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Club hub

Nottingham Forest

Deep dive into the live model state for Nottingham Forest: current standing, projected finish, next fixtures, recent xG momentum, and how ClubElo compares with the internal rating pass.

Current rank
7
Points
0
Goal diff
0
Projected finish
12

Current state

#7

Mid
Power score1515
ClubElo feedClubElo England ratings
xG feedUnderstat cached snapshot
Availability feedManual availability snapshot
Player load feedFPL player load snapshot
Current rank
#7
0 pts
Projected finish
#12
16.5% top 4 probability
Next fixture
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
22 Aug 2026, 14:00
Next-fixture edge
39.8%
Nottingham Forest win probability
Model readiness
Ready
77 XI / 78 load snapshots
Form consistency:Reliable

Team Snapshot

Team snapshot and key signals

Performance Index verdict, rating split, table context, role leaders, shot and pass maps, plus the structured analyst brief.

Shot Map

0 goals0 on target0 shots · 0.0 xG+0.0 vs xG
Loading shot data…
Goal On target Off target / blockedCircle size = xG value

Match Phase Breakdown

Loading phase data…

Passing Network

Loading network…

Goal timing

Goal distribution by 10-minute window

28 scored · 34 conceded · 38 matches

Peak scoring window

50-60' · 0.16/match

Peak conceding window

40-50' · 0.24/match

0-10'
0.08/match (3)0.05/match (2)
10-20'
0.05/match (2)0.08/match (3)
20-30'
0.03/match (1)0.08/match (3)
30-40'
0.08/match (3)0.08/match (3)
40-50'
0.05/match (2)0.24/match (9)
50-60'
0.16/match (6)0.08/match (3)
60-70'
0.08/match (3)0.00/match (0)
70-80'
0.13/match (5)0.10/match (4)
80-90+'
0.08/match (3)0.18/match (7)

Model snapshot

Current rating split

Internal Elo
1469
ClubElo
1822
Blended Elo
1547

Hybrid Elo Rating

1593

low confidence

⚠ Divergence: 353 pts

Internal 1469External 1822
65%35%
Attack48
Defence54
Recent form50
Availability69

Table context

Where the club sits now

#5 Ipswich

GD +0

0

points

#6 Sunderland

GD +0

0

points

#7 Nottingham Forest

GD +0

0

points

#8 Leeds

GD +0

0

points

#9 Everton

GD +0

0

points

Fan sentiment

Loading…

Fear — Greed0 · 50 · 100

Role board

Squad role board

Selected role profile

Nikola Milenković

DEF / Protector-led / High load

Finisher
6 / 100
Creator
8 / 100
Connector
22 / 100
Protection
64 / 100
Form
0 / 100
Load
88 / 100
Goals
0
0.0 xG
Assists
0
0.0 xA
Starts
29
2610 mins

Recent output: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 29 straight starts.

Top finisher

Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz

0.21 finisher / 0.13 recent attack

Top creator

Elliot Anderson

0.13 creator / 0.08 recent creator

Top connector

Elliot Anderson

0.28 control / MID

Top protector

Nikola Milenković

0.64 defence / Protector-led

Best current form

Nikola Milenković

0 / 100 form / 0.04 recent attack

Highest load

Elliot Anderson

89% load / 0 form

Unavailable context

Chris Wood / injuryNicolo Savona / injuryJohn Victor / injuryWilly Boly / injuryStefan Ortega / injury

Run-in map

Remaining fixtures and likely haul

probability-led / band-adjusted context
Remaining fixtures
38
14 vs top eight
Expected haul
49.8 pts
1.31 PPG from here
Historical run-in fit
N/A
Historical bucket context still shallow
Run-in fit
Unknown
0 strongest-fit / 0 weakest-fit

Fit read

unknown

Nottingham Forest's remaining mix is live, but the band-history sample is still thin.

Run-in split uses the live current table snapshot to classify each remaining opponent. Expected points come from match probabilities; historical split PPG is context from Nottingham Forest's finished matches in the same band and venue split.

Pressure points

8 top-four and 14 top-eight tests remain.

Shape of the run-in

0 fixtures mirror their strongest band split; 0 hit their weakest split.

