Top finisher
Dan Ndoye
0.31 finisher / 0.42 recent attack
Club hub
Resolving season-matched standings, fixtures, ratings and evidence.
Current state
#13
Team Snapshot
This season against last, table context, rating split, role leaders, the analyst brief and the Performance Index.
Season on season
Nottingham Forest are level with last season after 5 matches: 5 points against 5 in 2025/26, a season they finished #16 on 44 points.
Cumulative points curve & finish-line pace
Model snapshot
Hybrid Elo Rating
1586
⚠ Divergence: 337 pts
Table context
#11 Ipswich
GD -4
6
points
#12 Manchester United
GD +0
5
points
#13 Nottingham Forest
GD -1
5
points
#14 Sunderland
GD -4
4
points
#15 Crystal Palace
GD -5
4
points
Fan sentiment
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Role board
Selected role profile
MID / Connector / Creator / Managed load
Recent output: 1 goals, 2 assists, 3.0 expected involvements, 5 recent starts, 5 straight starts.
Top finisher
Dan Ndoye
0.31 finisher / 0.42 recent attack
Top creator
Morgan Gibbs-White
0.32 creator / 0.60 recent creator
Top connector
Morgan Gibbs-White
0.40 control / MID
Top protector
Matz Sels
0.57 defence / Protector-led
Best current form
Morgan Gibbs-White
48 / 100 form / 0.39 recent attack
Highest load
Morgan Gibbs-White
33% load / 48 form
Unavailable context
Analyst brief
Nottingham Forest are underperforming their own recent three-season pace baseline.
Current pace delta vs recent average: -15.2 points.
Nottingham Forest are #13 now and project to finish #12, with 5 points from 5 matches in 2026/27.
This brief is generated only from current structured feeds and season-labelled historical snapshots already loaded in the app. It does not use open-web retrieval or unsupported claims.
Nottingham Forest sit in the middle of their recent Premier League range rather than at an extreme.
Same-stage rank 3/4; best benchmark 2024/25.
Nottingham Forest's nearest recent benchmark is 2025/26.
Same-stage delta vs that season: +0.0 points, pace delta +0.0.
Nottingham Forest are currently projecting outside the top four.
Projected finish #12; title 1.0%, top four 8.2%, relegation 14.5%.
Performance Index
Top-line read
Holding to season level
Nottingham Forest's chance creation, chance prevention and finishing in this spell are all within normal range of their season level.
Sub-indices
-0.05 xG/90 against the season baseline.
-0.09 xGA/90 better than season norm.
+0.33 goals versus xG swing per match.
Waiting for dated territorial pass coverage to score control properly.
Opposition, rest, selection continuity, and current squad stress against the club's own season norm.
| Metric | Last 3 3 matches 100% xG coverage | 08-29 to 09-12 3 matches 100% xG coverage | Season 5 matches 100% xG coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goal diff / game | +0.00 | +0.33 | -0.20 |
| xG for / game | 1.65 | 2.17 | 1.70 |
| xGA / game | 1.09 | 1.28 | 1.00 |
| xG diff / game |
Consistency & variance
Variable
PI-2 treats consistency as part results volatility and part process volatility. The xG and execution spreads show whether the recent run is simply noisier than the club’s usual season shape.
What changed?
Recent xG difference is -0.33 per match against the club's best 3-game spell.
Finishing swing is -0.08 goals per match against the season baseline.
The last 3 have come against average opponent rank 18.0, versus 13.0 across the season.
Lineup continuity is +0.06 against the season norm.
What might help
Chance creation has softened from the club's peak spell
Current xG for is -0.52 per match versus the best 3-game stretch.
What might help: Look for ways to recover central access, cleaner box occupation, or the creator combinations that were present during the stronger run.
Best defensive spell
08-22 to 09-05
Unbeaten spell
3-match unbeaten run
Nottingham Forest has dated xG coverage for 3/3 matches in the current window and 5/5 across the season sample used here.
| +0.56 |
| +0.89 |
| +0.69 |
| Goals - xG / game | -0.98 | -0.83 | -0.90 |
| Defensive delta / game | +0.42 | +0.28 | +0.00 |
| Average opponent rank | 18.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| Average rest days | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Lineup continuity | 41% | 26% | 35% |
| Player load index | 82% | 65% | 73% |