

Title

8.2%

Top 4

37.3%

Top 6

55.1%

4Brentford6 pts behind

5 unbeaten

Title

3.7%

Top 4

26.4%

Top 6

42.7%

16Aston Villa11 pts behind

4 winless

Title

5.8%

Top 4

25.4%

Top 6

36.8%

Wobble Watch

Arsenalwobble

31.4% title chance

Run-in

Run-in rated brutal — difficulty score 77/100

Congestion

Upcoming congested fixture with only 67h recovery

Liverpoolwobble

8.8% title chance

Run-in

Run-in rated brutal — difficulty score 100/100

Congestion

Upcoming congested fixture with only 66.75h recovery

Manchester Unitedwobble

8.2% title chance

Form

Only 1 win in last 5 — D L D W L

Congestion

Upcoming congested fixture with only 65h recovery

Aston Villawobble

5.8% title chance

Form

Only 1 win in last 5 — W L D L L

Congestion

Upcoming congested fixture with only 67h recovery

Manchester Citywatch

25.4% title chance

Congestion

Upcoming congested fixture with only 67h recovery

Mean reversion

Luck or skill? Where the numbers diverge.

No significant goals vs xG divergence detected across the current table.