Fixture board

The model probability is the forward-looking call. Historical split PPG is a context layer from the club’s finished matches against the same opponent band and venue split.

Home / 22 Aug 2026, 14:00

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.48
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
40-28-32

Away / 29 Aug 2026, 11:30

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.05
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
25-30-45

Home / 5 Sept 2026, 14:00

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.58
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-30-27

Away / 12 Sept 2026, 14:00

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.93
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-29-49

Home / 19 Sept 2026, 16:30

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.63
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-24

Away / 10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-30-42

Home / 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.04
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-31-45

Away / 24 Oct 2026, 14:00

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.48
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
40-28-32

Away / 31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-29-42

Home / 7 Nov 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.04
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-32-44

Away / 21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.00
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
23-32-45

Home / 28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.72
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-31-22

Away / 2 Dec 2026, 20:00

Hull City vs Nottingham Forest

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.45
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
39-29-33

Home / 5 Dec 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.43
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
38-30-32

Away / 12 Dec 2026, 15:00

Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.16
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Home / 19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Nottingham Forest vs Everton

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.62
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
43-32-25

Away / 26 Dec 2026, 15:00

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.94
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
21-30-49

Away / 30 Dec 2026, 20:00

Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.09
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-32-42

Home / 2 Jan 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Fulham

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.63
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
44-32-24

Home / 6 Jan 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Hull City

Band 1-4Current #3Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.62
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
43-33-24

Away / 16 Jan 2027, 12:00

Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest

Band 13-16Current #13Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.90
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
20-31-49

Home / 23 Jan 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth

Band 13-16Current #14Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.37
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
36-30-35

Away / 30 Jan 2027, 12:00

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

Band 17-20Current #20Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.16
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Home / 6 Feb 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Brentford

Band 9-12Current #11Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.62
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
43-32-25

Away / 10 Feb 2027, 12:00

Fulham vs Nottingham Forest

Band 17-20Current #19Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.14
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
28-31-41

Home / 20 Feb 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United

Band 1-4Current #4Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.30
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
33-30-37

Away / 27 Feb 2027, 12:00

Everton vs Nottingham Forest

Band 9-12Current #9Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.11
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
27-32-42

Home / 3 Mar 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United

Band 17-20Current #17Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.59
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-32-26

Away / 13 Mar 2027, 12:00

Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest

Band 9-12Current #12Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.04
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
24-31-45

Home / 20 Mar 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa

Band 13-16Current #16Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.29
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
33-29-38

Away / 10 Apr 2027, 12:00

Leeds vs Nottingham Forest

Band 5-8Current #8Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.08
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
25-32-43

Home / 17 Apr 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool

Band 17-20Current #18Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.48
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
40-29-32

Home / 24 Apr 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland

Band 5-8Current #6Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.69
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
46-31-23

Away / 1 May 2027, 12:00

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest

Band 13-16Current #15Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
1.10
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
26-31-43

Home / 8 May 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace

Band 9-12Current #10Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.71
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
47-31-22

Away / 15 May 2027, 12:00

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

Band 1-4Current #1Neutral fit
Loss risk
Model expected points
0.77
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Loss risk
17-27-56

Home / 23 May 2027, 12:00

Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich

Band 5-8Current #5Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.67
2-1
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
45-32-23

Away / 30 May 2027, 12:00

Coventry City vs Nottingham Forest

Band 1-4Current #2Neutral fit
Win lean
Model expected points
1.57
1-2
Historical split PPG
N/A
No finished split sample
Likely result
Win lean
42-30-28

Analyst brief

Structured interpretation layer

deterministic / evidence-backed

Nottingham Forest are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

Nottingham Forest are #7 now and project to finish #12.

This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.

Nottingham Forest are carrying a meaningful squad-availability drag.

5 absences; availability impact 31%; injuries 5, suspensions 0.

availability

Nottingham Forest's recent chance creation profile is running ahead of their season baseline.

Recent xG diff +0.00 vs season xG diff -0.42.

performance

Nottingham Forest are currently projecting outside the top four.

Projected finish #12; title 3.7%, top four 16.5%, relegation 18.2%.

projection